Before the Year 2011 Ends

Supposed to be a November 2011 report, however, it's almost mid-December already and trading days may be halved due to the holidays.  With the ongoing sideways movement of the PSE market, I have started liquidating my earlier positions then enter using technical trends.  Due to the sudden downtrend last September, a lot of stocks started reversing towards a positive trend and so I see this as an opportunity to recalibrate my portfolio.

Below is the new composition of my portfolio.  I have significantly reduced my position in AP due to its laggardness (been holding it for a year) and entered into a lot of faster moving stocks.  I did a lot of short term trades lately and I think I'm doing relatively well considering I'm faster in cutting my losses short and taking profits.  I now practice turtle trading, and I love it!  November losses were neutralized, though a lot of cut-loss trades are yet to come this December care of my repositioning in AP and the more recent drop in PX (due to the Ongpin insider trading hearings).

 I know before that I vowed to limit my stock holdings into probably 5 only; however, my new strategy is to apply trailing stops and take profits at breakout levels.  I do have to remind myself that this would be for a sideways market.  Not sure if this would be doubly effective on a bullish one.

In terms of my Fund Performance, I still beat the index but only more than a 100 basis points.
PSEi:  2.13%
ScIoN: 3.30%


One of the main reasons for my Fund's underperformance (from expected) is the delay in FDC's follow-on offering.  I just hope the Gotianuns or whoever their equities guy is, would start pumping up FDC prices, to be able to offer to the public by 1st quarter next year.

October 2011 Performance

Missed around 3 months of updating since I've been busy and the market was in a slump.  Though it was August that was declared as a "ghost month" in accordance to Chinese beliefs, market decline started a month later.

I have 2 portfolios on my Bloomberg Portfolio tracker.  The first one is on managed funds: a combination of a mutual fund via ATR Kim Eng and BDO Equity and Bond Funds.  I'm quite satisfied with my BDO Funds, it's ATR Kim Eng (aka The Mutual Fund Company) which disappoints.  I plan to redeem all my shares as soon as possible and probably shift it to other accounts.

Portfolio 1 breakdown
BDO Equity Fund:  55%
ATR Kim Eng Fund: 16%
BDO Bond Fund: 29%

I'm really happy with BDO Bond Fund as it is giving me an annualized gain of 10%.  I've got positive returns for all 4 months that I have been invested.  Although, September just gave me a close to 0 positive return, but it was generally due to a market slump.

Portfolio 2:  Self-managed Fund
July was the start of a bull run, however, news on Greece and Europe in general scared all the bulls leading to a huge drop in September.  A 2 month rally which gave me 6% in portfolio gains got erased in just a month.  At the end of October, I am still left with less than a percent difference (loss) compared to my July portfolio.

From a YTD gain of 11.5% at the end of August, my portfolio got wiped out and ended up to -2% in just a month!  I had to liquidate my long-term positions on LC and PX.  My biggest regrettable loss came from a speculative for which I did not cut loss early (WPI).  At least it was just a small position, however I lost around 50% on that.

YTD Performance: (paper)
ScIoN Fund: 3.94%
PSEi: 1.58%
ATR Kim Eng: -1.12%

In terms of cash, I have liquidated a total gain of around 5.53% already.  Reinvested profits are currently at a loss, as shown by a lower paper YTD compared to cash.  I now plan to trade only a fixed amount, and the rest would be placed into high dividend yielding stocks or to be transferred to safer investments.

I am also currently 29% cash, since the PSE is still on a sideways trend.  There seems to be a lot of good buys recently as stocks slowly get up from oversold region.  I'd say, the 4th quarter seems to be a good time to go back to the market.  I don't expect a bull run yet, but at least there are lots of upsides now as compared to the downsides.

Picks of the Week [August 15 - August 19]

Didn't blog the pats 2 weeks since I got busy with midterm exams.  August has been thought of being a bad month for stocks due to the "ghost month" effect which is predominantly a Chinese belief.   Seems like it was true enough as global markets plummeted just as the PSEi have just reached its historical high.

At the end of the 2nd week, I am very much glad that my portfolio went back up to my normal levels of paper profits.  This is all thanks to mining c/o LC and PX albeit being just a minor portion of my portfolio (at around 10% each).  I am still bullish with my current holdings, what worries me is my UITF which suffered greatly during the crash.  Technically, I should have cut my losses at this point, however, there seems to be a chance that it could also recoup its losses within the month.  Right now, it is still only the Philippine mining sector that makes the market alive.  Once the property sector kicks in, then the bullish party is on.

What is my pick for the week?  Most probably mining.

July 2011 Performance

I shall now adopt the use of NAVPS (Net Asset Value Per Share), just like the ones used in mutual funds, in monitoring the performance of my portfolio.  The reason behind this is that investment funds may come in and out of my portfolio; thus, it would be hard to automate the percentage gains and losses.  By applying a NAVPS system, the performance of the fund would no longer be dependent on the nominal value of the investment.

And so to be consistent, I have set my YTD (Year to Date) at June 2011 with a par of 1000 per share.  Anything above 1000 means a gain from my initial investment fund as of the start of the midyear.  So far this is the result:

July 2011 NAVPS:  1051.6849  --> a 5.17% gain from June.  July marked the start of the bullish trend of the PSE, as the index broke out of its consolidation pattern (sideways trend).  Hopefully, the bullish performance shall continue as I have increased my exposure in equities up to 70% (of my asset portfolio). 18% is in a bond fund and the rest on savings.

Below is the distribution of my trading portfolio c/o Bloomberg:

The biggest chunk remains to be AP (Power) which comprises 23.11% of my portfolio, followed by FDC (Holdings) and LC (Mining) at 17.67% and 13.66% respectively.

LPZ is a non-performer as I got stuck with it, but there seems to be a trend forming now, hopefully towards the upwards direction.  NI was mainly a technical play; however, I just got caught in its bullish trap.

Picks Of the Week [July 18- July22]

Last week, the PSEi opened lower for the first 2 days before shooting back up towards a new high on the last day.  Truly, I did enter into UITF Equities on a high price, but with the confirmed bullish momentum, I still feel safe and now am glad that my portfolio is already all green.  As the index is now on a new trend, I just hope it wouldn't just float sideways.

I may be busy this week and with my current holdings divided into a number of stocks, I will only concentrate on shifting my funds to the winners (those showing good positive trends).  Seems like 3rd liners are keeping the market afloat, with different kinds of news on backdoor listings.  I now keep my watch on just 1 stock this week, namely ALCO.

As shown in the Force index, there have been significant interest on this stock last Friday, breaking out from the kumo with considerable volume and a bought up price.  Big caution though, since this stock is most probably heavily jockeyed.  This is more of a short-term play, to take advantage of spiked price trades.

Good luck!

Picks of the Week [July 11-July 15]

 

I am now in the 2nd phase of my investment experiment involving the timing of the market via the use of Equity Fund investments.  1st phase was to identify and confirm that the market is on its bullish state. 

The Strong Buy indicator pointed around 5 days ago, however it took a day of hesitation plus another day to withdraw my Money Market funds before finally shifting it to Equity Fund.  The delays led me into buying at a high.

Hopefully the trend is truly bullish for at least a month (of course the longer the better) in order for me to gain.  The latest candlestick may indicate a bullish inverted hammer, which requires higher prices than today's close at 4391.  So far, Equity Fund is at -0.50%.

Right now, I am 70% invested on Equities.  With the recent bailout of Greece (although temporarily as it is also seen as a soft default) and good jobs numbers in the US, I hope next week would be another green week.  Unfortunately, as of this writing, DOW is -.97%.  Probably it is the long due correction, and the PSEi would just mind its own business.

The Philippines' business climate is rosy as ever, with favorable credit ratings (already near investment grade) and looking forward to earnings releases, these should be enough to drive the market up high.  The minor bottleneck regarding foreign ownership ratios on some companies have been resolved through PLDT's issuance of voting preferred shares.

As for my trading plan for the week (involving current holdings):

Strong Buys would be FDC and TA which I would buy on dips (5 and 1.11 respectively).

On my watchlist is ELI due to its very huge volume buy today.  If ever it gets to dip at its major SPT at .73, it would be worth looking for a buy.

June 2011 Performance

June was a rollercoaster ride as stocks went down then came back up, retracing from a slightly downward channel.  Cash out profits actually came from cash dividends based on May's ex-dates.   Good thing these dividends were bigger than my losses for the month of June.  These losses primarily were due to AT.  Ironically, it was a bear trap as AT bullied itself through becoming one of the current flavors in the market nowadays.  I nearly did the same thing with PX, fortunately I wasn't that fast enough to cut my losses yet.  PX and AT rose and broke some new highs at the end of this month.

Halfway through the month, my portfolio was at a negative diminishing all gains up to the beginning of the year.  Thankfully, there was a technical rebound bringing back my gains; and hopefully, creating a new bull session after breaking out of the channel.

My portfolio grew around 2.11% from last month, lower from May's performance of 6% (best month so far).  Anyway, a gain is a gain.

My YTD (Year to date) performance compared to the PSEindex and my mutual fund (ATR Kim Eng) is as follows:
ScIoN Fund:   4.92%
PSE Index:      1.15%
ATR KimEng: 0.61%

Pretty much very nice to see since I could somewhat say I have "beaten the market"... for now. :D  But I do know a lot more people who has more impressive portfolio gains ranging from the 20s up to near 100% gain (undiversified).

My current portfolio composition:

June
AP	22.9%
FDC	12.7%
TA	9.4%
LC	8.9%
PX	8.7%
URC	6.4%
LPZ	6.3%
MPI	3.5%
OV	3.5%
SCC	3.3%
Exposure	85.8%

As for Sector composition:
Oil & Energy: 39.09%
Mining: 17.68%
Holdings: 22.5%
Food: 6.4%
Cash: 14.2%

Picks of the Week [July 4-July 8]

Next week's going to be exciting!  Take a look at the chart below:


Breakout!! :D
1.) Above MACD zero signal line
2.) Both above sideways and immediate down trend channel
3.) Kichou span cross signaling a strong BUY
4.) Senkou span cross (leading signal)
5.) Prices trading above moving Averages. 

Perfect!
The problem is, I need to enter my funds ASAP into the BDO Equity Fund before momentum dries out.  Might take 2 days delay. :(

As for my picks next week, there are lots of them:
1.) MPI - Took profits at 3.69 but I plan to buy back for some more. :D
2.) EDC - entered earlier and my selling bids got hit.  With the strong volume earlier, this is a good re-buy.
3.) TA - a strong finish yesterday, too bad I didn't exceed my selling bid, but still I got some profit for around 12% gain.  Will buy more ammo for this one as I consider this among my core stocks.
4.) PX - another core stock, currently doing a parabolic rise.  I don't even know when to sell!  Instead, I plan to add more.
5.) GERI - Interesting volume today and a kumo breakout.  Will consider this stock once the dust clears.  (I am holding 10 stocks which is already time-consuming to manage).

Waiting for the Bull [June 27-July 1]

I guess "pick of the week"s (POWs), which are heavily based on Technical analysis, are effective only on a bullish market since all you have to do is pick the fastest horse.  As for a sideways market, anything goes.  Fundamental analysis is still champion.  And of course on a down market, just avoid, take profits and cash out.

I'm around 20% cash right now, waiting for confirmation of a bull market.  Right now, prices seem to be near resistance and I hope it will break.  I'm waiting at around 4340 before I go bullish.  Still thinking if I'm willing to put 90% of my assets into equities by then.

This week, stellar performance shown by the mining sector, especially AT and PX.  Too bad I got out with AT with a loss, good thing I still have my PX.  Seems like one can't be wrong with a long position in mining.

Picks of the Week [June 21-June 24]

This week's a short one due to today's holiday with respect to the Philippines' National Hero, Dr. Jose Rizal on his 150th birthday.  I wouldn't mind the short trading time since the market is still on sideways anyway.

I am still guarding in on my current holdings, not being able to check a lot of stock charts for this week.  The stock that I have that seems to have potential in going up would be AP as evidenced by the strong close last Friday.

Investors should be wary though, since this may only be temporary especially when forced closings are not sustainable.  But looking on Friday's data, S.B. Securities and DBP-Daiwa were responsible from the sudden jump of the stock's prices, considerably with volume.  I see this as a bullish sign.  Interestingly, DBP-Daiwa seems to be shifting its funds to AP and SCC, both of which I have.

*  I am happy to discover ChartNexus which offers its charting software for free, with PSE data also available.  If only its add-on, XpertTrader is also free, then I would be able to automate my trading system. hehehe

Picks of the Week [June 13-June 17]

The Market still does not seem good especially with the near-200 hundred drop in DOW at the end of this week.  PSEi might follow suit and break the support at 4180.

Last week's pick did not fare well as AT touched support at 16.9.  I have to cut my losses on this stock, unless it suddenly goes up on Monday.  Volume on Wednesday shows that sellers might still follow through.

I am sort of bearish since last week, but I have noticed MER's technicals to be good.  MACD buy signal plus a cross on 20SMA over 50SMA confirming the up trend.  There have been news reports about a possible joint project with one of Warren Buffet's investment firms regarding LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas).  Some developments regarding increase of rates and decrease in fees might have helped in making the prices go up.  I tried entering last week at 266, but couldn't catch up as it went straight to 279.  Will wait further on dips at 272.4.

Picks of the Week [June 6-June 10]

Last week, my sole pick was PX for the continuation of the mining play and for the PPC dividend, a way of listing by introduction of Philex Petroleum.  I did buy PX on the first 2 days of the week, doubling my position in the process.    PX prices was volatile as it reached a low of 20 to a high of 21.75.  Closing price was at 20.45, a bit lower than my average cost at 20.58.  21.75 can be set as a Resistance for now, and I aim to unload some shares near that price.

As the PSEi only shows a sideways trend, with current prices seem to be correcting, I am looking to sell most of my current holdings.  Selling at strength, to protect and to realize profits.  If ever the index breaks that range resistance, then I'm definitely putting up all of my other cash into BDO's Equity fund. :D

On the weekly charts, AT seems to be this week's top pick due to the BUY signal generated from its MACD oscillator.  Its immediate RST at 18.2 may be hurdled upon for a breakout.  Not to be outdone by the mining trio, PX/LC/MA which had gained a lot these past few weeks,  AT has a story of its own in the name of the Berong Nickel mines.

May 2011 Performance

I'm getting the hang of using excel and so I hope that my posts and record-keeping will be more organized.  I had 14 trades for the month of May, quite a lot for a month I guess.  Well, I really had the time to trade since it's our summer break.

Month to month performance:

Equity rose by 6%.  

1.68% of it were realized through cash.

For what matters most is my YTD (Year to Date) Performance in which I reinvested all my gains from last year:

Realized gains is at 2.88%.

Equity at 2.76%.

--> Equity percentage being lower than the realized gain, means that my portfolio is a bit down due to the currently sideways market.

Composition of stocks

AP	21.0%	-2.38%
FDC	13.0%	-1.61%
TA	9.7%	-14.86%	SRO shares not yet included which would reduce the loss.
LC	9.1%	6.13%
PX	8.9%	-0.94%
URC	8.8%	14.42%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
AT	6.8%	1.19%
LPZ	6.5%	-2.24%
SCC	3.4%	-4.43%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
Exposure	87.1%

 

 Remaining 12.9% is Cash which is pretty much standard for me as this is the allocated portion for my "revolving fund".  The colored figures on the right is the actual standing of my holdings, whether it is up or on the negative.

The next table shows my exposure with respect to industry.

Power	24.4%
AP	21%
SCC	3.4%
Oil	9.7%
TA	9.7%
Mining	24.8%
LC	9.1%
PX	8.9%
AT	6.8%
Holdings	19.4%
FDC	13.0%
LPZ	6.5%
Commodities
URC	8.8%

  Shows that I am now a bit heavy on Mining and Power which when combined takes half of my portfolio.  I was able to get out of certain stocks which I held for a long time.  Most of my current stocks are relatively new ones, and that explains why most are in the red -- due to slight correction.  I got shaked out of EDC, which was one of my core stocks.  Unfortunately for me, it was just a bear trap when it touched 6.3s going back up to as high as 6.8.

I can say I am more confident with my portfolio as compared to before.  All thanks to technical analysis and some trend following pointers I have learned.  Looking forward to the coming days!

Picks of the Week [May 30-June 3]

My choices for last week were BEL and AT.  However, due to the general slump of last week's index these 2 stocks also followed in the decrease of stock prices.  BEL for last week was more of a "cautious buy" since there have been no breakouts yet.  During the first 2 days of trading, prices went back to support level; thus, no buy orders were made.

As for AT, I made a mistake interpreting the chart.  My labeling of a "bullish flag" was incorrect, and should have just been a range trade.  As a result, I entered at a slight high of 17.70, instead of just waiting at a lower price near 17.21.  Good thing I entered with just a small position.

For this week, I only have 1 pick and it is PX.  With the upcoming stock dividend in terms of new PPC (Philex Petroleum) shares and a breakout for a new high w/ volume, this is definitely a top pick for me.  I entered with a small position because I felt I was a bit late, even buying at the close.  I guess that's the price to pay with holding a lot of stocks (more or less 10), gives difficulty in terms of monitoring.  Since this is a strong buy for me, I am still waiting for dips near 20.  I just saw the 10 year chart and wow, in hindsight, PX has been a very good investment through the years!

For this week, I tried using the weekly charts instead of just the dailies.  This would be a great exercise for me to not only be dependent on daily charts.  Besides, if I am going to speculate for 1 week, it makes more sense to use the weeklies.

And since I had some sort of trouble monitoring all my current holdings plus waiting for "promising" stocks, this time around, I'll just concentrate first with what I already have.

SELL
EDC- sell on strength.  slower upward channel after breaking UT. RST at 7.17 but might fall down to 5.67. [sell at 6.52 or 6.38]
SCC - correction- downward channel .  sell at RST at 222.26 or at least 214.11. Possible to go down further

HOLD
AP- downward channel to sideways since Nov 10. Range trade SPT at 25.86, lighten at 32.7.  Major SPT at 23.45 (130SMA). 
FDC- major RST at 7.7 (old high). UT still intact and in line with 130SMA.  Start buying if it reaches at least 4.8.  Weak DMI (+)
URC- potential cup and handle. major RST at 46.9 (high). SPT at 65 SMA at 37.79.

Strong BUY
LC- strong DMI (+).  cautiously buy at .78 (dips).  SPT at .74; RST at .93
PX - strong DMI (+).  breakout from new high.  buy near 20 SPT.

Cautious BUY
AT - sideways to up.  R1: 17.68; R2: 20.17.  major SPT at 14.86.  wait for breakout to buy (hammer and buy MACD signal). 
LPZ - UT intact.  retesting major RST 6.6. DMI gaining strength (+).  trend line SPT at 5.61. start to buy at 6.2 to 5.99
TA- must hold 1.05 SPT.  sideways from 1.05 to 1.38.  wait further for a bounce before buying near 1.05


On Monday, TA Stock Rights offer at Php1 will be given. 

Picks of the Week [May 23-27]

A review on last week's picks:
1.) CEB - maintained its support at 93.77 and is still slowly going up.  I did not pursue getting in since I am not yet comfortable with the fundamentals of the airline industry.  Yet, out of the picks last week, this is the only stock that remained true to its promise (technically).
2.) JGS- Despite breaking out from its previous high, this stock formed a bull trap instead of moving up.  A bit strange since CEB and URC have been performing well recently.  There might be news that I am not aware of.  I saw weakness since the start of the week; thus, did not pursue in getting in.  Now it's back at gaining momentum in order to break the same resistance.
3.) ELI - It's really hard to apply technical analysis on a speculative stock, especially with weak/erratic volume.  Breakout was a failure as prices went back into range trading.

Maybe next time, I should study the weekly charts instead of the dailies for my Picks of the Week.


Picks of the Week [May 23-27] - still using daily charts though

1.) BEL - Crossed the MACD zero line having a minor breakout and with considerable volume.  Support at 5.6 and Resistance at 6.1.  Possible range trading for now.  A breakout from resistance would be a strong Buy.  BEL has been consolidating since the start of the year after soaring along with LR for its casino play.  There had been a delay with their plans which resulted to this sideway trend.  Seems like the jockeys are in play.

2.) AT - The trading halt of the trio PX/LC/MA last May 11 gave AT some chance to absorb the greed of those who wanted to enter Mining.  As trading resumed for the 3 stocks, AT remained to gain momentum for at least 3 days before having some slight correction.   AT has broken out from its downward trend and has formed a bullish flag with a long pole.  Seems like AT is now catching up with its peers after being a laggard for months.

Picks of the Week [May 16-20]

Mining play is still hot, but I expect further retracement after last week's disclosure on PX, LC and MA.  For this week, seems like Gokongwei stocks are poised to impress.

1.) CEB - Clearly shows a turnaround months after the infamous IPO at 125.  Now, with oil prices expected to go down, this is a chance for this budget airline's stock to go back up.  Going back to 125/share as it is reportedly the fair value of the company? Charts show a breakout from resistance which would lead to at least  115 in the short term.

2.) JGS - Already breached its a new high; the sky might be the limit for this stock.  As observed with the stock prices of its subsidiaries, particularly CEB and URC, the mother hen would likely go up.  Not to mention DGTL's movement on June which could finally go beyond 1.6/share after PLDT buys what it promised.

 

 

3.) ELI - Not a Gokongwei stock, but instead a Tan's.  Charts show that it's time to shine for this one as it broke out of a descending triangle with considerable volume.  MACD is already in a positive region.

 

 

 

Let's see what would be my batting average for this week.

Caveat! :)

7 Month Breakout for Lopez Holdings

Entered today on LPZ due to a breakout from a 7-month high.  As shown in the DMI, the up trend is strong; thus, would likely to continue further.  Breakout point is at 6.62, and ATR has been heavily buying at 6.66.  Hopefully they would provide enough support before the stock price goes high.  Prices closed strongly at 6.7.

On the fundamental side, MVP expressed his intent on increasing his hold on MER.  This may be one of the reasons for its bullish stride since LPZ is ready to sell its remaining stake of the power distribution company at a premium.  I think it is somewhere around 300-350 per share or even higher. (related news - Jan 2011).  On the contrary, as I was scouring the net for the latest news on the possible sale, it seems like the Lopez group would still like to hold on to its remaining board seat in Meralco. (news as of May 11 2011).  Interesting, huh?

Anyway, even without the Meralco story, LPZ have solid earnings coming from its subsidiaries such as ABS and FPH (parent of power generator FGEN).  Though for the comparison of earnings between 2009 and 2010, it should be noted that FPH has sold some of its shares of MER to the Pangilinan group (non-recurring income).  For the long term, LPZ can also be a turnaround story as they aim to wipe out their 100 million deficit by this year. 

This is just a momentum play for me now.  Will apply some trend following rules.

April 2011

Took a lot of losses this month as I am now enforcing discipline into my trading plan.  Finished the 2 part lecture on Technical Analysis provided by COL.  I find it very effective especially the observance of the 1:3 risk reward ratio. 

Despite the cut losses, the equity value on my portfolio rose to as high as 6%, mostly thanks to EDC and PX.  FDC is also now on the positive region.

Despite my earlier plan to just keep a minimum of 4 stocks to trade, I don't think it is no longer possible for me.  Right now, I am holding 8-10 stocks at a time.  About 3 of which are my core (AP, EDC, FDC, AMC), while the rest are for momentum plays.  PX is a leftover hold, yet gives me significant gain which even reached up to 30%.  URC, TA and FLI are my latest stocks and I hope they would not disappoint.  AGI has been a laggard, as I was not successful in range trading this stock.

April performance:
Cash: -0.91%
Equity:  +5.83%

Watchlist (April 25-29)

Here is my watchlist for the trading after the Holy Week (April 25-29).  Updated comments are in Blue (as of day 1 - April 25)

Will try to update this later, and see if my analyses have been correct. These are based on technical analysis.

Watchlist:
Immediate:
FDC - buy more at 4.91 - Stingy bid as the lowest price for the day is 5.02 (heavily weighted at 5.05). Closed at 5.07 (day 1)
MPI - buy if breakout from 5 mo. downtrend at 3.93 sell if 3.79 (nearing breakout level)
EDC - buy if breakout at 6.83.  Sell if bounce down.  SPT at 6.5(bounce from ST trendline support)
MA - buy 15k at 0.036 31% fib retracement after high volume - lowest was .037. maintain bid. closed at .039
URC - 36.13 madc uptrend and buy  - 37.2 (fib 38% from high); bought at 37.25, closed at 37.4 (day1) buy again if it exceeds 37.48. TP : 40
TA - buy at 1.3 (50% retracement and at support) 25k - lowest at 1.31 close at 1.34
AGI - SELL -   11.94 - day's high was only up to 11.92
MEG - breakout ascending triangle - 2.37 strong trend from DMI 25k (verify FA) - buy less than 2.41 strong DMI; TP: 2.54
RLC - breakout from 5 mo. downtrend.  buy at 13.38 (verify FA) - change buy at near SPT 13.04. channel to sideways at 13.96
LPZ - 5.75 breakout from previous high and after a flag. off to bullish DMI - opened at 5.84; close at 6.04.  weak dmi.  Just wait until it corrects to 5.78
FLI- breakout from 5 month downtrend. buy at 1.27 - buy at 1.3  - 1x risk. opened at 1.32 high at 1.35

Indifferent:
HLCM - buy at support at 12.62.  low volume though - Open and Close 13; highest at 13.4. sideways with RST at 13.85
CMT - buy if convincing volume/breakout. currently at ST support 1.64 - rising wedge leading to sideways.  must not break 1.62
BEL -  (sm owned 66%)  Casino project by end of year  - support for sideways  catch for falling knives at 5.31 RST at 6.11 - sideways at 5.32 to 6.12 (day 1 close at 5.67) buy at 5.47
PX - HOLD; sell if cross with 16SMA - sell if below 17.67, else LT TP at 19.42

Avoid:
LC- .524 -50% retracement - too high - revisit if at .56
LCB - .57 50% retracement - too high - revisit if near .64
SCC - down trend channel -revisit if near 230
ICT - 45.39 (still on a high) overbought - revisit if it reaches 47
SECB - revisit if it breakouts 98 

ORE - avoid - 5 mo downtrend

TA

Finally, was able to attend COL's Technical Analysis seminar (part I).  The TA seminars are usually scheduled on the afternoon; and since now is my summer vacation, I already have time to attend.  Part I focuses more on the trends and patterns in charts.  Oscillators and indicators have not been discussed yet.

Though I have self-taught myself in TA, there are still lot of methods I have to correct on my system.

Speaking of TA, its namesake stock has already breached its breakout point coming from a symmetrical triangle.  This, considering with an increased volume is a definite BUY for me.  I have posted my GTC order at its 50% fibonacci drop off.  I hope I could get some before it goes high flying soon.

March 2011 Performance

I am now going back closely to my previous high with regard to the amount of my equities.  Starting around November, Philippine stocks buckled away from its bullish trend as it underwent consolidation.  I even added up on my capital at the start of the year, which in hindsight was not good timing since prices continued to go down.

Mutual fund companies posts an average of around -3% YTD gain.  Based on my COL account, my YTD gain is -0.66%, already quite close to break-even.  If I am able to maintain this rate, dividend income coming in this April would be able to lead me out of the negative region.  This is definitely a relief for me since I have experienced reaching higher losses up to more than 10% during the first 2 months.

As per month-to-month performances, cash earnings went up by 1.23% while my total equity portfolio improved by 2.62%.  Below are the list of current stocks that I have:

Core:  (Long term investment based on growth potentials and that are heavily traded)
AP
EDC - after consolidating for many months.  It seems 2nd quarter would be EDC's time to shine.

Value: (Usually less liquid stocks but has growth potentials or is extremely undervalued)
AMC
FDC - I plan to accumulate more at 4.2 levels.  The firm would at one point, need to jack up its stock prices before its SRO.  They need to increase their float before November 2011, or else tax incentives as a listed company would be forfeited.  There are also plans for East West banks IPO this year.

Speculative:
PCOR - Bought this due to current prices of oil being high.  Unfortunately bought at a high, and I'm still not sure if it was the right thing to do during the time.  PCOR is more on oil distribution.  Could've explored more into oil drilling business instead (i.e. PERC)
PX - Bought this due to rumors on the PX and MA deals.  PX was relatively less risky as compared to MA, although I think MA should benefit more from the deal.  Latest news reveal that if ever the deal would push through, PX would get 60% while MA would get 40% on their deal on MA's mining rights.  Capital expenses would be provided by PX though.

Swing:
AGI - Trading at a range from 11.3 to 12.  I'll take advantage of it in order to lessen my losses.

MUSX --> Greenergy

I have been constantly looking for stocks to trade, either for value investing or for some punting.  Even before when I was just simulating my trades, I have been playing around with MUSX since it has a little bit of predictability on its share prices.  Short term trading is possible since the price of the shares are not that volatile.

What piqued my interest with this stock is on its future plans as a company.  Based on recent disclosures, MUSX is already divesting from its semiconductor businesses, and is actually changing its name from Music Semiconductors to Greenergy Holdings, Inc.  The new name seems to be connected to renewable energy.

I am thinking, at current levels, the stock may be so undervalued given the potential of the company's rebirth. If one buys at 0.067, even small amounts of increase would give tenfolds of profit.  Interesting...

I just don't know what are the possible effects of a high free float level (96%).  This lessens the financial flexibility of the company in terms of equity issues.

Below is the chart for MUSX:

Note that the MACD and RSI show a bearish divergence pattern.  I just don't know if it would hold true in the future.  I wish I could have insider info on this. :D

February 2011

Been busy these past weeks due to midterm exams.  At least for now, I am into longer terms of trading since guarding the price movements of stocks everyday is just time-consuming.

Ms. Market at the start of March generated positive gains in my portfolio.  My February month-end report should have been on a stalemate (could've been more negative) if not for the last minute rise in prices.  Portfolio moved up by 4.14% despite actual cash loss at -0.75%.  My only sale trade for February was on the repositioning of my losing MPI stock, which I placed into PCOR for some oil play.

Here is a quick rundown my current holdings:
Core:
AP (22%) - I'm very happy now with AP because of its very very strong earnings, leading to generous cash dividends with an ex-div date this March.  I love its 1.32 per share, a 4.4% dividend yield!
EDC (21.5%) - Still struggling with this one as current prices are still below my cost.  Earnings report scheduled to come out this March 25!

Momentum Play:
AGI (16.8%) - Was able to average down once, bringing down my cost.
DMC (12.14%) - Seems to be stronger than AGI due to strong developments with Maynilad and DMCI contracts.
PX ( 11.39%) - Talks with MA/MAB for some mining projects plus an increase in Gold price led me to this decision of buying this stock.
PCOR (5.18%) - Bought this stock for some oil play.  Market generally went down due to crisis in the Midwest, which may affect oil supply in the future.

Long Term/Dividend Play:
AMC (6.36%) - Despite growth in revenues and dividends in March, this stock still sticks around the 13 peso range.
FDC (4.47%) - Quite a shame for this stock as it went down as much as near -30%!  I'm still not quite sure if I should buy more of this, perhaps if there are still available funds to infuse.  Probably needs more research on the sugar industry, East West Banking (possible IPO), and the secondary offer of shares in order to increase its outstanding shares.

Mining Play

I did this before with ORE and was quite successful with it.  Lately, MA has been enjoying substantial increase on its prices due to the news that PX has been interested on one of its mines.  I am tempted to get some MA shares because of this, but as soon as PX had a mysterious drop yesterday, PX seemed like a bargain for me.

I was able to buy near the low at 14.3, with ATR being a major seller this morning.  Despite the positive news on the earnings of PX and the nearing ex-dividend this March, major brokers (foreign) went out and shifted towards AEV.  The MCPI has reportedly adjusted the weights of involved stocks, and AEV greatly benefitted from it.  Meanwhile, ICT and PX bore the decrease in prices due to the lessening of their weights.

I used my "sideline" money in buying PX and some of PCOR (oil play).  I've got to replace this ASAP.  Possible sources would be from AGI (good thing prices went up for a gain) and DMC (slightly negative).

January 2011 Performance

I have increased my equity by 50% at the start of this year.  Though I am becoming more confident with myself as a trader with at least a few months of experience, the market isn't as good as it was 2 years ago (right after the subprime mess).

I will try to remain 20% (equivalent to my max hold to 1 stock) in cash on hand as my revolving fund.  One that could help me go in and out of a stock for better market timing.  Whenever I plan to shift my funds from one stock to another, this revolving fund would act as proxy and should be replenished as soon as I have finished buying and selling the 2 stocks.  This should add discipline to my trades.

For my first month of trading this year, it has been a tough one with recurring market declines.  Some even call it as the January effect.  Counting in the 25% increase due to added infusion of funds, I was able to get cash profits of only 0.56% of my total portfolio. 

January was a month for the 3rd liners, basically composed of speculative stocks.  At least I had a small bite with the "trash" play when I had a 1-day trade of ELI, and was rewarded with a 14% stock return.  However, I made a costly mistake with MPI, buying at its high.  I did some cut loss (not yet finished), which eventually narrowed down my month's profit margin.

Total equity dropped by 8%, mostly because of my hold on MPI and FDC.

Summary:
Cash gain:  0.56%
Portfolio gain:  -8%

Slowly but surely, I am trying to practice more with my TA with the use of different indicators aside from the common MACD and RSI:
DMI
STS
RVI
CCI
Parabolic SAR

I hope I could get better with this.

Here's a look on the latest chart on the PSEi.

Cliffhanging

Egypt is all over the news because of its own version of a People Power happening against its decades old President, Mubarak.  The Global financial market remains to be shaky as it awaits positive development over the situation.  The PSE has not been exempted from the uneasiness, as the market has dropped down by 88 points.

Surprisingly, my portfolio wasn't greatly affected as most of my holdings remained intact.  MPI, though currently at a negative, did not go down; in fact it showed strength up to the close.  As for my other "loser", FDC, it was bought up by ATR at the close (thus, just a temporary rise).

For today's trade, I was able to sell half of my MPI as it went up to 3.64, transferring risks on to EDC which went down to 5.77.  MPI has been showing strength these past few days, but I really need to start transferring my hold on to the more reliable stocks which I believe in.

For AGI, I should have sold earlier (last Friday) as my indicators already show short term weakness.  Will have to wait again when CCI reaches its top for a sell.  COL has released its latest study on AGI, and has increased its tp for this stock.  The increase in AGI's value is heavily attributed to its gaming business such as that of Resorts World, which has just opened last year.  Industry comparisons also favor AGI over its competitors (i.e. AC).

Watchlist:
One of my favorites: SCC

I should buy once it breaches towards the lower Bollinger bands.  Traded strongly on a weak market yesterday.

FDC Countermeasure

FDC broke my heart, but I still believe in the fundamentals of this stock.  The problem is that it has low float, thus can be easily abandoned by impatient short term traders.  As a consolation, at least I didn't put much yet on this stock and so there is still room to add for more, if I really choose this to be one of my core holdings. (Current core: AP and EDC).

Here is the 1 year chart where I may plan to buy more shares once an STS buy would be triggered.

Reasons why I still believe in this stock:
1.) Undervalued, with current P/E at 10x.
2.) Impending IPO for one of its earning subsidiaries: EastWest Banking.
3.) FDC plans for a 2PO but would not want to sell at current low prices.  This 2PO is needed in order to increase the company's float from less than 10% to about 33%.
4.) Intact earnings, with sugar having high prices this year.  (subsidiary: Pacific Sugar Holdings).

After Another Major Correction

And so FDC disappointed me badly, currently having a 24% loss (!!).  The big price drop was due to the ongoing market correction, and was pushed further by the retraction of FDC in stock offerings due to the low price (which ironically made it lower).  I'm still holding this for the long term, albeit recognizing it as a stuck for now.  I still believe it is a fundamentally good stock, however, with its low float, I'm not sure when will it start going up again.  I am actually tempted to buy more to average down however, I am still studying some other options (stocks), hopefully to regain short term losses.

Some notes:
DMC- Director Sid buys at around 32.6, so it should be safe at those levels.  Probably average down at that price in case it goes lower again.
AMC- Milk prices are projected to go up.
AGI- c/o MEG is currently looking good at this down market.  Seems like property stocks are slowly going back in play.

Watchlist:
PCOR- with oil prices looking to go up, this stock may be cheap at these levels.  Plus good volume on the past 2 days.  Buy at 14.37.

FDC

My first time to look at FDC's charts, I have noted that a bullish pennant has been formed.  On the next trading day, it was traded with gusto gaining impressive volume signifying a valid positive momentum.

FDC (Filinvest Development Corporation) is the parent company of FLI (Filinvest Land) and EastWest Bank.  The company is also involved in the production of sugar (Pacific Sugar Holdings Corporation).  East West Bank plans to do an IPO, probably  this year, so this should be a good thing for FDC.

Looking at the Price-Earnings ratio, FDC has increased its EPS from .23 in 2009 to .52 in 2010.  My personal TP for now would be 8.56, assuming stable growth and earnings.

I am including this stock to be among my watchlist for this year, which already include AP, DGTL and EDC.

Personal Recommendation:  BUY

14%

Pulled a fast one on ELI.  Bought yesterday near the close at .64, then sold at .74 for a 14% gain.  I think this is my biggest for a 1 day trade so far.  The stock opened immediately at 10% gain, which is very impressive.  However, it hit a wall at .75, with the heavy selling of Tower Securities.

I guess I'm just too scared to play speculative stocks for now.  I have no assurance that I could monitor it anytime now that grad school has started once again.

I think ELI would further go up especially when Tower has finished selling.  Some traders say tp is on the 1- levels.  For now, with my current losses on the blues after the January correction, I'm locking in on profits for an added boost, and will eventually go back to my favorites. 

For the next trading day, I have posted some buy orders for AP at around 27.15.  Foreign brokers seem to be accumulating at current levels already.

Book of ELI

Tried to trade a speculative stock today in the name of ELI.  After hearing this tip from a fellow online trader, I checked the charts immediately.  I may be already too late for the day as the price has just formed a very long candle stick with large volume.  But since I it's just the first day, hopefully I am still on time to ride the wave and so I got myself some shares at .64.  The day ended with ELI giving me a break-even price at .65.  Hopefully tomorrow, it would start flying.

As for the rest of my portfolio, it improved just a bit, no thanks to another declining spree for AP.  I still have faith on this stock, but it seems it is still finding its bottom.  I do hope it stop now, and at least give me signs that it will push back up eventually.

Bumpy Ride Ahead

 From now on, I shall classify my holdings accdg to my investment plans.
Yesterday and today was bloody as hell.  I wasn't able to monitor today as I went out to play tennis instead hehe.  PSEi now in almost flat 4000.

Core (Long term)
AP - based on the latest candlestick, it might go down more.  RSI shows nearing oversold conditions.  Trade for profit at 28.76?
EDC - Range trading for now. 
AMC - I rarely monitor this hehe.

Momentum
AGI - If it shows strength tomorrow, it should be a good sign as it would bounce from its lowest RSI, and will confirm reversal, based on the hammer candlestick.
DMC - Break down.  May still continue descent until it gets oversold.
MPI - Must remain above its support at 3.86

watchlist
SCC -  buy at 180.  Bounce back at 178.
LND - buy at 1.46.  Stop at 1.26

First Blood!

The last 2 trading days was a bloodbath for most traders, especially today.  My paper profit from DMC and AGI had just been wiped out! I am currently holding Blues, which should have been traded on the swing. 

For the past few weeks, gains only come from the 3rd liners.  Because of this, I was tempted to enter in this so-called "basura" (garbage) stocks, with CYBR as target after its ceiling play last weekend.  Well, for now, the stock might be in consolidation mode, especially since the market was generally down today. 

I haven't had any gains yet since the start of this year.  I really should start thinking about swing trading the Blues, before any major trend comes up.  Or, just tell myself to be patient hehe. 

AP and DMC had a big drop today.  I've checked AP's previous charts and saw the 30 initial support.  Added shares @29.8, however it closed down further to 29.  I hope it doesn't continue to go towards a down trend.

Stocks to watch:
SCC - formed a bullish pennant.  Just wait for a rise in volume.

Before Classes Starts

I'm trying to take advantage of what little vacation I have left, in order to be able to monitor the market.  However, the PSE seems to be on a lull.  Except for speculative stocks providing profits, the usual blues are still in consolidation mode.

A short look on my current holdings:

AGI - Waiting for a breakout at 13.16.  Failed.  Sell on Strength.
AP -  Consolidating.  Buy the Dips
DMC - Hold. Maintaining Up Trend
MPI - low volume, but still continuing up trend.
EDC - Resistance at 6.15.  HOLD for now.  Generated 2 Buy signals (MACD and DMI)

First Trade For The Year! (2011)

Entered again into AP after seeing a strong open.

AP - Jan 3

I'm thinking that I might have entered too early, but perhaps to justify this trade I'll just classify it as a position entry.  Since AP is one of my top 3 picks for 2011, I am hoping I have entered just right in time as it regains its positive momentum.  So far, volume is not yet convincing, and the prices haven't reached breakout yet.  Green signals tomorrow would confirm the much coveted BUY signal for this stock. Bought @31.75, but closed 1.24% lower.

Next, I am loving the graph of MPI as it shows a convincing breakout.

MPI on Jan 3

It's a bit bad I was a trading day late to enter this stock.  On a technical basis, MPI has triggered a buy signal at the end of last year but I skipped notice to this since I was more into entering my list of fundamentally strong stocks.  It is only when I saw that current day prices was going beyond the upper Bollinger band, that I got convinced to buy. 

Come to think of it, during the last few days of last year's trade, I was dismayed for not being able to enter MER at my desired price points (now at 240 level).  Good news!  This is my chance to ride the wave as MPI has significant hold on MER.  Not to mention, toll fees have increased effectively at the start of this year. Bought near the close @4.14 (from a high of 4.17), ending just a notch higher @4.15.

2 stocks for a day.  One based on Fundamental Analysis, the other on Technical Analysis.  Hoping to start the year right with the right picks! :)