June - July 2012

This may serve as my June and July update since I have been busy at work lately and I don't think I can religiously update this blog regularly (at least bi-monthly).  It is unfortunate that I got busy the same time when the market has corrected, and that I can no longer keep up with the daily monitoring that I got used to for the last 2 years.

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)

YTD:  +4.28%

Benchmark: +18.5%

The start of the year was great since I was able to outperform the index; however, during the correction last May, I realized that my stops were too low (100 MA) as my paper profits went back to almost zero.    PSE market is still quite shaky these days as I am trying to re-enter.  My portfolio above shows a lot of entries because most of them are test buys.  Only FGEN and CMT seem to show a continuity on its uptrend.

Currently, my portfolio is clearly underperforming; I hope, I can manage to steer it back to beat the benchmark.  Still, the good thing is it is still on the positive.

AJC Fund (short term fund)

YTD (3 months):  -2.59%

Benchmark: -0.70%

AJC Fund is still on the negative although the gap from the benchmark is closer (< 3%) now  than what was last reported (~ 5%).  Both portfolios suffered from the inclusion of Lepanto which backfired when the Mining EO signed by PNoy still gave uncertainty to the mining sector.  

PSE Index Weekly

Looking at the PSEi weekly chart, seems like it is on a positive channel uptrend.  However, note the divergence as revealed in the MACD.  This may indicate that the uptrend is not sustainable; we can expect further consolidation in the future.  Seems like our market will trade at a range for the meantime. Next month would be the so-called ghost month, so it is possible that we may experience further selldowns.  Might be best to stay at the sidelines for now.

2011 Year End Report

From last year's 12.37% gain (5 months), my stock portfolio only managed to sneak in a disappointing 2.06% YTD gain.  It was during September when Euro debt fears affected the global markets that my 11.49% YTD went down to a -2.41% loss in just one month.  Prices bounced back a little by December.

At the start of the year, I have positioned myself into AP, EDC, TA and FDC as my long term stock holdings.  Unfortunately, the power industry rested from its bullish run after the 2009 financial crash.  I did gain from EDC until I sold all on May when it broke its moving average supports.  My "Power play" was a bit early. As for FDC, it delayed its follow-on offering due to unfavorable market conditions.  The Euro Debt scare is still very much alive, and it pulls down overall market sentiment despite good Philippine fundamentals.

My best earners were (more than 10%): URC (21%), PX (19%), FOOD (19%), LC (52%).
Dividend givers (cash more than 1k): URC (~4.6%), EDC (~2.8%), AP (~4.66%), PXP (in the form of shares from PX)
Worst losses (more than 10%): MPI (-13%), PCOR (-12%), LPZ (-11.6%), LC (-18.7%), PX (-13.7%), WPI (-41.8%), ELI (-13.4%), MEG (-11.8%)

I have been using more Technical Analysis lately, and the good thing is, I have managed to improve in the money management department.  Cutting losses is hard to do, but it's best to cut losses early than to realize it when it's already too late.  By the middle of the year, I have started using Ichimoku Kinkou Hyou, aka kumo (cloud) trading.  It's a visual guide for me to determine supports and resistances, and to see trend reversals and breakouts.

I used to try and limit my holdings to just a few stocks, but given a lot of chart breakouts lately, I diversified into a lot.  Especially during the time the PSE was moving sideways.  I may reconsider again now that we are on quasi-bullish mode (a little more to confirm).  I also try to practice turtle trading, for which I buy a position and take some profits when targets have been reached, leaving behind some shares for further run-up.

This is the whole pie of my trading portfolio (23% of my whole Investment Port):

Seems like the theme for my trading portfolio would be power, oil and mining.  I'm still hoping FDC would start going up this first quarter of the year.




My Investment Portfolio is divided into:

Equities (66%)
-BDO Equity Fund (33%) :  -2.13%   * was caught in a bull trap when I entered last May.
-COL trading account (23%): +2.06%  * August dip led my once YTD 12% down to a negative in just a month.  My long term stocks actually kicked in a little bit late, now at the start of 2012.
-ATR Mutual Fund (10%):   -1.6% *My very first investment 4 years ago which is actually on a gain of 41%


Bonds (18%) 
-BDO Bond Fund (18%): +5.17% *Instead of investing on balanced funds, you can allocate your own through Bond and Equity Funds.

Savings Account (16%) *Still on the process of transferring funds from here to other investments.  Should only leave money here for liquidity purposes.

Overall, my portfolio is still intact.  I may not have earned a lot this year, but I can say that I have improved greatly.  What is important is that I now have my own trading system for Technical Analysis.  I will still stick with fundamentals especially for long term "conviction" holds.

October 2011 Performance

Missed around 3 months of updating since I've been busy and the market was in a slump.  Though it was August that was declared as a "ghost month" in accordance to Chinese beliefs, market decline started a month later.

I have 2 portfolios on my Bloomberg Portfolio tracker.  The first one is on managed funds: a combination of a mutual fund via ATR Kim Eng and BDO Equity and Bond Funds.  I'm quite satisfied with my BDO Funds, it's ATR Kim Eng (aka The Mutual Fund Company) which disappoints.  I plan to redeem all my shares as soon as possible and probably shift it to other accounts.

Portfolio 1 breakdown
BDO Equity Fund:  55%
ATR Kim Eng Fund: 16%
BDO Bond Fund: 29%

I'm really happy with BDO Bond Fund as it is giving me an annualized gain of 10%.  I've got positive returns for all 4 months that I have been invested.  Although, September just gave me a close to 0 positive return, but it was generally due to a market slump.

Portfolio 2:  Self-managed Fund
July was the start of a bull run, however, news on Greece and Europe in general scared all the bulls leading to a huge drop in September.  A 2 month rally which gave me 6% in portfolio gains got erased in just a month.  At the end of October, I am still left with less than a percent difference (loss) compared to my July portfolio.

From a YTD gain of 11.5% at the end of August, my portfolio got wiped out and ended up to -2% in just a month!  I had to liquidate my long-term positions on LC and PX.  My biggest regrettable loss came from a speculative for which I did not cut loss early (WPI).  At least it was just a small position, however I lost around 50% on that.

YTD Performance: (paper)
ScIoN Fund: 3.94%
PSEi: 1.58%
ATR Kim Eng: -1.12%

In terms of cash, I have liquidated a total gain of around 5.53% already.  Reinvested profits are currently at a loss, as shown by a lower paper YTD compared to cash.  I now plan to trade only a fixed amount, and the rest would be placed into high dividend yielding stocks or to be transferred to safer investments.

I am also currently 29% cash, since the PSE is still on a sideways trend.  There seems to be a lot of good buys recently as stocks slowly get up from oversold region.  I'd say, the 4th quarter seems to be a good time to go back to the market.  I don't expect a bull run yet, but at least there are lots of upsides now as compared to the downsides.