June - July 2012

This may serve as my June and July update since I have been busy at work lately and I don't think I can religiously update this blog regularly (at least bi-monthly).  It is unfortunate that I got busy the same time when the market has corrected, and that I can no longer keep up with the daily monitoring that I got used to for the last 2 years.

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)

YTD:  +4.28%

Benchmark: +18.5%

The start of the year was great since I was able to outperform the index; however, during the correction last May, I realized that my stops were too low (100 MA) as my paper profits went back to almost zero.    PSE market is still quite shaky these days as I am trying to re-enter.  My portfolio above shows a lot of entries because most of them are test buys.  Only FGEN and CMT seem to show a continuity on its uptrend.

Currently, my portfolio is clearly underperforming; I hope, I can manage to steer it back to beat the benchmark.  Still, the good thing is it is still on the positive.

AJC Fund (short term fund)

YTD (3 months):  -2.59%

Benchmark: -0.70%

AJC Fund is still on the negative although the gap from the benchmark is closer (< 3%) now  than what was last reported (~ 5%).  Both portfolios suffered from the inclusion of Lepanto which backfired when the Mining EO signed by PNoy still gave uncertainty to the mining sector.  

PSE Index Weekly

Looking at the PSEi weekly chart, seems like it is on a positive channel uptrend.  However, note the divergence as revealed in the MACD.  This may indicate that the uptrend is not sustainable; we can expect further consolidation in the future.  Seems like our market will trade at a range for the meantime. Next month would be the so-called ghost month, so it is possible that we may experience further selldowns.  Might be best to stay at the sidelines for now.

February 2012

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)


YTD: 12.64%
Benchmark (PSEi): 11.4%

The following is the composition of my trading portfolio: (as of Feb 29, 2012)

February saw the rise of FDC and I hope that it will still continue.  With its book value still far below market, plus the planned IPO of EWB, I am still holding this stock perhaps before or after a planned secondary IPO or private placement will be announced.

I have repositioned my portfolio a little bit away from mining stocks (PX, LC/B) and slowly diversified to other sectors.  My exposure to mining is now limited to MARC which seems to be a good prospect as based on its report on earnings and operations.

Oil has now been an issue due to the news on Iran. I choose PXP to be a good mid-long term stock.  I just hope that they would no longer require equity financing as it would shake down the stock's market prices.  A lot of companies had been undergoing private placements lately, and the market has not responded too well on such kind of news, at least for the short-term.

Unexpectedly, TA announced another SRO this year which dragged down the prices; thus, hitting my sell indicators.  Seems like TA is maintaining a debt-capital ratio of around 40:60 (max).  I still like this stock since it is both Power and Oil play.  Although I expect market prices to go down as effect to the news on SRO.

February was a good month as it extended gains.  My portfolio reached a max YTD of 15% until profit-taking happened during the latter days of the month.  I think we'll be under a consolidaton phase for 1-2 more weeks before we get to see any action.  Good thing I'm 20% cash right now, I'll practice range trading and will also start accumulating for the strong index stocks.

AJC Fund (short term)

YTD: -2.97%
Benchmark: -1.4%

Much of the loss was attributed to the sudden SRO news on TA which caused it to drop to as low as 1.12 from 1.31.  Fundamentals of TA is still good and intact, however, my strategy for the AJC Fund would be more on short-mid term unlike the ScIoN fund which is mid-long term.

The run-up of stocks was for those who already had positions at the end of January.  Positioning in February was a bit tricky, a lot of setups became bull/bear traps.  For now, I have positioned the fund into 30% MARC, short term on SLI (15%) and the rest on cash.  There are still oddlots on EDC and BEL which I can't dispose, so I'll just leave them there for now.

The Benchmark portfolio is based on the original portfolio when it was handed over to me.  Assuming if I did not change anything, YTD is at -1.4%.

Picks of the Week [May 30-June 3]

My choices for last week were BEL and AT.  However, due to the general slump of last week's index these 2 stocks also followed in the decrease of stock prices.  BEL for last week was more of a "cautious buy" since there have been no breakouts yet.  During the first 2 days of trading, prices went back to support level; thus, no buy orders were made.

As for AT, I made a mistake interpreting the chart.  My labeling of a "bullish flag" was incorrect, and should have just been a range trade.  As a result, I entered at a slight high of 17.70, instead of just waiting at a lower price near 17.21.  Good thing I entered with just a small position.

For this week, I only have 1 pick and it is PX.  With the upcoming stock dividend in terms of new PPC (Philex Petroleum) shares and a breakout for a new high w/ volume, this is definitely a top pick for me.  I entered with a small position because I felt I was a bit late, even buying at the close.  I guess that's the price to pay with holding a lot of stocks (more or less 10), gives difficulty in terms of monitoring.  Since this is a strong buy for me, I am still waiting for dips near 20.  I just saw the 10 year chart and wow, in hindsight, PX has been a very good investment through the years!

For this week, I tried using the weekly charts instead of just the dailies.  This would be a great exercise for me to not only be dependent on daily charts.  Besides, if I am going to speculate for 1 week, it makes more sense to use the weeklies.

And since I had some sort of trouble monitoring all my current holdings plus waiting for "promising" stocks, this time around, I'll just concentrate first with what I already have.

SELL
EDC- sell on strength.  slower upward channel after breaking UT. RST at 7.17 but might fall down to 5.67. [sell at 6.52 or 6.38]
SCC - correction- downward channel .  sell at RST at 222.26 or at least 214.11. Possible to go down further

HOLD
AP- downward channel to sideways since Nov 10. Range trade SPT at 25.86, lighten at 32.7.  Major SPT at 23.45 (130SMA). 
FDC- major RST at 7.7 (old high). UT still intact and in line with 130SMA.  Start buying if it reaches at least 4.8.  Weak DMI (+)
URC- potential cup and handle. major RST at 46.9 (high). SPT at 65 SMA at 37.79.

Strong BUY
LC- strong DMI (+).  cautiously buy at .78 (dips).  SPT at .74; RST at .93
PX - strong DMI (+).  breakout from new high.  buy near 20 SPT.

Cautious BUY
AT - sideways to up.  R1: 17.68; R2: 20.17.  major SPT at 14.86.  wait for breakout to buy (hammer and buy MACD signal). 
LPZ - UT intact.  retesting major RST 6.6. DMI gaining strength (+).  trend line SPT at 5.61. start to buy at 6.2 to 5.99
TA- must hold 1.05 SPT.  sideways from 1.05 to 1.38.  wait further for a bounce before buying near 1.05


On Monday, TA Stock Rights offer at Php1 will be given. 

Picks of the Week [May 23-27]

A review on last week's picks:
1.) CEB - maintained its support at 93.77 and is still slowly going up.  I did not pursue getting in since I am not yet comfortable with the fundamentals of the airline industry.  Yet, out of the picks last week, this is the only stock that remained true to its promise (technically).
2.) JGS- Despite breaking out from its previous high, this stock formed a bull trap instead of moving up.  A bit strange since CEB and URC have been performing well recently.  There might be news that I am not aware of.  I saw weakness since the start of the week; thus, did not pursue in getting in.  Now it's back at gaining momentum in order to break the same resistance.
3.) ELI - It's really hard to apply technical analysis on a speculative stock, especially with weak/erratic volume.  Breakout was a failure as prices went back into range trading.

Maybe next time, I should study the weekly charts instead of the dailies for my Picks of the Week.


Picks of the Week [May 23-27] - still using daily charts though

1.) BEL - Crossed the MACD zero line having a minor breakout and with considerable volume.  Support at 5.6 and Resistance at 6.1.  Possible range trading for now.  A breakout from resistance would be a strong Buy.  BEL has been consolidating since the start of the year after soaring along with LR for its casino play.  There had been a delay with their plans which resulted to this sideway trend.  Seems like the jockeys are in play.

2.) AT - The trading halt of the trio PX/LC/MA last May 11 gave AT some chance to absorb the greed of those who wanted to enter Mining.  As trading resumed for the 3 stocks, AT remained to gain momentum for at least 3 days before having some slight correction.   AT has broken out from its downward trend and has formed a bullish flag with a long pole.  Seems like AT is now catching up with its peers after being a laggard for months.