tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65930617618257060172024-03-13T08:48:46.912+08:00Trade OnScIoN's Thoughts on Technology and FinanceScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.comBlogger105125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-6310968087318216892015-07-31T22:21:00.000+08:002015-07-31T22:33:21.561+08:00PCOR the Underdog<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJPUitx1s5YlEbzGlkLb-8kG4eyFWklc5xidO4eiDCKOZGtXMOtWMJg3h7S3SwcJnGSRMyN2rtWft-lmolfRvABS_cyMZckDG2QgY8Kx2sdO51zNlZKdsHCrmLc2LVXPjXfC_VP6CZIWg/s1600/PCOR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJPUitx1s5YlEbzGlkLb-8kG4eyFWklc5xidO4eiDCKOZGtXMOtWMJg3h7S3SwcJnGSRMyN2rtWft-lmolfRvABS_cyMZckDG2QgY8Kx2sdO51zNlZKdsHCrmLc2LVXPjXfC_VP6CZIWg/s640/PCOR.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Nice to see Petron (PCOR.PS) which has been a battered stock since 2013 rise by +36% in just 1 day. At 3:15pm, the stock was trading at 7.33 then at pre-closing period at 3:20pm (where At-The-Close orders are being matched), the stocks were being bought automatically at Php10 by foreign broker DBP-Daiwa Whether it be a blunder of one trader (poor soul) or part of some window dressing activities, this is definitely great news for PCOR stuckholders (sic).</div>
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If indeed it was an operational mistake, it's not the first time that it happened within the PSE. I remember the <a href="http://scion-tradeon.blogspot.com/2010/08/market-correction-rolando-mendoza-and.html" target="_blank">ALI Super Sale</a> back in August 2010 when the stock's price got sold down by 15% also at-the-close. Maybe the trader intended to post a GTC Sell (Good-till-canceled) but instead entered a GTC buy. </div>
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For holders, one cannot ignore the fact that we now have a foreign broker carrying Php41M worth of shares at Php10 a piece. This improves the chances of getting out of the price depression overhang set by 2 consecutive private placements in 2014 and the current global oil price rut. Of course, the next interesting part would be on how the prices will behave on next trading day (Monday, beginning of August).</div>
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Chart-wise, this looks like a mean reversion towards the 200-day Moving Average (~1yr horizon). It needs a bit more push to break the longstanding downtrend. Hopefully once positive quarterly earnings (despite low oil price) gets out, that could be a catalyst for a positive reversal.</div>
ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-35192319548325354802015-04-06T11:33:00.000+08:002015-04-06T12:49:38.354+08:00Spotlight: Cebu Air, Inc (CEB)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://www.smsupermalls.com/sites/default/files/styles/movie_full_image/public/store-images/cebu-pacific.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.smsupermalls.com/sites/default/files/styles/movie_full_image/public/store-images/cebu-pacific.jpg" height="204" width="320" /></a></div>
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Business Overview</h2>
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Cebu Air, Inc. (the Parent Company) is an airline that operates under the trade name “Cebu Pacific Air” and is the leading low-cost carrier in the Philippines. It pioneered the “low fare, great value” strategy in the local aviation industry by providing scheduled air travel services targeted to passengers who are willing to forego extras for fares that are typically lower than those offered by traditional full-service airlines while offering reliable services and providing passengers with a fun travel experience.</div>
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In 2005, the Parent Company adopted the low-cost carrier (LCC) business model. The core element of the LCC strategy is to offer affordable air services to passengers. This is achieved by having: high-load, high-frequency flights; high aircraft utilization; a young and simple fleet composition; and low distribution costs.</div>
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For the past 3 years, 78% of the Company's revenues come from Passenger Services, 16% from Ancillary Services, and 6% from Cargo. According to Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) data, Cebu Pacific is the leading domestic airline in the Philippines by passengers carried, with a market share of 60.8% for the year ended December 31, 2014.</div>
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Major Subsidiaries</h3>
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Here is a complete chart of JG Summit Holdings, showing its 67.23% ownership of Cebu Air, Inc. Cebu Air recently acquired Tiger Air last March 2014 at a net cost of Php265.1M<b>. </b>(Goodwill offset by operational losses).</div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(Click the view larger image)</td></tr>
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Key People </h3>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/01Nn7qQ5tw6tD/0x600.jpg?fit=scale&background=000000" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/01Nn7qQ5tw6tD/0x600.jpg?fit=scale&background=000000" height="200" width="132" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(c) Forbes.com</td></tr>
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1.) John L. Gokongwei Jr. - Founder and Chairman Emeritus of JG Summit Holdings. Other notable companies he holds: Robinson Retail Holdings (Chairman & CEO), Oriental Petroleum & Minerals Corporation (OPM) (Director), MERALCO (director). MBA Graduate from De La Salle University and attended the Advanced Management Program at Harvard Business School.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.romulo.com/2011-website/images/opuploadedfiles/2010Sep27013-RICARDO%20ROMULO.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.romulo.com/2011-website/images/opuploadedfiles/2010Sep27013-RICARDO%20ROMULO.jpg" height="200" width="160" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(c) Romulo.com</td></tr>
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2.) Ricardo J. Romulo- Chairman of the Board since 1995. Director of JGS, PhilamLife, Zuellig Pharma among others. Former Makati Business Club for 19 years (1987-2006). He is the brother of John Gokongwei, Jr. He received his Bachelor of Laws degree from Georgetown University and Doctor of Laws degree from Harvard Law School.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.uic.com.sg/system/images/bod-james.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.uic.com.sg/system/images/bod-james.jpg" height="200" width="198" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(c) uic.com.sg</td></tr>
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3.) James L. Go - Director since 2002. Chairman/CEO of URC Philippines and OPM. Chairman of Robinson Land. Director of PLDT since 2011. Director of MERALCO since 2013. Received his Bachelor of Science Degree and Master of Science Degree in Chemical Engineering from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/AK-AL779_MIAgok_DV_20110820234824.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/AK-AL779_MIAgok_DV_20110820234824.jpg" height="200" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(c) wsj.com</td></tr>
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4.) Lance Gokongwei- President and Chief Executive Officer of the Group since 1997. Other positions that he hold: President & CEO (Universal Robina Corporation) , President & COO (JG Summit Holdings, Vice-Chairman & CEO (Robinson Land), Chairman (Robinson's bank), Director (OPM and MERALCO). He is the only son of John Gokongwei. Received his Bachelor of Science degree in Finance and a Bachelor of Science degree in Applied Science from the University of Pennsylvania.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.romulo.com/2011-website/images/opuploadedfiles/2010Sep27069-JOSE%20BUENAVENTURA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.romulo.com/2011-website/images/opuploadedfiles/2010Sep27069-JOSE%20BUENAVENTURA.jpg" height="200" width="160" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(c) Romulo.com</td></tr>
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5.) Jose F. Buenaventura - Director since 1995. Senior Partner w/ Ricardo Romulo at their law firm. Board Member of BDO Unibank, Melco Crown, Philippine First Insurance, Philplans First, among others. Law graduate from Ateneo, Masters of Law from Georgetown University.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://business.inquirer.net/files/2015/01/rob4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://business.inquirer.net/files/2015/01/rob4.jpg" height="200" width="129" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(c) Inquirer.net</td></tr>
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6.) Robina Y. Gokongwei-Pe - Director since 2007. President & COO of Robinsons Retail Holdings. Director of : Robinsons Land, JG Summit, Robinsons Bank. She attended the University of the Philippines-Diliman from 1978 to 1981 and obtained a Bachelor of Arts degree (Journalism) from New York University in 1984.</div>
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Dividend Policy</h3>
Regular cash dividends of Php1 per share were given for the past 3 years. In 2013, Special dividend of Php1/share was given.<br />
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Quick Numbers</h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (AR 2014): ~Php21.54B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~606M</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 35.54</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 57%<br />Beta: </span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">0.88</span><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Cost of Capital: 6.8% (estimated debt cost 3.2% but 6% max is used)</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Net Income: </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2014 : Php 1.06B</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2013: Php 256M<br />2012: Php 3.52B</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: Php 1.31B</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">A conservative assumption of long-term growth (3% yearly), would put the fair value of the company (</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">based on earnings - DCF analysis)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> by at least:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php 251.53</i></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Cebu Air's Net Income has been volatile mainly due to 2 risk elements: Commodity price (oil) and Foreign exchange losses affecting loan interest costs. For 2014, Cebu Air incurred around Php2.3B worth of losses due to hedging (oil price drops) while in 2013, </span><span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22.8666667938232px;"> foreign exchange losses amounted to</span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"> Php2B. Despite the fluctuations, if the company would be able to maintain around Php1B in Net income year on year, then the above Fair Value could be achieved, even more.<br /><br />Notably, 2014's operational income is almost 2x the previous year at around Php4B. This goes to show that the company is very profitable, but just needs proper risk management to improve net profit margins.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCcFmOCd0AfFjR60uw3bQ5ztbfLgRaqUcQBRktBzeZMd6xiEQN_fhxPy7Tfe6Sn5TBCWhOrQsdgNy_17AD8xkdwdOing4ypcwdNsM9LVuxDVJ4OWKFhdDyk_Xk7VEohLYHYr_2biVVDU4/s1600/CEB+April+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCcFmOCd0AfFjR60uw3bQ5ztbfLgRaqUcQBRktBzeZMd6xiEQN_fhxPy7Tfe6Sn5TBCWhOrQsdgNy_17AD8xkdwdOing4ypcwdNsM9LVuxDVJ4OWKFhdDyk_Xk7VEohLYHYr_2biVVDU4/s1600/CEB+April+1.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></div>
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Hopefully, it's a bullish pennant that we see onwards to breaking resistance at 98, or the price will retreat back to 80 levels (green upwards trendline which coincides with 200 EMA). Seems to me a range trade for some time until that resistance gets broken.</div>
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Analysis</h2>
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No doubt, Cebu Air Inc is the leader in Philippine air transportation and we can see through its revenues that business is good. As mentioned earlier, the company should improve on its risk management strategies. <br />
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For a capital intensive company, it's good to see that debt costs are low for as much as 4-6%. Interest rate risk should also be monitored with the expense already reaching Php1B this year. For the year 2014, huge losses were incurred due to commodity price hedging (oil). It has been said that for every $10 change in oil price, its effect on the pre-tax income of CEB would translate to around Php1.7B. Not sure if the recent Php2B loss on hedging is to be considered as mitigated loss. Considering the drastic fall of oil prices last year, it could have been worse.<br />
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Would it be possible to sustain a Php1B Net income every year? It's actually just a small portion of the company's Gross Revenue at Php52B. So where did all the money go? Operating Profit Margin may be small as almost 90% goes to operational expenses. Php4B is alloted to depreciation costs, way bigger than the annual net income, but it is still ready cash for the company. The average age of CEB planes is just around 4 years, compared to a depreciable life of 15. This means a lot of the expenses are mainly capital outlays; that for the succeeding years, expenses are expected to drop. Operating Cash Flows is at Php7B on 2014, almost twice that of 2013. <br />
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Given that Cebu Air will continue to dominate Philippine air transportation even considering saturated growth maintained at current levels, the company remains to be profitable. Challenge left to Cebu Air executives is on how they can manage risk (they have lost a lot from financial derivatives -- should they continue?) and cost management to increase margins.<br />
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Personally, I have just started my position on CEB and will likely start to accumulate. I only first started monitoring this stock after COL released its 2015 guidance, showing a major upside for CEB. I wanted to take a look myself, and as it turns out, I even gave it a higher FV despite trying my best to use conservative assumptions. Another blog earlier posted a fundamental analysis on this stock which you should check out: <a href="http://www.alphainvestments.ph/is-cebu-air-truly-worth-php150/" target="_blank"> http://www.alphainvestments.ph/is-cebu-air-truly-worth-php150/</a> . So far, it's unanimous, CEB is undervalued.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">References: Financial Statement of CEB (AR 2014)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"> Images found via Google search</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">This post does not give a comprehensive analysis on the company/industry. This is only a summary or a company snapshot as of the date it was posted. Spotlight stocks featured in this blog are being chosen arbitrarily, and are only intended for the blog owner's personal consumption; not as a form of solicitation to buy or to sell. Comments from readers who would like to point out errors, to share ideas, etc are most welcome. </span>ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-8186500522530004652015-02-15T14:30:00.000+08:002015-02-15T14:44:13.787+08:00List of Philippine Preferred Shares<div style="text-align: justify;">
I have experienced <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/cfa-level-1/fixed-income-investments/call-prepayment-risk.asp" target="_blank">call/prepayment risk</a> firsthand as San Miguel Purefoods decided to redeem their Preferred shares (ticker: PFP) 4 years after its issue date last March 2011. The indicative dividend rate for PFP was 8% (@1000/sh) but since I bought mine at a premium (1009/sh incl. fees), this brings down my dividend yield to 7.14% (net). As the shares are to be redeemed less than 1 year since I started investing, I only get 3 out of 4 dividend payouts which gives me an actual yield of 4.5% (gross). Not bad, but could have been better.</div>
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Due to the early redemption, I need to find another instrument to shift these funds. I don't see any updated comprehensive list for Philippine Preferred shares; thus, created one on my own.</div>
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Since it is unlikely that you would be able to buy Preferred shares at Offer Price (unless you got it at IPO), it is important to check on the Yield to Maturity (YTM) with respect to the stock's price. There are lots of YTM calculators online which you can use to compute for the bond yield. Examples: <a href="http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/bond_yield_calculator.htm" target="_blank">Monkey Chimp</a> and <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/calculator/aoytm.aspx" target="_blank">Investopedia</a></div>
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The list below only includes Preferred shares that has a history of giving out dividends consistently (behaves like a fixed income asset). Important things to note are the earliest redemption dates and examples of current yield with the default holding period of 5 years unless stated. Prices are as of 2/13/2015.</div>
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If there are other Dividend-giving preferred stocks that I have missed, please let me know on through the comments section and I'd gladly add them here.</div>
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<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Issuer</th><th>Ticker</th><th>Listing Date</th><th>Earliest Redemption Date</th><th>Offer Price</th><th>Div Yield</th><th>Yield to Maturity</th></tr>
<tr><td>Ayala Corporation</td><td>ACPA</td><td>11/25/08</td><td>redeemed</td><td></td><td>8.8800%</td><td>redeemed</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ayala Corporation</td><td>ACPB1</td><td>11/15/13</td><td>??</td><td>500</td><td>5.2500%</td><td>@502: 5.103% for 3 yrs; 5.157% for 5</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ayala Corporation</td><td>ACPB2</td><td>11/5/14</td><td>11/5/19</td><td>500</td><td>5.5750%</td><td>@505: 5.342% for 5</td></tr>
<tr><td>First Gen</td><td>FGENG</td><td>5/18/12</td><td>5/18/22</td><td>100</td><td>7.8080%</td><td>@106: 5.58% for 3 yrs; 6.37% for 5</td></tr>
<tr><td>First Gen</td><td>FGENF</td><td>7/25/11</td><td>7/25/18</td><td>100</td><td>8.0000%</td><td>@107.7: 5.16% for 3 yrs; 6.16% for 5</td></tr>
<tr><td>Leisure and Resorts World</td><td>LRP</td><td>11/3/14</td><td>any time?</td><td>1</td><td>8.5000%</td><td>@1.03: 5.34% if 1 year; 6.84% for 2 yrs</td></tr>
<tr><td>Petron</td><td>PPREF</td><td>3/5/10</td><td></td><td></td><td>9.5281%</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>Petron</td><td>PRF2A</td><td>9/3/14</td><td>9/1/19</td><td>1000</td><td>6.3000%</td><td>@1010: 6.06%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Petron</td><td>PRF2B</td><td>9/3/14</td><td>9/1/21</td><td>1000</td><td>6.8583%</td><td>@1020: 6.38%</td></tr>
<tr><td>San Miguel Corp</td><td>SMCP1</td><td>12/8/10</td><td>to be redeemed</td><td></td><td>8.0000%</td><td>to be redeemed</td></tr>
<tr><td>San Miguel Corp</td><td>SMC2A</td><td>9/28/12</td><td>9/28/15</td><td>75</td><td>7.5000%</td><td>@76.2: 5.807% in 1 yr</td></tr>
<tr><td>San Miguel Corp</td><td>SMC2B</td><td>9/28/12</td><td>9/28/17</td><td>75</td><td>7.6250%</td><td>@78.5: 5.883% for 3 yrs; 6.502% for 5</td></tr>
<tr><td>San Miguel Corp</td><td>SMC2C</td><td>9/28/12</td><td>9/28/19</td><td>75</td><td>8.0000%</td><td>@81.5: 4.828% for 3 yrs; 5.946% for 5</td></tr>
<tr><td>San Miguel Purefoods</td><td>PFP</td><td>3/11/11</td><td>3/11/14</td><td>1000</td><td>8.0000%</td><td>to be redeemed</td></tr>
<tr><td>San Miguel Purefoods</td><td>PFP2</td><td>3/12/15</td><td>3/12/18</td><td>1000</td><td>5.6569%</td><td>to be issued</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<h4>
Rant: </h4>
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My Preferred stock investment was placed through BPITrade. It's hard to keep track of dividend payouts since BPI Trade does not notify me through email for any incoming dividends or at least give out an e-receipt. History of transactions is also limited. Based on my experience, COL Financial and Philstocks (Accord Capital) provide these things; thus, are more reliable when it comes to keeping your preferred share investments. Not to mention, BPI Trade's customer service/support is the worst.<br /><br />
<h4>
Risk:</h4>
Liquidity - Preferred shares may not be as liquid as common shares which is significant if you would want to sell. It may take time before a buyer would match your desired offer price.<br />Default - A bit better than Common since Preferred shareholders has a higher priority of payment. Still, it is best to invest on companies that are less likely to go bankrupt.</div>
ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-9464999046364527942014-10-06T14:26:00.000+08:002014-10-06T14:26:28.353+08:00CPG's 800 Million Peso Share BuyBack Program<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I have previously covered Century Properties Group (CPG) in this blog but that was already around 2 years ago; thus, this badly needs an update. Looking at the historical chart, one can see 2.42 as a major resistance and that the stock price have long been in a bearish trend for more than 1 year.</div>
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On hindsight, it would be easy for me to say my fair value (FV) price of 2.43 (<a href="http://scion-tradeon.blogspot.com/2012/11/spotlight-century-properties-group-inc.html" target="_blank">Spotlight: CPG</a>) was spot on; but I'd say getting close to that resistance level was more of a coincidence. I only use FV calculations as a guide in spotting undervalued companies , and not as a predicting tool.</div>
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My selling strategy with stock prices which had a parabolic rise is to sell when prices revert back to a short term moving average (i.e. 20 SMA). One good use of having a FV is in avoiding bear traps (i.e. selling too soon). That was a good +45% gain and an escape for me from the imminent breakdown.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzAMTKC04z-6sj6dMQeLIdw6WrzOFnGV-JMAqlhlpOZKM4YmBocYyX5JIwYB3FBY09MSgOSQwfLZPduRdGOKccqU2UYOg1hsA3AjfwEZo7bUZif2UftFU2l_JuykEwwlZ-KyAtpYFbSiU/s1600/cpg2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzAMTKC04z-6sj6dMQeLIdw6WrzOFnGV-JMAqlhlpOZKM4YmBocYyX5JIwYB3FBY09MSgOSQwfLZPduRdGOKccqU2UYOg1hsA3AjfwEZo7bUZif2UftFU2l_JuykEwwlZ-KyAtpYFbSiU/s1600/cpg2.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><i>Steep rise by the end of 2012</i></b></div>
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Looking at the company disclosures, I don't see much relevant news except the announcement of the <a href="http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/289324/economy/companies/century-properties-in-p800-m-share-buyback-program-to-enhance-valuation" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">800 Million, 2-year share buyback program</a> which was announced on January 8, 2013. Seems like some insiders already bought before the announcement, and as soon as CPG started buying back millions of shares, the rise continued.</div>
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<b><i>Sudden crash in May 2013?</i></b></div>
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Another interesting event was the declaration of <a href="http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/308900/economy/companies/century-properties-board-approves-capital-increase" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">increase in Authorized Capital Stock (ACS) </a>on May 17, 2013. Although I think increasing ACS does not usually have an effect, seemed like the news was received negatively by the market. This may be because of the big increase from 10B to 18B authorized capital which may imply dilution soon in the form of new equity sales (i.e. private placement, SRO, etc). At the same time, 25% stock dividends were also declared; however, this remained to be TBA until now. Good thing I went out before that plunge.</div>
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<b><i>Company BuyBack</i></b></div>
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BuyBacks can be seen as positive flags, wherein the company itself sees its own stock being undervalued. In the chart above, the yellow spots indicate the time when CPG bought back its shares. You may also refer to the table below for the figures. As for the green spots, these are the times that I have bought for accumulation. If I compare myself with an 800M Peso buyback fund, then certainly buying below what the CPG (average: 1.51) has been buying so far makes me feel more comfortable. This is a 2-year program, and CPG has barely used its ammo with just3% (26M) bought so far.</div>
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Buybacks:</div>
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<table border="2" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="color: #333333; font-family: sans-serif, Arial, Verdana, 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.7999992370605px; text-align: center; width: 500px;"><thead>
<tr><th scope="col">Date</th><th scope="col">Shares</th><th scope="col">Price per Share</th></tr>
</thead><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;">January 9, 2013</span></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.5 M</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.73</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;">January 10, 2013</span></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">2.7 M</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.73</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;">January 23, 2013</span></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">236 k</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.75</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;">June 17, 2013</span></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">3 M</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.73</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;">June 26, 2013</span></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">2 M</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.48</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;">August 1, 2013</span></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">5 M</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.33</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;">September 24, 2014</span></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.22 M</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.26</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;">September 25, 2014</span></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">500 k</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.31</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;">October 1, 2014</span></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">620 k</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.26</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;">October 2, 2014</span></td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">500 k</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1.25</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">TOTAL</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">17.27 M</td><td style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">Average: <b>1.51</b></td></tr>
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<table class="type1" style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: thoma, arial, Verdana, sans-serif; margin: 15px 0px; text-align: justify; width: 687px;"><tbody>
<tr style="page-break-inside: avoid;"><th style="background-color: #eeeeee; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #444444; font-size: 0.8em; padding: 3px; width: 130px;">Cumulative Number of Shares Purchased to Date <sup>1</sup></th><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-size: 0.8em; padding: 3px;"><span class="valInput " style="display: block; font-size: 1.1em;">17,270,000</span></td></tr>
<tr style="page-break-inside: avoid;"><th style="background-color: #eeeeee; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #444444; font-size: 0.8em; padding: 3px; width: 130px;">Total Amount Appropriated for the Buy-Back Program</th><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-size: 0.8em; padding: 3px;"><span class="valInput " style="display: block; font-size: 1.1em;">800,000,000</span></td></tr>
<tr style="page-break-inside: avoid;"><th style="background-color: #eeeeee; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #444444; font-size: 0.8em; padding: 3px; width: 130px;">Total Amount of Shares Repurchased</th><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-size: 0.8em; padding: 3px;"><span class="valInput " style="display: block; font-size: 1.1em;">26,124,898.16</span></td></tr>
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<i>(data from company disclosures: edge.com.pse.com)</i></div>
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The company have bought shares recently at current levels, which could mean a good support above 1.2.</div>
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CPG still owes its shareholders some stock dividends as was promised. Currently still TBA. Take note, this can lead to further decline in the stock price due to dividend adjustment.</div>
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<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="reference" style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); text-align: justify; width: 100%px;"><tbody>
<tr><td bgcolor="#215D9C" style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">Year</span></td><td bgcolor="#215D9C" style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">Stock</span></td><td bgcolor="#215D9C" style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">Cash</span></td><td bgcolor="#215D9C" style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">Splits.</span></td><td bgcolor="#215D9C" style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">Rights</span></td><td bgcolor="#215D9C" style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">Ex-Date</span></td><td bgcolor="#215D9C" style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">Record Date</span></td><td bgcolor="#215D9C" style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">Payable</span></td></tr>
<tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">YEAR</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">STOCK</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">CASH</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">SPLITS</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">RIGHTS</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">EX-DATE</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">RECORD</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">PAYABLE</span></td></tr>
<tr bgcolor="#efefef"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">2014</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">20.65%</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">-</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">-</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">-</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">TBA</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">TBA</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">TBA</span></td></tr>
<tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">2014</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">-</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">0.019046</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">-</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">-</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">12-May-2014</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">15-May-2014</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">05-Jun-2014</span></td></tr>
<tr bgcolor="#efefef"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">2013</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">25%</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">-</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">-</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">-</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">TBA</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">TBA</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(195, 195, 195); padding: 1.5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top;"><span style="color: #424542; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px;">TBA</span></td></tr>
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<i><span style="font-size: xx-small;">(from COLFinancial.com)</span></i></div>
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In an <a href="http://prudentinvestornewsletters.blogspot.com/2013/10/when-will-century-properties-group-wean.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">article</a> posted by the<a href="http://prudentinvestornewsletters.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> Prudent Investor</a> last Oct 2013, he highlighted that CPG has been into aggressive leveraging with the current low-interest rate environment. Putting all the above together, this explains CPG's corporate strategy which are as follows:</div>
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1.) <b><i>Increase Leverage</i></b> - take advantage of low interest rate environment to further Return on Equity.</div>
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2.) <i><b>Increase of Authorized Capital Stock</b> </i>- High debt over equity would be bad for the books as it implies greater risk for the company (risk being shifted towards the lenders). Increasing ACS signals that they will soon raise capital via equity, eventually lowering leverage ratios.</div>
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3.) <b><i>Company Buyback program</i></b> - Accumulation of treasury shares which may be used in the future for re-issuance. Can be used as a signal for undervaluation (to support/push stock's price). I don't think CPG is obliged to use up all the 800M peso for share repurchasing; it's more of an option for them.</div>
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4.) <b><i>Stock Dividends</i></b> - Retained earnings (i.e. cash) are kept by the firm and instead stocks are to be distributed to shareholders.</div>
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5.) <i><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Grand Finale: Equity sale</b> </span></i> - The preceding steps all lead to one thing: CPG will most likely raise capital via share sales. These can be in the form of private placements, Rights Offers, etc.</div>
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<b>What's in it for retail investors like me?</b></div>
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I haven't checked again on the company's fundamentals (updated earnings, dilution effects, etc) to see if CPG is still being undervalued and has manageable risk (Hopefully soon!). In terms of trading the stock, it is good to note relevant events that may trigger price movements, both positive and negative. This gives me a more informed decision when timing my trades.</div>
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As in the case of the impending equity sale, this may not happen soon, but there would most likely be a build up on the stock's price before CPG will start raising capital via equity. The company buybacks can be a good price entry point and accumulation is key while the stock is at its lows and at its least risky state (easy to cut loss during breakdown). When the stock price starts to fly due to the increase of buying demand, that's the time to prepare for an exit before CPG starts declaring an equity sale.</div>
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<b>As always for the readers, caveat.</b></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Personal Disclosure: As mentioned earlier, I have been accumulating on this one, among other stocks.</b></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">This post does not give a comprehensive analysis on the company/industry. This is only a summary or a company snapshot as of the date it was posted. Stocks featured in this blog are being chosen arbitrarily, and are only intended for the blog owner's personal consumption; not as a form of solicitation to buy or to sell. Comments from readers who would like to point out errors, to share ideas, etc are most welcome. </span></div>
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ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-79129240679366637072014-08-31T19:50:00.001+08:002014-08-31T19:50:10.602+08:00MSCI August QIR 2014: Effect on Total Turnover Value of the Philippine MarketI didn't monitor much of foreign fund flows until now. The Philippine market being relatively small and illiquid can easily be swayed by the entrance and exit of foreign money. Regardless of companies having solid fundamentals and being undervalued, if foreign investors decided to get out of our market, surely stock prices will be pulled down by the large selling of these monstrous funds.<br /><br />"MSCI Rebalancing" has already been a buzzword with local investors. Certain stocks move as based on the increase/decrease of its weight, more so with the case of inclusion/exclusion as a constituent of an MSCI index.<br /><br />The announcement (w/c includes the list of concerned stocks) has been announced early August; however, the actual Rebalancing happened on August 29. Take a look on the Total Turnover Value of the Philippine market during that time.<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcAccxZlH573f66aPFkibUmaidPMonZPIMgA-6LjLRcpvX2-qCAtVE-mFLoesTmsYyq3hPtckyEeGxeL-omkWMH9UMY4Oe6gIKlnonLBU5Q3czZp_mJxLR4Rh0GyAF1zk2rPXGRQrkVyQ/s1600/Screen+shot+2014-08-31+at+7.07.08+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcAccxZlH573f66aPFkibUmaidPMonZPIMgA-6LjLRcpvX2-qCAtVE-mFLoesTmsYyq3hPtckyEeGxeL-omkWMH9UMY4Oe6gIKlnonLBU5Q3czZp_mJxLR4Rh0GyAF1zk2rPXGRQrkVyQ/s1600/Screen+shot+2014-08-31+at+7.07.08+PM.png" height="337" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Philippine Market Activity<br />c/o www.investagrams.com</td></tr>
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<br />More importantly, it is good to note that Foreign buying is still dominant, which means market rise as shown through the PSE index is still being supported at this point.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-71102029685598178372013-08-11T13:57:00.001+08:002013-08-11T13:57:33.758+08:00Spotlight: Vantage Equities, Inc<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://www.vantage.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/vantage_logo2-300x123.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.vantage.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/vantage_logo2-300x123.png" /></a></div>
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<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
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The company was originally organized for oil and gas exploration in 1992 under the name iVantage Corporation. By October 2000, the primary purpose of the firm has been changed to financial holdings and investments, including but not limited to IT companies and related ventures.<br />
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In June 2006, the Corporation divested its shareholdings in International Exchange Bank, its single largest investment at that time. The iBank sale generated Php2.9B. The Corporation decided to invest its Php2.9B war chest in portfolio of equity and fixed income securities. For this purpose, the Company hired its current President in October 2006 along with a team of finance professionals. The current team is also tasked to further professionalize management of the Vantage Group of Companies.</div>
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Major Subsidiaries</h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjilHvC-LMePWcVahfG96DKgOrYZAMss136GaI1bdVDbYprABlBVHJeoANuhVzofejGQbR04dWYtj93iceP4GlHJXdTpQWNaPvZXgckvy3Pdl3emByTJCoCcmShRa6MaiIbWOLvwBBFZ4s/s1600/Screen+shot+2013-08-10+at+10.37.25+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjilHvC-LMePWcVahfG96DKgOrYZAMss136GaI1bdVDbYprABlBVHJeoANuhVzofejGQbR04dWYtj93iceP4GlHJXdTpQWNaPvZXgckvy3Pdl3emByTJCoCcmShRa6MaiIbWOLvwBBFZ4s/s640/Screen+shot+2013-08-10+at+10.37.25+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>1.) E-Business Services, Inc (100%)</b><br />
<b> </b>- engaged in the fund transfer and remittance services, both domestic and abroad. E-Business has an existing Representation Agreement with Western Union Financial Services, Inc. (top 3 among its direct agents) covering its fund transfer and remittance services for 7 years (Sept 2007 to Aug 2014). Subsidiary, eBiz Financial handles the financing business.<br />
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<b>2.) iCurrencies, Inc. (100%)</b><br />
- organized primarily to engage in the business of buying and selling foreign currencies. However in 2001, a new circular issued by the Central Bank required for additional documentation including a minimum paid-up capital of Php50 Million. iCurrencies decided to stop its business as a Foreign Exchange Corporation (FxCorps) due to the regulatory changes. In the meantime, iCurrencies is sustained by income on its investments and interest income on its funds.<br />
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<a href="http://www.vantage.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Screen-Shot-2012-12-13-at-1.06.02-AM-300x122.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="81" src="http://www.vantage.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Screen-Shot-2012-12-13-at-1.06.02-AM-300x122.png" style="cursor: move;" width="200" /></a></div>
<b>3.) Philequity Management, Inc - PEMI (51%) </b><br />
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- an Asset Management company with about Php3B in assets under management at end of 2008.<br />
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<b>4.) Unlaunched Funds as of Dec 2012 (100%)</b><br />
- Philequity Balanced Fund, Inc<br />
- Philequity Foreign Currency Fixed Income, Inc<br />
- Philequity Dividend Yield Fund, Inc<br />
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<a href="http://imageshack.us/a/img407/4304/yehey1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="121" src="http://imageshack.us/a/img407/4304/yehey1.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
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<b>5.) Yehey!</b><br />
<b> - </b>engaged in the business of internet online related products relating to database search engine, such as, but not limited to , conceptualizing, designing, illustrating, processing, and editing web sites. From a pioneering web portal in the late 90's, Yehey has grown into a leading digital on-line marketing solutions provider in the country. To support its growth, Vantage infused Php250M capital in Yehey in 2007.<br />
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<h3>
Key People </h3>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.philstar.com/sites/default/files/ColumnistPhotos/valentino-sy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.philstar.com/sites/default/files/ColumnistPhotos/valentino-sy.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valentino Sy - also a Philstar columnist for Philequity Corner. Owns 3%.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://lrwc.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Wilson-Sy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://lrwc.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Wilson-Sy.png" width="175" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Wilson Sy - Brother of the Chairman/CEO Valentino Sy. Owns 8.77%</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://lrwc.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://lrwc.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/10.png" width="175" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">WillyN. Ocier - Also involved with Belle Corporation. Owns 0.31%</td></tr>
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1.) Valentino L. Sy - Chairman and CEO, Director since 2002. Holds top positions on businesses that are into steel trade. BS Industrial Management Engineering graduate from DLSU.<br />
2.) Edmundo P. Bunyi - President and COO, Director since 2006. Pres & CEO of e-Business Services and Pres & COO of Philequity Management. Former Senior Vice President and Treasurer of International Exchange Bank, AVP and Head of FX Sales of UCPB, Asst Manager for Corporate Banking for Far East Bank & Union Bank. BS Management Engineering graduate from Ateneo.<br />
3.) Ignacio B. Gimenez - Director since 2003. Treasurer of I.B. Gimenez Securities, a stock brokerage firm. President of several Mutual Funds: Philequity Fund, Philequity Dollar Income Fund, Philequity PSE Index Fund, and Philequity Peso Bond Fund. Also Sales and Marketing Manager of Society Publishing. Earned an MBA from AIM.<br />
4.) Willy N. Ocier - Chairman & President, Director since 1999. Co-Vice Chair of Belle Corporation and Highlands Prime. Chairman of APC Group, Sinophil Corporation.</div>
5.) Wilson L. Sy - Reelected to the Board in 2005. Brother of Valentino Sy. Vice Chair of Asian Alliance Holdings, Director of Philequity Management. Independent Director of Tagaytay Highlands. Former Chairman of the Philippine Stock Exchange. Director, Basic Petroleum & Minerals, Belle Corp, A. Brown Corporation, Jollibee Foods, among others. Management Engineering graduate from Ateneo.<br />
6.) Antonio Samson - Director since 2005. Group Chairman/ Chief Business Strategist of DDB Worldwide Communications Group, an advertising company. Former EVP in PLDT and concurrently President and CEO of MediaQuest Holdings. MBA from AIM, Masters in Business Economics from UAP, Economics from Ateneo.<br />
7.) Gregorio Kilayko - Independent Director in 2012, also for SMPH, BELLE, HP. Former PSE Governor in 1996 and 2000. MBA from Wharton. <br />
8.) A. Bayani K. Tan - Corporate Secretary, also with other companies: First Abacus Financial, BELLE, Sinophil Corp, Tagaytay Highlands, Touch Solutions, I-Remit, Philequity Funds, TKC Steel Corporation, among others. Managing Partner of Tan Venturanza Valdez Law Offices. Director/Corporate Secretary of Private Companies such as : Sterling Bank, Medicare Plus, etc. Master of Laws from New York University, Bachelor of Laws from UP.</div>
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<h3>
Dividend Policy</h3>
No cash dividends have ever been declared. In 2008, 5% property dividend was brought out distributing Yehey stocks to its shareholders, paving way to Yehey's listing by way of introduction to the PSE.<br />
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Quick Numbers</h2>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (AR 2012): ~Php6.6B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~2.24B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 2.97</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 0%<br />Beta: </span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">0.48</span><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Cost of Capital: 8.4%</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Net Income (Realized): </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 : Php 570M</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2011: Php 530M<br />2010: Php 716M</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: Php 587M</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Net Income (Takes account of increase in market value of Assets For Sale): </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 : Php 1.09B</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2011: Php 668M<br />2010: Php 893M</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: Php 926M</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br />A conservative assumption of long-term growth (3% yearly), would put the fair value of the company (</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">based on earnings - DCF analysis)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> between:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php 5.13 to 8.02</i></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The lower FV estimate is computed from the realized Net Income while the higher FV (8.02) uses the Net Income that takes into account the market value of Assets For Sale. Take note that in 2012, unrealized gains reached to as much as 500M due to its equity investments on a bullish environment. For conservative purposes, I would still base my decision on the realized income having sustainable growth at 3% yearly. At current market price of 2.58, this gives us a 99% upside in the future. This is even below current book value.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Another factor that boosts our fair value estimate is the low Beta (0.47) which makes this stock a good addition to my portfolio.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
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<span style="text-align: justify;">Nothing impressive with the charts and so I mapped it with the timing of disclosures. The decline in May coincided with the breakdown of the market and has nothing to do with the earnings results. Earnings were actually good with a potential 500M increase if all AFS were sold. Thus, May-June was a good opportunity to buy for value investors. V has no history of giving out dividends, instead the company prefers share buybacks as evident on the recent activities. Starting August, the company already had bought back at prices averaging at 2.60.</span></div>
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<h2>
Analysis</h2>
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Bulk of the company's gains are basically coming from its direct investments to equity and fixed income assets. Because of this, I believe the performance of this company is tied to general market conditions of our local market. This is not a heavily traded stock; thus, does not move along the directions of the market. Investing into this stock is just like getting a free ride on the investments of the Finance professionals in this company. However, we wouldn't expect getting cash dividends but could rather gain through capital appreciation.<br />
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I'm not a fan of Yehey but I wouldn't be too much concerned with it as it is just a small part of the company. It may be possible that they plan to leverage their digital services with their remittance/fx business soon. Given that performance of the company's investments are good and the stock remains undervalued, I believe this is a good buy; thus, would personally include into my portfolio. I already have a starting position on this for my speculative port and plan to increase it more.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">References: Financial Statement of V (AR 2012)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"> Images via Google search</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">This post does not give a comprehensive analysis on the company/industry. This is only a summary or a company snapshot as of the date it was posted. Spotlight stocks featured in this blog are being chosen arbitrarily, and are only intended for the blog owner's personal consumption; not as a form of solicitation to buy or to sell. Comments from readers who would like to point out errors, to share ideas, etc are most welcome. </span>ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-73070189122367877362013-06-02T20:44:00.001+08:002013-06-02T20:46:39.181+08:00Spotlight: Crown Equities Incorporated<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.stockmarketpilipinas.com/attachment.php?aid=155" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="111" src="http://www.stockmarketpilipinas.com/attachment.php?aid=155" width="320" /></a></div>
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<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The company started out engaging in exploration and development of mines under the corporate name, Leyte Base Mining Corporation, Inc in 1969. In 1993, the firm have shifted focus onto oil exploration and changed the name to Pacific Rim Oil and Resources Corporation. 2 years later, the board decided to divest from the oil business and shift towards being an investment holdings company.<br />
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The corporation's main business is the acquisition, development and sale of real estate properties, either through its own subsidiaries or through tie-ups with major real estate and property development companies in the field. The corporation also delivers medical and health services to outpatients through its ambulatory care centers.</div>
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<h3>
Subsidiaries and Projects</h3>
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<b>1.) Real Estate and Property Development</b></div>
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a.) <b><i>Ceres Property Venture, Inc</i></b> (CPVI) - organized primarily to acquire, develop and sell real estate properties. Started commercial operations in 2010. Owns over 4 hectares of real estate properties along Levi B. Mariano Ave in Taguig City. CPVI has ownership interest in Cypress Towers which gave around 20% to the Corporation's total revenue for 2012 (45% in 2011). The land where Cypress Towers now stand was owned by CEI's subsidiary.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://crownequitiesinc.com/images/stories/cypress1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://crownequitiesinc.com/images/stories/cypress1.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cypress Towers - Developed in partnership with DMCI</td></tr>
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b.) <b><i>Crown Central Properties Corporation (CCPC)</i></b> - Joint venture with Solid Share Holdings, Inc. In 2003, CCPC entered into a Memorandum of Agreement with Sta. Lucia Realty whereby land is formed by the latter and CCPC shall be responsible for completing the development of the subdivision project. Sharing agreement was 60-40% in favor of CCPC.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://palmareal.opmc.ph/images/map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="319" src="http://palmareal.opmc.ph/images/map.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Palma Real - In partnership with Sta Lucia Realty. Project completed and marketing in progress. Contributed 25% to Total Revenue in 2012</td></tr>
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<b><i>c.) CEI Development Corp (CEIDC)</i></b> - owns over 50 hectares of real estate property in Sto. Tomas, Batangas. Some of the properties are still in the process of titling. Sells house units for buyers in Palma Real Residential Estates.</div>
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<b><i>d.) Parkfield Land Holdings, Inc (PLHI)</i></b> - 75% owned subsidiary of the Corporation. PLHI owns 92 hectares of land located in San Jose del Monte, Bulacan. No significant business development so far.</div>
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2.) <b>Healthcare</b> </div>
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<i style="font-weight: bold;">a.) Healthcare System of Asia Phils, Inc - </i>contributed 41% of Total Revenue for the year 2012</div>
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<b>FortMed Medical Clinics </b> http://www.fortmed.org/ </div>
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- Makati clinic (Jupiter St) started out in 1997 while the 2nd clinic located at Sta Rosa, Laguna started in 1998.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://s-yoolk-images0.yoolk.com/ph/gallery_images/medium/1367036309/236435?1367036309" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="150" src="http://s-yoolk-images0.yoolk.com/ph/gallery_images/medium/1367036309/236435?1367036309" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: center;">
Makati clinic is located within the vicinity of Bel-Air Village while the Laguna clinic is located in Greenfield Business Park, Sta. Rosa.</div>
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<h3>
Key People </h3>
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1.) George L. Go - Chairman of the Board. Also the chairman of the ff: Healthcare Systems of Asia Philippines, Asian Alliance Holdings and GLG Crown Holdings. Also a director of Shang Properties, Inc. and Asian Alliance Investment Corporation. BS Econ grad from Youngstown University in the US and completed an advanced management program in Harvard Business school.<br />
2.) Wilfrido V. Vergara - Vice Chairman of the Board. He is Chairman/Vice Chairman/Director of most subsidiaries under CEI. Obtained Bachelor's degree from Ateneo.<br />
3.) Ramon Recto - Independent Director, member of Audit and Nomination committee. President of Marcventures, former president of Lepanto Mining Corporation. BS EE/ME from UP and MS Industrial Management from the same university.<br />
4.) Isidro Consunji - Independent Director. President of DMCI and Director of other companies such as Semirara Mining, Atlas Mining, Carmen Copper, DMCI , among others.<br />
5.) Patrick Warren Go - Director. Managing Director of Healthcare Systems of Asia Phils. Former VP at Banco De Oro. Bachelors graduate of Finance and Real Estate from San Francisco University. Son of George L. Go. </div>
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<h3>
Dividend Policy</h3>
No dividends have been declared over the past 3 years.<br />
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<h2>
Quick Numbers</h2>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (AR 2012): ~Php1.68B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~13.6B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 0.123</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 0%<br />Beta: </span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">0.823</span><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Cost of Capital: 10.4%</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Net Income: </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 : Php 13.5M</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2011: Php 22.19M<br />2010: Php 12.4M</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: Php 15.88M<br /><br /><br />A conservative assumption of long-term growth (3% yearly), would put the fair value of the company (</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">based on earnings - DCF analysis)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> at around:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php 0.033</i></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></span>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">As of May 31, 2013, current market price is at 0.081 which is already way beyond our fair value price in terms of growth.</span></div>
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4kj8TXcO_jLxLP0RU3kt546WvuwKswzZ9B5m0zGDRBOmnA0Sl3B-zhVMxJCMi7UjcjONu8trU2JwYUK-PtYapIui3qr7ovb5mEIIFigv6IV0B7jankZePqKL7BR8YD36cJ5nyyhQNX04/s1600/CEI+chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4kj8TXcO_jLxLP0RU3kt546WvuwKswzZ9B5m0zGDRBOmnA0Sl3B-zhVMxJCMi7UjcjONu8trU2JwYUK-PtYapIui3qr7ovb5mEIIFigv6IV0B7jankZePqKL7BR8YD36cJ5nyyhQNX04/s640/CEI+chart.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="text-align: justify;">CEI has been trading on range between .062 and 0.089. Last time it reached its peak was on March 2012. I only got interested with this stock lately when I saw the huge volume transaction for May 31, 2013. It turns out that it was just a cross-trade within Public Securities for some reasons unknown. For other days, CEI remains to be illiquid despite a public float of 71%.</span></div>
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<h2>
Analysis</h2>
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CEI's source of growth for the short term would come from sales of units from the Palma Real project. Although the Cypress Towers project would still continue to generate revenue, most of the profit already came in as early as 2011. CEI's landbank through its subsidiaries remain idle and has no business prospect yet within the year.<br />
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Majority of the corporation's revenues is still expected to come from its health care business. However, I noticed through their financial statements that operating expenses outrun their revenues. This is definitely not sustainable especially when I see that it has been already the case for the last 3 years.<br />
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Current market price at .081 is lower than the book value of 0.12 which may be of interest for value players out there. Personally, I am looking for an undervalued stock with growth potential and the latter is what CEI lacks for now. If ever I am going to buy using technicals, I think I'd rather wait at 0.06 levels which is near the trading range support.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">References: Financial Statement of CEI (AR 2012)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"> Images via Google search</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">This post does not give a comprehensive analysis on the company/industry. This is only a summary or a company snapshot as of the date it was posted. Spotlight stocks featured in this blog are being chosen arbitrarily, and are only intended for the blog owner's personal consumption; not as a form of solicitation to buy or to sell. Comments from readers who would like to point out errors, to share ideas, etc are most welcome. </span>ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-86255624230052136752013-02-03T17:03:00.002+08:002013-02-03T17:26:24.646+08:00Spotlight: The Philodrill Corporation (OV)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.philodrill.com/images/phologo100.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.philodrill.com/images/phologo100.jpg" /></a></div>
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<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
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Philodrill Corporation was incorporated in 1969, with the primary purpose of engaging in oil, gas and mineral exploration and development. The company has also registered being a diversified holding company, investing in petroleum exploration and production, financial services, property development, mining and infrastructure development, as its secondary purpose.<br />
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The company's active petroleum projects cover production and exploration areas in offshore Palawan and South Sulu Sea and onshore Mindoro under various Service Contracts (SC) with the Philippine government through the Department of Energy (DOE).<br />
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In the financial services sector, the company is a 40% shareholder of Penta Capital Investment Corporation (Penta Capital), an investment house.<br />
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In the mining sector, the company holds minor equity interests in the following companies: Atlas Consolidated Mining, Vulcan Industrial & Mining Corporation, and United Paragon Mining Corporation.</div>
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<h3>
Petroleum Projects</h3>
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<a href="http://www.philodrill.com/images/pho_pet_interest700.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://www.philodrill.com/images/pho_pet_interest700.jpg" width="238" /></a></div>
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1.) SC 14 (Nido, Matinloc and North Matinloc) - in production. Block operator: OV. For further revaluation. Based on crude oil sales agreement, all were sold to Pilipinas Shell generating 11% of total gross revenues. OV interest 26.106%, 41.608%, 33.111% respectively.</div>
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2.) SC 14 C-1 (Galoc - Northwest Palawan) - in production. onto Phase 2 development. Field operator: Galoc Production Company (GPC). Other Partners: Nido Petroleum Phils, OPM, FEP. 7.21495% OV interest. Oil being sold to foreign companies (i.e. GS Caltex Singapore, SK Energy International)</div>
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3.) SC 14 C-2 (West Linacapan) - Block operator: Pitkin Petroleum. 50% JV with Resource Management Associates Pty. 7.0175% OV interest</div>
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4.) SC 14 (Retention Block, Tara, and Libro) - no exploration. Operator: OV. 33.751%, 27.5%, respective OV interest.</div>
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5.) SC 6A (Octon - Northwest Palawan) - new block operator : Pitkin Petroleum. Partners: PetroEnergy Resources Corp, Anglo Phil Holdings, Trans-Asia Oil & Development, Forum Energy Philippines, Philex Petroleum, Alcorn Gold Resources Corp. 15.495% OV interest. Status: Exploration</div>
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6.) SC 6B (Bonita - Northwest Palawan) - farm-in groups: VenturOil Philippines, Peak Oil and Gas Phil Ltd., Blade Petroleum Philippines Ltd. Transfer and assignment of block operatorship from OV to Peak Oil, if approved. Other partners: Phoenix Gas&Oil Explo Co, Oriental Pet. & Minerals Corp., TA, FEP, Alcorn Gold Resources, Corp. 6.5625% OV interest. Status: Exploration.</div>
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7.) SC 41 (Sulu Sea) - still looking for prospective partners </div>
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8.) SC 53 (Onshore Mindoro) - block operator: Pitkin Petroleum. Evaluation progressing. Other Partners: RMA Pty, APO, Basic Consolidated Mining Corp. (BSC). 22% OV interest. Expiry date: 7/2014. Status: Exploration.</div>
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9.) Swan Block - ongoing negotiations with PNOC-EC</div>
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<h3>
Key People </h3>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://specials-images.forbes.com/imageserve/0fUyd9C9zlb8Z/186x282.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://specials-images.forbes.com/imageserve/0fUyd9C9zlb8Z/186x282.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Son of National Bookstore founder, Soccoro Ramos. <br />Chairman/President of Atlas Mining</td></tr>
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Listed as #30 in the Forbes' list of top 40 Richest in the Philippines, the Ramos family has been actively involved in transporation, oil & gas exploration, mining, property development, etc. The family started out with the success of National Bookstore, founded by Mrs. Soccoro Ramos, Alfredo's mother.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
1.) Alfredo C. Ramos - President/CEO and Chairman of the Board. Held directorship in Atlas Mining (AT), Anglo Philippines Holdings (APO), MRT Development Corp, National Book Store (NBS), Shang properties (SHANG), United Paragon Mining (UPM), Vulacan Mining (VUL), etc.</div>
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2.) Nicasio Alcantara - Independent Director. Held directorship in Alsons Corporation (ACR), BDO Private Bank, Seafront petroleum. Listed #5 top shareholder (0.1892%)</div>
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3.) Christopher M. Gotanco - Director. Held directorship in APO, Boulevard Holdings (BHI), MRT Dev Corp., Penta Capital, VUL.</div>
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4.) Honorio A. Poblador III - Independent Director.</div>
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5.) Presentacion S. Ramos - Director. Held directorship in Alakor Securities, APO, NBS, VUL. Wife of Alfredo Ramos.</div>
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6.) Adrian S. Ramos - Director. Held directorship in Alakor Securities, APO, AT, Carmen Copper, UPM, VUL. Son of Alfredo and Presentacion Ramos.</div>
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7.) Augusto Sunico - Held directorship in Alakor Securities,Anglo Philippines Holdings, Manuel L Quezon University, Penta Capital, UPM, VUL. Brother in law of Alfredo Ramos.</div>
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8.) Marciano Padilla - Director. Held directorship in AT, Padi's Point Restaurant Group.</div>
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<h3>
Companies among the 20 Top Stockholders</h3>
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1.) Alson Consolidated Resources, Inc - 0.2953% (#2)<br />
2.) Vulcan Industrial & Mining Corp - 0.1201% (#10)<br />
3.) Ayala Corporation - 0.098% (#13)<br />
<h3>
Dividend Policy</h3>
Subject to availability of funds and balance of Retained Earnings. Previous Dividend Yields register to around 3-5%.<br />
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<a href="http://www.philodrill.com/images/galoc_swivelstack.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://www.philodrill.com/images/galoc_swivelstack.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<h2>
Quick Numbers</h2>
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span>
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<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (3Q 2012): ~Php3.19B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~191.9B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 0.0166</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 0%<br />Beta: </span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">0.925</span><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Cost of Capital: 10.9%</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Net Income: </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 3Q: Php 283.5M (projected)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2011: Php 1.065B<br />2010: Php 557M</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2009: Php 108.6M</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2008: Php 15.1M </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: Php 555M<br /><br /><br />A conservative assumption of long-term growth (3% yearly), would put the fair value of the company (</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">based on earnings - DCF analysis)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> at around:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php 0.038</i></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></span>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The latest price as of 2/1/13 is Php 0.044. </span><span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">Oil production has still not been consistent as some sites may be needed to be closed for added improvements. The company is also finding ways to lessen the cost and to improve production. This earnings projection only involves income coming from the production sites. Potential income coming from the other sites currenly being explored has not yet been factored in. Opening of an oil well could result to a huge gain in revenues. Assuming by 2013, OV's target of Php1B net income is to be realized moving forward, then we can raise the stock's fair value price at around 0.078, even at conservative growth levels.</span></div>
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYPkX6_yGzP-isrjvhBI7q6fZ8711AGp3NXm_EYQ_25is3EAb78lJAXeHprrdxFkXzAeDHCLlSS8Il11-JhO7mHqq9GJtlMPD2FlymhwyuSp-Q3oHKkkH20DeHCPmQDyoaTsGyHnV6zWU/s1600/OV.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYPkX6_yGzP-isrjvhBI7q6fZ8711AGp3NXm_EYQ_25is3EAb78lJAXeHprrdxFkXzAeDHCLlSS8Il11-JhO7mHqq9GJtlMPD2FlymhwyuSp-Q3oHKkkH20DeHCPmQDyoaTsGyHnV6zWU/s640/OV.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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One year major support line stands at 0.038. There has been exuberant buying last year which pushed prices up to 0.061. Tracing on past news, the run-up was caused most likely by the 5% cash dividend declaration in February, for which the stock price went back towards support at ex-div. Technical indicators still show weak momentum. An anticipated cash dividend declaration may not provide enough catalyst, given that last year's income were not as big as in 2011; cash div may not be that big.</div>
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<h2>
Analysis</h2>
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It may be a coincidence that the 1-year support line is equivalent to our conservative fair value at 0.038. If one remains to be bullish in our upstream oil industry; thereby hopeful that exploration efforts down south are going to be fruitful, then buying at current levels is relatively safe.</div>
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The company forecasts its income to reach the Php1B mark next year and may even double in 2014. Although be reminded that this is more of a company target and is still subject to market conditions (oil prices) and the finishing of new oil wells. </div>
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PD: I have entered initially into OV at 0.044 based on technicals as prices broke a minor resistance at 0.042, and is now above the ichimoku cloud. Given this recent research on the company's fundamentals pointing current prices are at fair value, I only intend to trade this stock within a range. I believe this one will still remain a sleeper until new oil wells are declared to be open.</div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">References: Financial Statements of OV (3Q 2012, AR 2011)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"> Images via Google search</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">This post does not give a comprehensive analysis on the company/industry. This is only a summary or a company snapshot as of the date it was posted. Spotlight stocks featured in this blog are being chosen arbitrarily, and are only intended for the blog owner's personal consumption; not as a form of solicitation to buy or to sell. Comments from readers who would like to point out errors, to share ideas, etc are most welcome. </span>ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-591397037259527252013-01-20T12:28:00.001+08:002013-02-03T10:58:45.841+08:00Spotlight: Lopez Holdings Corporation (LPZ)<br />
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<a href="http://lopezlink.ph/images/stories/july2010/lopez-holdings-logo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="181" src="http://lopezlink.ph/images/stories/july2010/lopez-holdings-logo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
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Formerly named Benpres Holdings Corporation, Lopez Holdings was incorporated in 1993 by the Lopez family to serve as the holding company for investments in major development sectors such as broadcasting and cable; telecommunications; power generation & distribution; and banking. It added to its portfolio, investments in other basic service sectors but has since sold its interest in banking, toll roads, information technology, property development and health care delivery.<br />
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Its current interests are in multimedia communications, including broadcast, cable and telecom, and power generation, especially in the development of clean, indigenous and/or renewable energy sources. No new business were developed in the last three years.</div>
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Subsidiaries</h3>
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1.) ABS-CBNBroadcasting Corporation (60.3%) - Broadcasting and Communications<br />
2.) Amcara Broadcasting Network, Inc. (49%) - Broadcasting and Communications<br />
3.) Bayanmap Corporation (51%) - Information Service Provider<br />
4.) Bayan Telecommunications Holdings Corporation (BayanTel) (47.3%) - Telecommunications<br />
5.) First Philippine Holdings Corporation (46.6%) - Power Generation and Distribution<br />
6.) Star Cinema Productions, Inc (45%) - Movie Production<br />
7.) Sky Vision Corporation (33.1%) - Investment Holdings<br />
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Key People </h3>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.people.nfo.ph/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Manuel-Lopez-01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.people.nfo.ph/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Manuel-Lopez-01.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Manuel M. Lopez, Chairman and CEO of LPZ</td></tr>
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1.) Oscar M. Lopez - Chairman Emeritus. Former President and CEO. Also Chairman Emeritus of First Philippine Holdings (FPH) and a director of Rockwell Land and ABS-CBN. BA and MA in Public Administration, Harvard.<br />
2.) Manuel M. Lopez - Chairman and CEO. Former Meralco President (1986-2001) and Chairman (2001-2012). Current Chairman of Rockwell Land, Sky Cable and Bayan; Vice-chairman of Lopez Inc; and a director of FPH, among others. BSBA from Harvard.<br />
3.) Eugenio L. Lopez III - Vice Chairman. Chairman and CEO of ABS-CBN since 1997; Director of SkyCable and Vice Chair of the board & President of Bayan, among others. MBA from Harvard.<br />
4.) Felipe B. Alonso - Director. Co-Vice Chairman of the board of Trustees of the Asian Institute of Management (AIM); former president (1990-1999). Law from Ateneo and MBA from New York University.<br />
5.) Washington Sycip - Independent Director.<br />
6.) Cesar E.A. Virata - Independent Director. Director and Corporate Vice Chairman of RCBC. Former Prime Minister of the Philippines (1981-1986). BSME and BSBA from UP; MBA from University of Pennsylvania.<br />
7.) Salvador G. Tirona - Director, President, COO, CFO. Former Director and CFO of Bayan; Former CFO of Maynilad.<br />
8.) Federico Lopez - Treasurer. Chairman and CEO of FPH and First Gen Corporation. Director of ABS-CBN and FGEN subsidiaries. Graduated from University of Pennsylvania.<br />
9.) Miguel L. Lopez - Vice President and Head of Corporate Affairs. Director of Rockwell Land. <br />
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* Oscar and Manuel Lopez are brothers. Eugenio Lopez III is their nephew. Federico Lopez is Oscar's son while Miguel Lopez is Manuel's.<br />
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Dividend Policy</h3>
Subject to approval by the Board.<br />
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History of Default</h3>
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LPZ (then Benpres Holdings) had a history of defaulting from its debts. The company declared a standstill in 2002 with as high as $560 million in debt obligations. For a decade, they have been restructuring their debt payments, some of which were paid at 65% of the principal amount while the others were earlier paid back at par. Lopez Holdings got hit hard by the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s, wherein the peso depreciated greatly amid huge dollar loans.</div>
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Quick Numbers</h2>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (3Q 2012): ~Php56.18B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~4.58B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 12.26</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 19%<br />Beta: 0.94<br />Cost of Capital: 6.4%<br /><br /><br />Net Income: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 3Q: Php 9.12B (projected)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2011: Php 5.05B<br />2010: Php 14.53B</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2009: Php 12.69B </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: Php 9.34B<br /><br /><br />A conservative assumption of long-term growth (3% yearly), would put the fair value of the company (</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">based on earnings - DCF analysis)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> at around:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php39.88 </i></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">As of January 18, 2013, the closing price is at 6.78 at conservative growth estimates makes this another multi-bagger stock. This makes sense as we also gave a high valuation on ABS-CBN, to which LPZ owns 60%. Other than the media industry, the company is also exposed to the power sector, having great growth prospects in the Philippines. The earnings; however, may be a bit bloated due to the company's previous sales of stakes (i.e. Meralco) which are non-recurring gains.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG7vuKT1j8UDQe-JjyTT3rD2IsWQkR9EjW8ni0R6Csog2EHxYg7ibwccK12GiMFNyHZDmFC_SNXQhfM9MJl79TuA0N3wKm0S_K4V5NDSK9YU9VN321yn6gHsFsY2Lo-UWIl2K8TKH-Rhs/s1600/lpz.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG7vuKT1j8UDQe-JjyTT3rD2IsWQkR9EjW8ni0R6Csog2EHxYg7ibwccK12GiMFNyHZDmFC_SNXQhfM9MJl79TuA0N3wKm0S_K4V5NDSK9YU9VN321yn6gHsFsY2Lo-UWIl2K8TKH-Rhs/s640/lpz.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Given strong fundamentals based on the company's yearly earnings for the past 4 years, I now view the chart from a long term perspective. Recent prices are now flirting with the 3 year high of 6.8. Either this will become a new support or (hopefully not) a bull trap. If it continues to go up further, it may follow the up trend range (green); else, need to setup a cut loss point somewhere below 6.8. </div>
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Analysis</h2>
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The high valuation of LPZ is consistent with the recent valuation of ABS for which is majority-owned by the company. The difference for the 2 stocks would be LPZ's exposure on the power sector which gives the benefit of diversification as compared to being fully exposed to the media sector only (ABS). In effect, LPZ will also earn more due to the election season, plus revenues coming from electricity generation when new plants become operational.<br />
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As the charts still show some vague bullishness, I have already entered initially and will accumulate more if ever prices drop in the short term. The Lopez family aims to wipe out all their debts (around $7.5million left) as they have already sold assets and stakes in other companies (i.e. Meralco). New investments will be pushed through after the restructuring is over.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">References: Financial Statements of LPZ (3Q 2012, AR 2011)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"> Images via Google search</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">This post does not give a comprehensive analysis on the company/industry. This is only a summary or a company snapshot as of the date it was posted. Spotlight stocks featured in this blog are being chosen arbitrarily, and are only intended for the blog owner's personal consumption; not as a form of solicitation to buy or to sell. Comments from readers who would like to point out errors, to share ideas, etc are most welcome. </span>ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-19214798593423676362013-01-12T13:57:00.001+08:002013-01-12T13:57:28.348+08:00ABS-CBN Corporation (ABS)<br />
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<a href="http://cdnimages.abs-cbnnews.com/topics/others/081312_2logo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://cdnimages.abs-cbnnews.com/topics/others/081312_2logo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Business Overview</h2>
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ABS-CBN Corporation (“ABS-CBN” or the “Company”) is the Philippines’ leading information and entertainment multimedia conglomerate. The Company is primarily involved in television and radio broadcasting, as well as in the production of television and radio programming for domestic and international audiences and other related businesses.</div>
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Throughout the years, the Company has evolved from a purely broadcasting business into a thriving multimedia content and distribution conglomerate that continues to be in the service of the Filipino. ABS-CBN has diversified its revenue sources; from relying mostly on airtime advertising revenue, the Company now sources about 40% of its sales direct from its consumers in the form of subscription and other services and goods.</div>
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<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cf/Abscbn_broadcast_center.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cf/Abscbn_broadcast_center.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Subsidiaries</h3>
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1.) ABS-CBN Film Productions, Inc - more popularly known as Star Cinema, is the country's leading film and producer and distributor.<br />
2.) ABS-CBN Global Ltd. - Pioneered the country's international direct-to-home (DTH) and cable channel service through The Filipino Channel (TFC).<br />
3.) ABS-CBN Interactive, Inc. - manages the company's new media ventures and strategies. This includes <i>Pinoycentral</i>, <i>TFCNow!</i>, <i>abs-cbnnews.com</i>, etc.<br />
4.) ABS-CBN Publishing, Inc - Currently has 13 glossy magazine titles, anchored by Metro, the country's leading fashion and lifestyle magazine.<br />
5.) Creative Programs, Inc. - manages and operates the Company's 7 cable channel offerings: CinemaOne, Myx, Hero, Lifestyle Network, Velvet, Balls<br />
6.) Sarimanok News Network, Inc / ABS-CBN News Channel (ANC) - the only 24/7 Filipino cable news channel in the country.<br />
7.) Sky Cable Corporation (56.7%) - country's largest cable TV service provider, and now also offering broadband services.<br />
8.) Star Recording, Inc. (Star Records) / Star Songs - recording outfit for multi-talented artists; also handles the Company's music publishing and composing requirements.<br />
9.) Studio 23, Inc - country's "free cable" channel.<br />
10.) ABS-CBN Foundation - non-stock, non-profit organization for public service. Includes Bantay Bata, Sagip Kapamilya, etc.<br />
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Key People </h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV8dx-vhKK08Pdd5F-K8peyR8qKirDVZZMQ4iwapzlzsOsfAoCRZjFUEZRYcVc4xtMjl5IRbcHZCWg6ugu_HZKKQmU1r_n9wbnAf84ldEBNzZryka3nJfeAiuxiSYaTRl3NfyKgkENzgOo/s1600/ABS-CBN+chair+Eugenio+Lopez+III.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV8dx-vhKK08Pdd5F-K8peyR8qKirDVZZMQ4iwapzlzsOsfAoCRZjFUEZRYcVc4xtMjl5IRbcHZCWg6ugu_HZKKQmU1r_n9wbnAf84ldEBNzZryka3nJfeAiuxiSYaTRl3NfyKgkENzgOo/s200/ABS-CBN+chair+Eugenio+Lopez+III.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
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1.) Eugenio L. Lopez III - Chairman of the Board of Directors/ CEO. Vice Chairman of Bayan Telecommunications, Director of Sky Vision Corporation; Director/Treasurer of Lopez Holdings Corporation; Director of First Gen Corporation. MBA from Harvard University.<br />
2.) Augusto Almeda-Lopez - Vice Chairman. Vice Chairman of First Philippine Holdings; Director for First Philippine Industrial Corporation, First Gen Renewables, Sky Vision Corporation, Bayan Telecommunications, etc. UP Law '1952<br />
3.) Ma. Rosario Santos-Concio - Board Member, President and COO. Also known as an actress, film and tv producer. She hosts the longest drama anthology, <i>Maalaala Mo Kaya. </i><br />
4.) Oscar M. Lopez - Director. Chairman Emeritus and Chief Strategic Officer of First Philippine Holdings Corporation; Chairman Emeritus of Lopez Holdings Corporation, First Gen and Energy Development Corporation. Vice Chairman of Rockwell Land. BA and MA in Public Administration, Harvard.<br />
5.) Federico R. Lopez - Director. Chairman and CEO of First Philippine Holdings; Chairman and CEO of First Gen and Energy Development Corporation; Board Member of FPH and EDC.<br />
6.) Manuel M. Lopez - Board Member. Chairman and CEO of Lopez Holdings Corporation; Chairman of Meralco, Rockwell Land, Bayan Telecommunications, SkyCable and INDRA Philippines; Vice Chairman of FPH; Philippine Ambassador to Japan.<br />
7.) Salvador G. Tirona - President and COO of Lopez Holdings Corporation. Former CFO of Maynilad and Bayan.<br />
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<h3>
Dividend Policy</h3>
Total amount of cash dividends does not exceed 50% of the Company's net income after taxes for the fiscal year preceding the declaration.<br />
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Quick Numbers</h2>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (3Q 2012): ~Php21B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~779.6M</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 27</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 37%<br />Beta: .45<br />Cost of Capital: 6.4%<br /><br /><br />Net Income: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 3Q: Php 1.82B (projected)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2011: Php 2.51B<br />2010: Php 3.24B</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2009: Php 1.76B </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: Php 2.3B<br /><br /><br />A conservative assumption of long-term growth (3% yearly), would put the fair value of the company (</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">based on earnings - DCF analysis)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> at around:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php195.30 </i></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">As of January 11, 2013, the closing price is at 39.85 at conservative growth estimates makes this a potential 4 bagger blue-chip stock! Although keep in mind, the market values a stock differently. This is no guarantee that target price will be reached within a short time frame.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7LYnCF5Xf2nucEiiLqf69ffQNr5PyosoPAoeMdhcMW05jGonBpd1UA59MiuFu4CpBUBKV5b4mTIqIdY5ubO3XgyaYebezi3CEnfgztHwL1msA_2CQ6NOwHn8PXsJfXMpRkHVNfz8EVRc/s1600/abs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7LYnCF5Xf2nucEiiLqf69ffQNr5PyosoPAoeMdhcMW05jGonBpd1UA59MiuFu4CpBUBKV5b4mTIqIdY5ubO3XgyaYebezi3CEnfgztHwL1msA_2CQ6NOwHn8PXsJfXMpRkHVNfz8EVRc/s640/abs.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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This is a 3-year chart highlighting previous high levels. Seems like a consolidation stage for now, but once it breaks the 41.75 resistance line (4.8% more), next stop is 56 (that's already 40% upside). If you notice the volume bar graphs below the line chart, period of noise came about around 2010 and now in 2013. The rest in between is just consolidation. Elections anyone? </div>
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<h2>
Analysis</h2>
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<div>
ABS-CBN is one silent behemoth just waiting on a corner. The company has been very profitable with an average of Php2B net income per year. Around Php10B is just sitting around in its equity bin, perhaps waiting for a big project to come. No wonder this cash-rich company can even further leverage itself with low interest bearing loans, having a healthy credit line among banks. <br />
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The charts may not show much bullishness for now, but with the elections scheduled this year, interest on media stocks will likely pick up as earnings are expected to increase dramatically. This stock is also nice to put in a portfolio, with its low beta at .45.<br />
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Whether it is election season or not, this is definitely a blue chip worth investing for the long term.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">References: Financial Statements of ABS (3Q 2012, AR 2011)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"> Images via Google search</span><br /><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">This post does not give a comprehensive analysis on the company/industry. This is only a summary or a company snapshot as of the date it was posted. Spotlight stocks featured in this blog are being chosen arbitrarily, and are only intended for the blog owner's personal consumption; not as a form of solicitation to buy or to sell. Comments from readers who would like to point out errors, to share ideas, etc are most welcome. </span><br />
ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-55765211273664433582012-12-26T14:41:00.001+08:002012-12-26T14:58:08.786+08:00Spotlight: RFM Corporation (RFM)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/RFM_Corporation_logo.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/RFM_Corporation_logo.gif" /></a></div>
<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
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RFM Corporation (the “Company”) is a major player in the food and beverage industry in the Philippines, specifically in the processing and manufacture of flour, flour-based products, milk and juice drinks, canned and processed meats, ice cream, and bottled mineral water.</div>
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<br />
The Company also operates non-food businesses, which include barging services (Rizal Lighterage Corporation) and insurance brokerage (RFM Insurance Brokers, Inc.), and leasing of commercial / office spaces (Invest Asia Corporation).</div>
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RFM meant "Republic Flour Mills", which was the name of the company during its incorporation. From its original business of flour milling, the Company diversified into poultry and livestock production and areas of food manufacturing that includes flour-based products, margarine, milk & juices, canned and processed meat, ice cream, and bottled mineral water.</div>
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<h3>
Subsidiaries</h3>
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1.) Cabuyao Meat Processing Corporation - produces hotdogs, corned beef, hams, and other meat products under the Swift brand.<br />
2.) Interbake Commissary Corporation - operates a high-speed Bun Production Line. It’s first, and continues to be the biggest customer, is McDonald’s. Interbake supplies the bun<br />
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requirements to McDonald’s over 260 stores in Luzon and now includes other clients such as KFC and Wendy's.</div>
3.) RFM Equities, Inc and Subsidiaries - It was organized in 1996 to hold and manage RFM Corporation’s holdings in two small financial services subsidiaries – Conglomerate Securities and Financing Corporation (CSFC) and RFM Insurance Brokers, Inc. (RIBI).<br />
4.) RFM Foods Philippines Corporation - ceased operations; former joint venture with Indofoods.<br />
5.) Southstar Bottled Water Company, Inc.<br />
6.) Swift Tuna Corporation<br />
7.) Invest Asia Corporation (96%) - owns the RFM head office and land. Leases commercial and office spaces to its affiliates and third party tenants.<br />
8.) FWBC Holdings, Inc and subsidiary (84%) - FWBC is involved in the processing and distribution of bottled mountain spring water.<br />
9.) Rizal Lighterage Corporation (94%) - barging company<br />
10.) RFM Canning and Marketing Corporation (70%)<br />
11.) WS Holdings (60%) - 40% owned by Unilever . Incorporated to invest in, purchase and own shares of stocks, bonds and other securities of obligations including real estate and personal property of any foreign or domestic corporation, or partnership, or association.<br />
12.) Unilever-RFM Ice Cream, Inc (50%) - It is engaged in the business of manufacturing, marketing, distributing and selling, importing and exporting of ice cream and similar food products.<br />
13.) Selecta Wall's Land, Inc (35%) - incorporated in 1999 to acquire, own, use, develop and hold for investment all kinds of real estate.<br />
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Products</h3>
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RFM Corporation operates two major business segments:</div>
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1. Institutional Segment which primarily manufactures and sells flour, pasta, bakery and other bakery<br />
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products to institutional customers (40% of total Sales)</div>
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- Brands: Republic Special, Cinderella, Altar Bread, Milenyo, Hi-Pro Majestic, Señorita</div>
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2. Consumer segment, that manufactures and sells ice cream, meat, milk and juices, pasta products,</div>
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and flour and rice based mixes. (60% of total Sales)</div>
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- Brands: Sunkist juices, Alo Green Tea, Selecta Moo, Selecta Milk, Vitwater, Swift Meat products, Fiesta Spaghetti, White King hotcakes, Fiesta Meaty sauces, etc.</div>
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<a href="http://www.rfmfoods.com/images/stories/brands/rfm-brands.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="56" src="http://www.rfmfoods.com/images/stories/brands/rfm-brands.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
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Key People</h3>
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1.) Jose S. Concepcion, Jr - Chairman of the Board, CEO of RFM Corporation and Swift Foods, Inc. Founding Chairman of NAMFREL. Member of the Board of Philtown Properties, Inc. Former DTI Secretary, Chairman of the Board of Investments, Member of the Central Bank Monetary Board (1986-1991).<br />
2.) Ernest Fritz Server - Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors in RFM. Member of the Board: Philtown Properties, Inc, One Mckinley Place, RFM Equities. President of Philam Fund, Inc. Wharton MBA Graduate.<br />
3.) Jose Ma. A. Concepcion III - President and CEO of the Corporation. Chairman of the Board : Cabuyao Meat Processing Corporation, Interbake Commissary Corporation, RFM Equities, RFM Insurance Brokers, Filipinas Water Bottling Company, Unilever RFM Ice Cream. Vice Chairman of One Mckinley Place.<br />
4.) Romeo L. Bernardo - Independent Director. Chairman of Ayala Life Peso/Dollar/Euro Bond Funds and Philippine Stock Index Fund. Board member of Ayala Plans, Ayala Life, Globe Telecom, Bank of Philippine Islands, PHINMA, Institute of Development and Econometrica Analysis, Aboitiz Corporation, and many more. BS Business Econ grad (mcl) from UP and MA Development Economics (valedictorian) from Williams College (Massachussetts).<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.spot.ph/files/2010/11/1289212939-Jose-Concepcion-Jr..jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://www.spot.ph/files/2010/11/1289212939-Jose-Concepcion-Jr..jpg" width="213" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jose S. Concepcion, Jr. </td></tr>
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<h2>
Quick Numbers</h2>
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (3Q 2012): ~Php5.38B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~3.16B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 1.70</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 28%<br />Beta: .68<br />Cost of Capital: 8.2%<br /><br /><br />Net Income: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 3Q: Php 588M (projected)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2011: Php 508M<br />2010: Php 625M</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2009: Php 365M </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: Php 549M<br /><br /><br />A conservative assumption of long-term growth (3% yearly), would put the fair value of the company (</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">based on earnings - DCF analysis)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> at around:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php5.04 </i></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">As of December 21, 2012, the closing price is at 4.9 which gives us room for about 3% upside towards our conservative target price.</span></div>
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmJX9mY5_lf1AObHG0ZyhIMd565tyvUkzaTN0UpbpnjrdkKzf4ABB8mhSG4uFXVFfEM3PZREbCUhXxCWPhFDdVsoA_d_1TV0Fgm2ansX4P3Sd77uXKmm0QaULymB4T_WEkljJqIqsJDCY/s1600/rfm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmJX9mY5_lf1AObHG0ZyhIMd565tyvUkzaTN0UpbpnjrdkKzf4ABB8mhSG4uFXVFfEM3PZREbCUhXxCWPhFDdVsoA_d_1TV0Fgm2ansX4P3Sd77uXKmm0QaULymB4T_WEkljJqIqsJDCY/s640/rfm.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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I was able to buy RFM last December 11 right before it's run up. Not yet knowing its fundamentals, I bought this stock based on the chart only, and I guess was lucky that I got in with a "barat" bid before prices went up. You can see from the chart that the stock's price has been traded on a range since late August. Bollinger Bands constricted until the candlesticks for 12/7 and 12/10 showed bullishness, breaking out from the band. </div>
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<h2>
Analysis</h2>
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<div>
This is a good case on how Technicals + Fundamentals work hand in hand. I was able to enter the stock basing on its charts (faster to read charts than to scan through financial statements). Fundamental analysis can act as a confirmation for the buy and help to achieve conviction. For stocks having good fundamentals, if ever prices go down, it's ok for me to buy more. <br />
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For RFM, the recent parabolic rise brought the stock straight to my conservative target price. I no longer intend to add up, but will still hold to ride the momentum. Possible sell signal for me would be when prices touch the 20 Moving Average. HOLD.<br />
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References: Financial Statements of RFM (3Q 2012)<br />
Images via Google searchScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-3145114276610340062012-12-01T20:22:00.000+08:002012-12-16T10:46:27.588+08:00Spotlight: Cirtek Holdings Philippines Corporation (CHIPS)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOjpT7BWbUeImj_cuH8MsjmKg2_LX7n6bwTzd3XRwCQdifV_Tk7zumVdiMReb1_JE9ixchKsCKyoCmzJJUUEfOiaVEx0t6irSDO5yXC7K4jeAJgUggyK4VH1n-zLrCwCEvWFByZ4CjeJE/s1600/citrek.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="100" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOjpT7BWbUeImj_cuH8MsjmKg2_LX7n6bwTzd3XRwCQdifV_Tk7zumVdiMReb1_JE9ixchKsCKyoCmzJJUUEfOiaVEx0t6irSDO5yXC7K4jeAJgUggyK4VH1n-zLrCwCEvWFByZ4CjeJE/s320/citrek.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://www.jobstreet.com.ph/logos/agenalogos/century_logo03162010.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /></a></div>
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</h2>
<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
Cirtek Holdings Philippines Corporation is an independent full service solution provider for subcontract manufacturing of semiconductor devices. The company provides turnkey solutions that include package design and development , wafer probing, wafer back grinding, assembly and packaging, final testing of semiconductor devices, and delivery and shipment to its customers' end users. The company is currently located at the Laguna Technopark (Binan, Laguna). <br />
<br />
The Company's 2 main subsidiaries, used to be under the majority ownership of Carmetheus Holdings, Inc and Charmview Holdings, Inc, both of which are owned by the Liu family. After a Deed of Absolute Sale of Shares by the 2 Holdings companies, the Cirtek Holdings became the parent company of CEC and CHI while the holding companies of the Liu family no longer forms part of the company structure, post-reorganization.<br />
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<h3>
Subsidiaries</h3>
</div>
1.) Cirtek Electronics Corporation (CEC) - 100% owned by the Company, primarily to engage as an independent subcontractor for semiconductor assembly, test, and packaging services.<br />
2.) Cirtek Electronics International Corporation (CIEC) - 100% owned by the Company. Primary purpose is to sell integrated circuits principally in the USA and to subcontract the production of the same to CEC.<br />
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<a href="http://www.laidtrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Cirtek-Electronics.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="228" src="http://www.laidtrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Cirtek-Electronics.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<h3 style="text-align: justify;">
Products</h3>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
1. Protection Products - designed to protect electronic devices from damaging voltage or current spikes.<br />
2. Light sensors - optical device that is used on the automatic switching on/off of headlights and the automatic adjustment of airconditioning settings in cars.<br />
3. Real time clock - precision time keeping devices with features like calendars, trickle charger, memory functions, etc.<br />
4. Voltage control oscillators (VCO) - designed to be controlled in oscillation frequency by a DC voltage input.<br />
5. Electronic relays - opto relays that are used in controlling high voltage and high power equipment.<br />
6. Power management devices - used in a wide range of power management applications (telecommunications, portable devices, industrial equipment, etc).<br />
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<h3>
Key People</h3>
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1.) Jerry Liu - Company Chairman and President. He is concurrently President/CEO of CEC, Director of Cirtek Land and Cayon Holdings, Inc. and Chairman of Silicon Link, Inc. Mr. Liu's citizenship is in Taiwan.<br />
2.) Nelia Liu - Director. She is also the Corporate Secretary of CEC, President of Cirtek Land and Cayon Holdings,Inc and treasurer of Camerton, Inc. and Carmetheus. She is also Dept. Chairman of the Dept. of Pathology and Laboratory of the Lung Center of the Philippines, Cardinal Santos Medical Center and Perpetual Help Medical Center, and an associate professor of the UP College of Medicine - Philippine General Hospital. UP College of Medicine batch 1975.<br />
3.) Nicanor Lizares - He is also a director of Pancake House, Inc. Has MS in Industrial Economics and MA International Relations from Boston University.<br />
4.) Anthony Buyawe - Company's Treasurer and CFO. He is concurrently the CFO of CEC, CEIC and the Figaro Coffee Company. A former Sr. Director of Ernst and Young. He obtained his BA degree from UP and his MBA at AIM.<br />
5.) Martin Lorenzo - Independent Director of the Company. He is currently the Chairman and President of Pancake House, Inc.<br />
6.) Ernest Fritz Server - Independent Director. President of Multimedia Telephony, Inc., Vice Chairman of RFM Corporation and a director of Philippine Township, Inc. Former Vice Chairman of Commercial Bank of Manila and Cosmos Bottling Company, and President of Philippin Home Cable Holdings, Inc and Philam Fund.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iTOWXiJBi2c/TuQ8JWuhMiI/AAAAAAAACP4/hSmheWA9PYk/s1600/Cirtek+Holdings.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="228" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iTOWXiJBi2c/TuQ8JWuhMiI/AAAAAAAACP4/hSmheWA9PYk/s320/Cirtek+Holdings.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;">(L-R: PSE President Hans Sicat, Nicanor Lizares, Jerry Liu, VP Binay, PSE Chairman Jose Pardo, CVCLaw Senior Partner Avelino Cruz)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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</div>
<h2>
Quick Numbers</h2>
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span>
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<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (3Q 2012): ~Php1.08B</span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~162.163M</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 6.64</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 28%<br />Beta: 1<br />Cost of Capital: 10.4%<br /><br /><br />Net Income: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 3Q: Php 157M</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2011: Php 163M<br />2010: Php 148M</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2009: Php 40M </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: Php 145M<br /><br /><br />A conservative assumption of long-term growth (3% yearly), would put the fair value of the company (</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">based on earnings - DCF analysis)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> at around:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php20.48 </i></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">As of the end of November 28, 2012, the closing price is at 15.28 which gives us room for about 34% upside towards our conservative target price.</span></div>
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<h3 style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
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This post came in a bit too late as CHIPS prices have started to move up again. After settling at around 12, there came a sudden buying demand pushing the price up to its latest at 15.28. I expect prices would be a bit more volatile this time around since a lot of sellers would start to take profit on higher prices. The latest candle is an inverted hammer, which may signal prices to close lower than the last 2 days.<br />
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<h2>
Analysis</h2>
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<div>
Cirtek Holdings maintain to have stable earnings over the past few years as they were able to acquire service contracts and also attract new investors via its recent IPO and debt offers. Risks associated with the company would be more on industry risk (semiconductor) and on foreign exchange, since profits are based in USD. Market outlook for developed countries (main clients) isn't good; thus, there may be a slowdown of growth in the future.<br />
<br />
I find the prices at around 12 as very attractive; unfortunately, prices already went up beyond that level just recently. As prices are expected to be more volatile this time, it would be best to wait until the stock price stabilizes or reaches low levels again. I would recommend a BUY ON DIPS.<br />
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References: Financial Statements of CHIPS (3Q 2012)<br />
Images via Google searchScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-32031968240567583252012-11-12T00:16:00.004+08:002014-10-06T14:36:26.447+08:00Spotlight: Century Properties Group, Inc (CPG)<br />
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<a href="http://www.jobstreet.com.ph/logos/agenalogos/century_logo03162010.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.jobstreet.com.ph/logos/agenalogos/century_logo03162010.jpg" height="99" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">Latest update related to CPG: </span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">as of October 6, 2014: <a href="http://scion-tradeon.blogspot.com/2014/10/cpgs-800-million-peso-share-buyback.html" target="_blank">CPG's 800 Million Share Buy Back Program</a> </span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">This article was written as of: November 11, 2012: </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://scion-tradeon.blogspot.com/2012/11/spotlight-century-properties-group-inc.html" target="_blank">Spotlight: Century Properties Group, Inc (CPG)</a></span><br />
<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Century Properties Group, Inc is one of the leading real estate companies in the Philippines with over 26 years of experience. It has only recently been made public via the corporate buyout of publicly listed East Asia Power Resources Corporation (PWR), then transferring its asset to it. Through its Subsidiaries, Century develops, markets and sells residential, office, medical and retail properties in the Philippines, as well as manages residential and commercial properties in the Philippines. </div>
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CPGI believes that it has earned a reputation for pioneering new housing concepts in the Philippines. One of Century’s significant contributions is the Fully-Fitted and Fully-Furnished (“FF/FF”) concept, which is now an industry standard in the Philippines. They also employ a branding strategy that focuses on strategic arrangements with key global franchises to help capture and sustain consumers’ awareness. To date, CPGI has entered into agreements with Gianni Versace S.P.A., Donald Trump (through the Trump Organization) , Paris Hilton, and Missoni Homes, among others.</div>
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<h3 style="text-align: justify;">
Subsidiaries</h3>
<div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
1. Century City Development Corporation (100%) - CCDC, incorporated in 2006, is focused on developing mixed-use communities that contain residences, office and retail properties. CCDC is currently developing Century City, a 3.4-hectare mixed-use development along Kalayaan Avenue in Makati City.</div>
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2. Century Limitless Corporation (100%) - CLC, incorporated in 2008, is Century’s newest brand category that focuses on developing high-quality, affordable residential projects. Projects under CLC will cater to first-time home buyers, startup families and investors seeking safe, secure and convenient homes.</div>
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3. Century Communities Corporation (100%) - CCC, incorporated in 1994, is focused on horizontal house and lot developments. From the conceptualization to the sellout of a project, CCC provides experienced specialists who develop and execute the right strategy to successfully market a project. CCC is currently developing Canyon Ranch, a 25-hectare house and lot development located in Carmona, Cavite.</div>
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4. Century Properties Management (80%) - CPMI, incorporated in 1989, is one of the largest property management companies in the Philippines, as measured by total gross floor area under management. CPMI currently has 51 projects in its portfolio, covering a total gross floor area of 2,192,338 million sq.m. CPMI has been awarded 18 safety and security distinctions from the Safety Organization of the Philippines.</div>
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<h3>
Key People</h3>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.canyonranch.com.ph/images/contract_sign.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.canyonranch.com.ph/images/contract_sign.jpg" height="154" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(L-R: Jose Marco Antonio, Jose E.B. Antonio, and John Victor Antonio)</td></tr>
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1.) Jose E.B. Antonio - founder and chairman. Also, current chairman of Century Asia Corporation, Prestige Cars , Inc., and Philtranco Service Enterprises. Father of the Antonio brothers listed below.<br />
2.) John Victor R. Antonio - COO and Managing Director. BS Econ (cl) and MBA from Wharton. Involved in managing projects in the company's middle income and affordable product lines (i.e. Gramercy Residences and Azure Urban Residences).<br />
3.) Jose Marco R. Antonio - COO and Managing Director. BS Econ (scl) and MBA from Wharton. Involved in managing projects in the company's middle income and affordable product lines (i.e. Canyon Ranch, Knightsbridge Residences, and Acqua Private Residences).<br />
4.) Jose Roberto R. Antonio - COO and Managing Director. BS Econ (Northwestern Univ) and MBA (Stanford). Handles the company's luxury product line (i.e. Milano Residences and Trump Tower)<br />
5.) Jose Carlo R. Antonio - CFO. BS Econ (mcl) from Wharton.<br />
6.) Ricardo Cuerva and Rafael Yaptinchay - co-founders of Meridien (developer for early CPI projects).<br />
7.) Washington Sycip - Independent Director. Founder of AIM and SGV.<br />
8.) Monico Jacob - Independent Director. President and CEO of STI Education Services Group, PhilPlans First, Inc., and Philhealth Care Inc.</div>
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<h3>
4 Current Master-planned Communities:</h3>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
1.) Century City - A 3.4-hectare mixed-use project in Makati City with eight buildings (6 plans so far: Gramercy Residences, Knightsbridge Residences, Milano Residences (interior by Versace Home), Centuria Medical Makati, Trump Tower Manila and Lifestyle Center)</div>
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2.) Acqua Private Residences - Located in Mandaluyong City, this development comprises six towers with views of the Makati City skyline and will feature a country club with fitness, retail, dining and entertainment facilities, as well as what we expect to be the first riverwalk promenade in the Philippines.</div>
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3.) Azure Urban Resort Residences - Century’s first property in the affordable market segment, Azure</div>
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Urban Resort Residences is a nine building residential property set on six-hectares in Parañaque City. The development will feature what we expect to be the first man-made beach in an urban residence in Manila and a beach club designed by Paris Hilton.</div>
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4.) Canyon Ranch - A 25-hectare house and lot community that is part of the 77-hectare San Lazaro</div>
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Leisure Park in Cavite City targeted for middle-income buyers. The community features a clubhouse with sports and leisure facilities and offers residents views of the Leisure Park which includes one of only two operating horse racing tracks in the Philippines.</div>
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<h4>
Completed Projects (sample)</h4>
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1. Medical Plaza Makati/Ortigas</div>
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2. Essensa </div>
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3. South of Market</div>
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4. SOHO Central</div>
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5. Grand SOHO Makati</div>
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<h4>
Properties Under Management (sample)</h4>
1. Essensa East Forbes<br />
2. Asian Development Bank<br />
3. BPI Buendia Center<br />
4. One Corporate Center Ortigas<br />
5. PNB Financial Center<br />
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<h3>
Dividend Policy</h3>
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<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
CPGI intends to maintain an annual cash dividend payment ratio for the issued and outstanding common shares of the Company of approximately 10% of its consolidated net income from the preceding fiscal year, subject to the requirements of applicable laws and regulations, availability of unrestricted retained earnings and the absence of circumstances which may restrict the payment of such dividends.</div>
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Quick Numbers</h2>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (AR 2011): ~Php4.33B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~4.01B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 1.08 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 11%<br />Beta: 0.77<br />Cost of Capital: 9.8%<br /><br /><br />Net Income: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2011: Php 864M <br />2010: Php 180M</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2009: Php 696M </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: Php 625M<br /><br /><br />A conservative assumption of long-term growth (3% yearly), would put the fair value of the company (</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">based on earnings - DCF analysis)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> at around:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php2.43 </i></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">As of the end of November 9, 2012, the closing price is at 1.4 which gives us room for about 70% in order to achieve the conservative target price.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
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When CPG took over the dormant PWR, there were lots of speculations over how much the company would be valued. Stock prices skyrocketed up to 5 before it finally settled down to the current range which is already less than 2. I would expect a long overhang on this range unless there would be significant news that could propel demand on this stock. There are a lot of resistances up there that needs to be broken.<br />
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<h3>
Analysis</h3>
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Given that our fundamental analysis show that CPG is undervalued, we might consider starting to accumulate on this stock. The RSI shows a range trade and currently prices seem to be at the bottom unless it breaks. The MACD indicator shows some strength which may signal some bullish divergence on the stock's prices.</div>
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References: Financial Statements of CPG (AR 2011)<br />
www.wikipedia.orgScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-12422726593092973382012-10-07T12:57:00.000+08:002012-10-07T12:57:51.958+08:00Spotlight: The Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. (PSE)<br />
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<a href="http://divineeconomy.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/pse-logo.jpg?w=604" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://divineeconomy.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/pse-logo.jpg?w=604" width="198" /></a></div>
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<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
The national stock exchange of the Philippines; also considered as one of South East Asia's oldest. The current PSE was brought forth from a merger between the Makati Stock Exchange and the Manila Stock Exchange in 1992. In June 1998, the PSE was granted a Self-Regulatory Organization (SRO) status, and was eventually listed to the exchange by way of introduction in 2003.<br />
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<h3>
Subsidiaries</h3>
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1. Securities Clearing Corporation of the Philippines (SCCP) - clearance, settlement and depository agency for SCCP-eligible trades executed through the facilities of the PSE.<br />
2. Capital Markets Integrity Corporation (CMIC) - to implement rules and regulations and provisions of securities laws pertaining to the operations of the trading participants and their dealings with the investing public.<br />
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3. Philippine Dealing System Holdings Corporation (PDSHC) - 20.98% shareholder of the holdings company of PDEX, PDTC, PSSC.</div>
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<h3>
Significant Shareholder/s</h3>
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1.) San Miguel Corporation Retirement Plan - 10.32%<br />
2.) Ansaldo, Apex Phils, BDO Securities, Deutsche Regis, HSBC Securities, etc - 0.33% each.<br />
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<h3>
Key People</h3>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.theasset.com/storage/Image/2012/Apr/1334027280sicat.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.theasset.com/storage/Image/2012/Apr/1334027280sicat.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Hans Sicat, President & CEO</td></tr>
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1.) Jose T. Pardo - PSE Chairman (SCCP) and Independent Director. Former Finance Secretary (2000-2001) and Trade (DTI) Secretary (1998-2000). Other affiliations: JGS Holdings (Ind. Director), National Grid of the Philippines (Director), Bank of Commerce (Director), Philippine Savings Bank (Director).</div>
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2.) Hans B. Sicat - PSE President and CEO. 2 decades of international investment banking experience (Citigroup, Salomon Smith Barney).</div>
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3.) Emmanuel Bautista - Director. Current Chairman and CEO of Deutsche Regis Partners, Inc.</div>
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4.) Annabelle Lim-Chua - Director. CFO of Smart Communications; Treasurer and SVP of PLDT.</div>
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5.) Robert Vergara - Director. President and General Manager of GSIS.</div>
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6.) Vivian Yuchengco - Director. Former PSE Chairperson (2002-2003).</div>
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<h3>
Dividend Policy</h3>
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The company adopts a policy for the declaration of regular cash dividend out of the unrestricted retained earnings equivalent to 50% of the company's audited net income. (Subject to cash flow and financial condition of the company)<br />
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<h2>
Quick Numbers</h2>
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
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<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (1H 2012): ~Php1.95B</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~61.2M</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 31.80</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 0%<br />Beta: 0.68<br />Cost of Capital: 9.6%<br /><br /><br />Net Income: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 (1H): Php 432.5M (annualized) <br />2011: Php 360.4M <br />2010: Php 377M </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: 399.8M<br /><br /><br />A conservative assumption of long-term growth (3% yearly), would put the fair value of the company (</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">based on earnings - DCF analysis)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> at around:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php112.52 (conservative)</i></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">As of the end of September 2012, last price is at 375 which is already more than double the above mentioned fair value. Even if we increase the long term growth up to 7%, fair value would reach only 300/ share.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
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There is nothing much interesting going on here as consolidation continues after the big drop in the first quarter of the year.<br />
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<h2>
Analysis</h2>
<div>
Growth areas for the company would be: local investor participation (currently, there are more or less 1% of Filipinos who invest on stocks); New product offerings (online trading platform, Direct Market Access, ETFs, REIT, etc); increase public listing of companies; integration of ASEAN markets / cross-border trading. Initial computations show that the stock is currently overbought and the charts do not show much trend yet. Personally, I wouldn't look buying into this stock at current levels.</div>
<br />
References: Financial Statements of PSE (1H 2012 & AR 2011)<br />
www.wikipedia.orgScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-6367673965933635552012-09-16T14:38:00.001+08:002012-09-16T14:38:59.846+08:00Spotlight: Waterfront Philippines, Inc (WPI)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.cebu-philippines.net/images/waterfront-hotels.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="149" src="http://www.cebu-philippines.net/images/waterfront-hotels.png" width="200" /></a></div>
<h2>
</h2>
<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
Waterfront Philippines, Inc is an investment holding company which focuses into hotel, leisure, and tourism businesses. WPI is now also known as the largest Filipino hotel chain in the country. Hotel properties are mainly located in the three central business districts: Manila, Cebu and Davao. WPI has a Central Reservations System, which makes it the only integrated network of hotels in the country.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://www.waterfronthotels.com.ph/cebu/images/penthouse_suite01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="176" src="http://www.waterfronthotels.com.ph/cebu/images/penthouse_suite01.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;">Penthouse Suite at Waterfront Cebu</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3>
Subsidiaries</h3>
<div>
1. Waterfront Cebu City Casino Hotel, Inc. (WCCCHI) - has an entertainment block, hotel block and a convention center.<br />
<div class="p1">
2. Waterfront Mactan Casino Hotel, Inc. (WMCHI) - located right across Mactan-Cebu International airport. Possible phase II development in the future. Cebu City is the only South East Asian city that offers casino facilities to transients while waiting for their flights.</div>
<div class="p1">
3. Waterfront Insular Hotel Davao, Inc. (98%)</div>
<div class="p1">
4. Waterfront Promotions Limited -marketing arm for international marketing and promotions </div>
<div class="p1">
5. Waterfront Entertainment Corporation - country's first ever integrated hotel reservations and booking system.</div>
<div class="p1">
6. Mayo Bonanza, Inc. - operation and management of amusement, entertainment and recreation businesses.</div>
<div class="p1">
7. Grand Ilocandia Resort Development Incorporated (54%) - for disposal</div>
<div class="p1">
8. ACESITE (Phils.) Hotel Corporation (59%)- principal property is the Manila Pavilion Hotel, which houses Casino Filipino (owned and operated by PAGCOR); publicly listed (ACE)</div>
<div class="p1">
9. Waterfront Food Concepts, Inc. - pastry business catering to member hotels and other coffee businesses.</div>
<div class="p1">
10. Waterfront Management Corporation - G-Hotel Manila, located at Roxas Blvd, Malate, Manila</div>
<div class="p1">
11. W Citigyms and Wellness, Inc. - gym subsidiary currently available at WCCCHI. Possible opening of gyms in other member hotels.</div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<h3>
Significant Shareholder/s</h3>
<div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://pcij.org/imag/SpecialReport/gatchalian.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://pcij.org/imag/SpecialReport/gatchalian.gif" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">William Gatchalian</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
1.) The Wellex Group, Inc (45.757%) - Publicly listed holdings company (WIN) which is owned and managed by the Gatchalians. The family is known for the "Plastic City" and being a political dynasty in Valenzuela City. Other known subsidiaries are: PHES, FPI and ACE.<br />
2.) Kenneth Gatchalian - He is the company president and sits on the board along with his mother (Dee Hua Gatchalian) and aunt (Elvira Ting). He is the 2nd (out of 4) son of "Plastic King", William Gatchalian.</div>
</div>
<div>
<h3>
Outstanding Debts</h3>
<div>
The company has a history of defaulting on its debts. Until now, loans under SSS and ICBC amounting to around Php400M each are still being negotiated for re-scheduling. These loans are placed on the current liabilities part of the company's balance sheets.</div>
<br /></div>
<h2>
Quick Numbers</h2>
<div>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span>
<br />
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (1H 2012): ~Php3.86B</span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~2.5B</span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 1.55</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 23%<br />Beta: 0.6<br />Cost of Capital: 8.9%<br /><br /><br />Net Income: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 (1H): Php 45M (Other expenses which get reflected at the end of the year may reduce this further) <br />2011: Php -2.4M <br />2010: Php -52M <br />2009: Php -167M </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: -9.6M<br /><br /><br />Assuming conservative long-term growth (3% yearly), fair value for the company based on earnings (DCF analysis) would be around:<br /><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php1.8</i></b></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>Although Average Net Income of the company has been in the negative, cash flows are still actually positive when we add back the amount reserved for Depreciation costs. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Latest price as of 9/14/2012 is 0.45. This gives us around 300% upside assuming market price approaches fair value.</span></div>
</div>
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=================</div>
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<br /></div>
<h3 style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPwUaX0dxUnrOUhd8uiKPALcWuaRRLCCwoJnPqElFX6kvnb37_P6lfoaf4AiA5VDdhILeCYtCUBNpKraqigtRoOL3NDtZBKNXdcVpQshz21TRIK0SIr8Hgjj2a6Aab-6qln0WwOqU5wE8/s1600/2012Sep-Waterfront+Philippines+Inc.-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPwUaX0dxUnrOUhd8uiKPALcWuaRRLCCwoJnPqElFX6kvnb37_P6lfoaf4AiA5VDdhILeCYtCUBNpKraqigtRoOL3NDtZBKNXdcVpQshz21TRIK0SIr8Hgjj2a6Aab-6qln0WwOqU5wE8/s640/2012Sep-Waterfront+Philippines+Inc.-800x600.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The 1 year historical chart shows the important resistances once the stock's prices would break its current trading range [ 0.43 - .475 ]. The short term moving average, 20MA, has now started to be more bullish over the long term MAs. However, lagging indicators still show weak momentum. </div>
<br />
<br />
<h2>
Analysis</h2>
<div>
WPI has been one of those undervalued companies in terms of its book value and earnings growth potential. However, there is some sort of reputation among "Gatchi stocks" that veer away investors. The company shows conservative growth in earnings; however, it still is crawling with its past debts. This remains to be a sleeper stock waiting to be awakened by rather more interesting news. This is good for RANGE TRADING, for now.</div>
<br />
<br />
References: Financial Statements of WPI (2Q 2012 & AR 2011)<br />
www.wellex.com.phScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-75760985454594966952012-09-02T13:43:00.002+08:002012-09-02T13:47:17.899+08:00Spotlight: Paxys, Inc (PAX)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.paxys.com/img/logo/paxys_logo.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.paxys.com/img/logo/paxys_logo.gif" /></a></div>
<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
Paxys was originally into ceramics manufacturing way back in the 50s (Fil-Hispano Holdings, Inc) before closing down its operations in the early 2000s. The company now focuses into investments in the Business Outsourcing Industry (BPO) industry with diversified services such as contact centers, data conversion, salary packaging and software solutions.<br />
<br />
Paxys is the first call center firm listed in the PSE after a reverse takeover by Advanced Contact Solutions, Inc (ACS), injecting 100% of the business into PAX in 2004. However, on January 2011, PAX sold ACS to Alorica International, Inc. The Salary Packaging business is also being divested.<br />
<br />
Major stockholder of this firm at 73.23% stake is All Asia Customer Service Holdings Ltd, a company incorporated in Hong Kong.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Business Segments</h3>
1.) Call Center - inbound and outbound teleservicing including email and web-based tools.<br />
2.) Salary Packaging - services that effectively structure employee income through a combination of cash and approved benefits. Implementation of a well-aligned salary packaging policy and delivery of a comprehensive tax management reporting suite.<br />
<div>
3.) Data Transcription - data transcription and scoping services, voice-to-screen message conversion and electronic data encoding and processing.</div>
<div>
4.) Others - software development and IT consultancy; Parent company operations </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Significant Subsidiaries</h3>
<div>
1.) Advanced Contact Solutions, Inc (ACS) - divested and sold to Alorica International</div>
<div>
2.) SmartSalary Pty Ltd - indirectly owned through Paxys A.U., which is currently classified as disposal group held for sale.</div>
<div>
3.) Scopeworks Asia, Inc (SWA) - Data transcription</div>
<div>
4.) Paxys Global Services (PGA) - Headquarters based in the Philippines</div>
<div>
5.) Ubaldo Reidenbach Solutions, Inc (URSI)- (63.5% stake) IT, software development, licensing and consultancy</div>
<div>
6.) Stellar Global Solutions Philippines, Inc - Joint Venture (50%) ; call center </div>
<div>
7.) ACS Dalian - Joint Venture (50%); call center; declared as property dividend to Parent company</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Based on the Business Segment Information from AR2011, net income losses are incurred through ACS while the Salary Packaging segment (SmartSalary) has been an income earner. So, it turns out that PAX divests from the losing business and wants to veer away from Australia. Remaining external revenue would come from China through ACS Dalian.</div>
<div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.interaksyon.com/assets/images/articles/interphoto_1331125388.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="196" src="http://www.interaksyon.com/assets/images/articles/interphoto_1331125388.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<h2>
Quick Numbers</h2>
<div>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span>
<br />
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (1H 2012): ~Php4.35B</span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~1.15B</span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 3.78</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 0%<br />Beta: 0.74<br />Cost of Capital: 9.9%<br /><br /><br />Net Income: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 (1H): Php 25.65M (excluding non-recurring income from sale of subsidiaries) <br />2011: Php 124.04M <br />2010: Php -270.88M <br />2009: Php 236.882M </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;">time-weighted average NI: 16.98M <br /><br /><br />Assuming conservative long-term growth (3% yearly), fair value for the company based on earnings (DCF analysis) would be around:<br /><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php5.42</i> </b></span></span></div>
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<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;">Book value of equity per share is also attractive as it went up coming from just around 2/share in previous years; this is due to the sale of subsidiaries.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Latest price as of 8/31/2012 is 2.85 which gives us around 90% upside to <i>conservative </i>fair value of 5.42. </span><span style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Although the numbers look very good, the question now would be, where will all the proceeds of the Sale go? PAX business strategy remains to be unclear for now. We are still waiting for the minutes of the ASM; however, recent stock prices show a negative reaction. </span></span></div>
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=================</div>
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<br /></div>
<h3 style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Technicals</span></h3>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSezoOdgldzPXnZqLdV2tQmKHB74IPxnm5MzB9nKLskH2iUW4-_EkCaljfqzOWGkFoA5mpkL-jpbLrGRfVt5uUx_JVXTYwW7LDoDEAKUry2ofMe5ANzT6OXMoWDgkV1GgT2RwG5VloFs4/s1600/2012Aug-Paxys,+Inc.-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSezoOdgldzPXnZqLdV2tQmKHB74IPxnm5MzB9nKLskH2iUW4-_EkCaljfqzOWGkFoA5mpkL-jpbLrGRfVt5uUx_JVXTYwW7LDoDEAKUry2ofMe5ANzT6OXMoWDgkV1GgT2RwG5VloFs4/s640/2012Aug-Paxys,+Inc.-800x600.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Something in the ASM must have turned off shareholders last August 31. As seen on the chart, there has been a selldown right on the day of ASM, breaking the lower Bollinger band with considerable volume. MACD chart does not help at all with the breaking of the Zero line. Stock's price would range trade at best for now, from 2.73 to 3.3.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Analysis</h2>
<div>
PAX may seem to be undervalued today; however, future prospects are still vague. At least for now, all debts have been paid and there have been reported <a href="http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/265817/economy/companies/phls-paxys-canadas-simpro-form-new-bpo-company">new JVs to be formed</a>. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It may not still be a good time to enter as shown in the charts. I currently hold PAX in my portfolio and I plan to average down when the prices are stable. For now, I would say this is a BUY ON DIPS. </div>
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<br />
References: Financial Statements of PAX (2Q 2012, AR 2011, 3Q 2011)<br />
www.pse.com.phScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-77473035035363463562012-08-27T16:13:00.002+08:002012-08-27T16:25:42.910+08:00Spotlight: Southeast Asia Cement Holdings, Inc (CMT)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj0PIaymyNE0k1gV2_qGYhiWSx2BDaXjcQeMnZuMUDk1SHRRHoGpymKunRIL7ogu-_dl9V2S3SLsNrxmOQERtZ06JhTuImGC5MtTAj5tGgYl_vxgS95f3YFE5TEQ_3HDphPHJFMM-SlDQ/s1600/co_CMT_logo.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj0PIaymyNE0k1gV2_qGYhiWSx2BDaXjcQeMnZuMUDk1SHRRHoGpymKunRIL7ogu-_dl9V2S3SLsNrxmOQERtZ06JhTuImGC5MtTAj5tGgYl_vxgS95f3YFE5TEQ_3HDphPHJFMM-SlDQ/s320/co_CMT_logo.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
<span style="background-color: white;">SeaCem (CMT) is a holdings company which is primarily invested in 26.59% of Republic Cement Corporation. CMT have merged its previous subsidiaries into one, Seacem Silos , Inc (SSI); however, it has no commercial operations for now.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>
<b style="background-color: white;">Significant Holders:</b><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">1.) Calumboyan Holdings, Inc - 53.01%</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">2.) Lafarge Holdings (Philippines), Inc - 29.07%</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;">The company's earnings rely mainly on Republic Cement. Other income comes from interest income on banks and money market placements.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Quick Numbers</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span>
<br />
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Book Value of Equity (AR 2011): ~Php6.8B</span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Outstanding Shares: ~6.45B</span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>BV/share: Php 1.06</b><br /><br /><br />Debt Ratio (Long term): 0%<br />Beta: 0.95<br />Cost of Capital: 11.1%<br /><br /><br />Net Income: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2012 (1H): Php 415M <br />2011: Php 669M <br />2010: Php 1.114B <br />2009: Php 1.028B <br /><br /><br />Assuming conservative long-term growth (3% yearly), fair value for the company based on earnings (DCF analysis) would be around:<br /><br /><b><i>Fair Value/share: Php1.70</i> </b><i>(conservative)</i></span></div>
</div>
<div style="color: #333333; line-height: 22.866666793823242px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />Since current price (2.37 as of 8/24/12) is already way beyond our conservative fair value, the next target would be</span><b style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> Php 2.78/share, </b><span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">assuming 6% LT growth, which is double our conservative assumption</span><b style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">. </b><span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">If the moderate assumption is correct, there would still be around 17% upside for this stock.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b>Technicals</b></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpFVDq3Cdj_dWQty7k2ibPYltQuEbgaiQRK14yDUAYjeEB9QXvR0y0Elcs7svoa_Qt4GyJAVY_-Z8oQkQ_1dedd2LKUC0inapmIk6GWJQnRidJtqvKYpQ3XX6CgvEQJmiLwMzsixIffo0/s1600/2012Aug-Southeast+Asia+Cement+Holdings+Inc.-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpFVDq3Cdj_dWQty7k2ibPYltQuEbgaiQRK14yDUAYjeEB9QXvR0y0Elcs7svoa_Qt4GyJAVY_-Z8oQkQ_1dedd2LKUC0inapmIk6GWJQnRidJtqvKYpQ3XX6CgvEQJmiLwMzsixIffo0/s640/2012Aug-Southeast+Asia+Cement+Holdings+Inc.-800x600.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The prices form a bullish flag or pennant which gives us a possible target price of 3.1. Chart indicators show that CMT maintains a strong positive momentum.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
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<h2>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Analysis</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The company's lackluster income for last year was due to the minimal government spending for infrastructure projects. Main driver for CMT's growth this year would be the PPP projects for which the Aquino administration had promised to deliver. Increased spending may also be fueled by the fact that 2013 will be another election year.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Technicals show that the stock's prices are in a favorable positive momentum; however, the earlier valuation may indicate that the stock is already fairly valued. CMT is in my portfolio but I am no longer looking into buying more. I will just wait for sell signals; then, that would be the time I would take profit. It's a HOLD for me.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Reference: CMT Financial Reports (2011 and 1H 2012)</span></div>
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ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-12915497087523276262012-07-22T18:13:00.004+08:002012-07-22T18:18:17.361+08:00June - July 2012<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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This may serve as my June and July update since I have been busy at work lately and I don't think I can religiously update this blog regularly (at least bi-monthly). It is unfortunate that I got busy the same time when the market has corrected, and that I can no longer keep up with the daily monitoring that I got used to for the last 2 years.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: white;">ScIoN Fund </span></span></b><span style="background-color: white;">(mid-long term)</span></span></h3>
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<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, serif; line-height: 22px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-size: small;">YTD: </span><b style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #274e13;">+4.28%</span></b></div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-size: small;">Benchmark: <b><span style="color: #990000;">+18.5%</span></b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYxdpWljaj4FQk1NnonTwT1EQZe2LfAgDLoMqkbUbbzrisgeBZzVjQAO0XaphwVm1kCsT79rcNy9XaG0OLob69hM3OWoRYE_u_St33A4T1CgdWCr6sbqnM019RcRvE3QutTsM1D5oJ6oA/s1600/Screen+shot+2012-07-22+at+5.03.40+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYxdpWljaj4FQk1NnonTwT1EQZe2LfAgDLoMqkbUbbzrisgeBZzVjQAO0XaphwVm1kCsT79rcNy9XaG0OLob69hM3OWoRYE_u_St33A4T1CgdWCr6sbqnM019RcRvE3QutTsM1D5oJ6oA/s400/Screen+shot+2012-07-22+at+5.03.40+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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The start of the year was great since I was able to outperform the index; however, during the correction last May, I realized that my stops were too low (100 MA) as my paper profits went back to almost zero. PSE market is still quite shaky these days as I am trying to re-enter. My portfolio above shows a lot of entries because most of them are test buys. Only FGEN and CMT seem to show a continuity on its uptrend. <br />
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Currently, my portfolio is clearly underperforming; I hope, I can manage to steer it back to beat the benchmark. Still, the good thing is it is still on the positive.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: white;">AJC Fund </span></span></b><i style="background-color: white;">(short term fund)</i></span></h3>
</div>
<div style="font-family: Arial, serif; line-height: 22px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-size: small;"><span style="color: #333333;">YTD (3 months): </span><span style="color: #990000;"><b>-2.59%</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-size: small;"><span style="color: #333333;">Benchmark: </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">-0.70%</span></b></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-size: small;"><span style="color: #274e13;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXOfgJOZjexQPShAI4yiUSkC3Dqob6HaWhyphenhyphenyULSO3mxj_5E4sVorM9fUcA5VJVRdqa6DvrpS2vzF_Mop6Pl7cmLvWuPnfa16f8ebxZlG4bOiNmtiMqyu-Y8V3aXU1Sf0D59OdRs62fSSo/s1600/Screen+shot+2012-07-22+at+5.46.35+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXOfgJOZjexQPShAI4yiUSkC3Dqob6HaWhyphenhyphenyULSO3mxj_5E4sVorM9fUcA5VJVRdqa6DvrpS2vzF_Mop6Pl7cmLvWuPnfa16f8ebxZlG4bOiNmtiMqyu-Y8V3aXU1Sf0D59OdRs62fSSo/s320/Screen+shot+2012-07-22+at+5.46.35+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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AJC Fund is still on the negative although the gap from the benchmark is closer (< 3%) now than what was last reported (~ 5%). Both portfolios suffered from the inclusion of Lepanto which backfired when the Mining EO signed by PNoy still gave uncertainty to the mining sector. </div>
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<h3>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">PSE Index Weekly</span></b></h3>
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Looking at the PSEi weekly chart, seems like it is on a positive channel uptrend. However, note the divergence as revealed in the MACD. This may indicate that the uptrend is not sustainable; we can expect further consolidation in the future. Seems like our market will trade at a range for the meantime. Next month would be the so-called ghost month, so it is possible that we may experience further selldowns. Might be best to stay at the sidelines for now.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCj_eWqGLfVgfnt01MECV9VQ9Kw4pInzEkSsGB4SPrAPLLYWac13EIXoGaI3bxFtnfUnVEPAPyL9Ip-T4h8mJfcyC5CtwbnF8Qb2BvGfLLcy2OZO8vXGVOk0kGzT-IflCvsw6_D9Scw_g/s1600/2012Jul-PSEi+Index-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCj_eWqGLfVgfnt01MECV9VQ9Kw4pInzEkSsGB4SPrAPLLYWac13EIXoGaI3bxFtnfUnVEPAPyL9Ip-T4h8mJfcyC5CtwbnF8Qb2BvGfLLcy2OZO8vXGVOk0kGzT-IflCvsw6_D9Scw_g/s640/2012Jul-PSEi+Index-800x600.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-29607894982972292462012-05-06T21:52:00.000+08:002012-05-06T22:34:40.919+08:00Spotlight: GMA Network Inc (GMA7)<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
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<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/tl/f/f1/Gma_network_logo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="148" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/tl/f/f1/Gma_network_logo.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Business Overview:</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">GMA Network, Inc. is a free-to-air broadcasting company principally engaged in television and radio broadcasting, the production of programs for domestic and international audiences, and other related businesses. The Company derives the majority of its revenues from advertising related to television broadcasting.</span></div>
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<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">In 2011, GMA Network, Inc. grabbed and maintained leadership in nationwide TV ratings. GMA Network garnered a nationwide average household audience share of 34.2%, up by 3.1 percentage points over its nearest competitor. GMA likewise maintained its TV ratings dominance in its traditional bailiwick areas of Mega Manila and Urban Luzon in 2011. The Network, its programs and personalities also reaped various local and international awards within the year. <span style="font-size: xx-small;">(source: AR2011)</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
Some notable subsidiaries:</span></h4>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">GMA News Media, Inc (100%) - Converging Technology</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Citynet Network Marketing and Productions, Inc (100%) - Television entertainment production</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">GMA Network Films (100%) - Film production (i.e. Temptation Island, The Road, Panday 2, etc.)</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">GMA Records (100%) - Music recording, publishing and video distribution</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
Affiliates</span></h4>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">INQ7 Interactive, Inc (50%) - partnership with Inquirer. INQ7 ceased operations in 2007. </span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Philippine Entertainment Portal, Inc (PEP) (50%) - www.pep.ph , indirect ownership via GNMI.</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">X-Play Online Games, Inc (50%) - partnership between IPVG and GMA News Media for online gaming business. **Asset Held for a sale</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Mont-Aire Realty and Development Corp. (49%) - Real Estate holding company **subject to sale</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
Cash Dividend Policy: </span></h4>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Minimum 50% of prior year's net income (subject to approval of the Board, in consideration of factors in the implementation of business plans).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Net income attributable to Preferred shareholders is 30% of prior year's net income. (historical) Participating preferred gets 1/5 of the dividend paid to common shareholders. Convertible to common with a 5:1 ratio.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
Top 3 major individual stockholders </span></h4>
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<div style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0.4em;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">In the 1974, when former President <a href="http://en.wikipilipinas.org/index.php?title=Ferdinand_Marcos" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-image: none; background-origin: initial; color: #5a3696; text-decoration: none;" title="Ferdinand Marcos">Ferdinand Marcos</a> declared Martial Law and banned foreigners from owning media outlets, Stewart and the American Broadcasting Company were forced to cede their shares to the triumvirate of Gilberto Duavit, Sr., Menardo Jimenez and Felipe Gozon. <span style="font-size: xx-small;">(source: wikipilipinas)</span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0.4em;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">1.) Felipe Gozon - Chairman and CEO since 2000</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">2.) Gilberto Duavit Jr. - President and COO</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">3.) Menardo Jimenez - former President and CEO of GMA7 until giving up the position to his brother-in-law, Felipe Gozon in 2000. A director of Unicapital, Inc, among all other businesses.</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3FgcH8jJI0PkYFsN4tDXv6_ALXOw69ZFeBRtzbCkOeTZjPkgJVqzR4Kiik1FmsvUfnUWNTNrV8ezzdNeEDa8tS-3KRlnFOdcHYeMTN9PUpfD1GzyZZ_unG1vgXZtjxKGIvADGRn6Kuo0/s1600/2dikao1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3FgcH8jJI0PkYFsN4tDXv6_ALXOw69ZFeBRtzbCkOeTZjPkgJVqzR4Kiik1FmsvUfnUWNTNrV8ezzdNeEDa8tS-3KRlnFOdcHYeMTN9PUpfD1GzyZZ_unG1vgXZtjxKGIvADGRn6Kuo0/s1600/2dikao1.jpg" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">(L-R: Felipe Gozon, Gilberto Duavit Jr)</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Quick Numbers:</span></h2>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Book Value of Equity (AR 2011): ~Php9.8B</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Outstanding Shares: ~3.36B</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Preferred Shares: 7.5B</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">BV/share: Php 2.92</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Debt Ratio (Long term): 0%</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Beta: 0.71</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Cost of Capital: 9.7%</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Net Income: Dividends:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">2011: Php1.72B 2.19B</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">2010: Php 2.82B 3.4B</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">2009: Php 2.82B 1.69B</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Assuming conservative growth, fair value for the company based on earnings (DCF analysis) would be around:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Fair Value/share: Php12.68</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">As of 5/4/12, GMA7 closed at 10.06. Rumors has it that Manny Pangilinan is interested to buy GMA7, to add on his media war chest. Considering our estimated fair value of 12.68, we still have a potential upside of +26%. </span><br />
<h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
Risk of Dilution</span></h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Due to recent news on MVP's interest on GMA7, there is a risk of dilution when all preferred shares are to be converted into common shares, further diluting ownership on the firm. 7.5B preferred shares translates to 1.5B common shares. With this assumption, fair value may go down to just 8.77 per share.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Another point of concern is the issuance of dividends which have been greater than net income.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">===========================</span><br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Technicals:</span></h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoEwiuoLqQJNbYtQUtfVOPPy_IGeTt55tS9IRwcXV2LtfUSdUiq2Lu6Tm0Z0RY9cnVsKKWWLNhryLepAFcUcA_eYtqsm8Wod0Dc6_IG4R3HZF9L7NIlVZax-9T6yJCHAkdyz6YC0ZaIWE/s1600/2012May-GMA+Network+Inc-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoEwiuoLqQJNbYtQUtfVOPPy_IGeTt55tS9IRwcXV2LtfUSdUiq2Lu6Tm0Z0RY9cnVsKKWWLNhryLepAFcUcA_eYtqsm8Wod0Dc6_IG4R3HZF9L7NIlVZax-9T6yJCHAkdyz6YC0ZaIWE/s640/2012May-GMA+Network+Inc-800x600.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">After a very long consolidation, trading on a tight range for more than 3 years, GMA7 picked up investors' interest at the start of the year, probably on rumors of a buyout from MVP. Major resistance can be seen at 10 as prices corrected back down on April. News on the talks gave rise to the stock at the end of the month, making a bullish move which led to a piercing of the resistance line.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">A zero cross on the MACD chart supported by more than the average trading volume tells us that the uptrend may still continue further. Perhaps further consolidation may be observed, which can be supported at the 10.0 line.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">PD: I have positioned myself, buying shares at 10. Given a favorable valuation based on its earnings, this can be a conviction buy for me. However, there may still be risks involved such as a possible private placement by MVP, or a dilution of shares when all preferred shares would be converted into commons (~1.5B new common shares).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">-------</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">This post does not give a comprehensive analysis on the company/industry. This is only a summary or a company snapshot as of the date it was posted. Spotlight stocks featured in this blog are being chosen arbitrarily, and are only intended for the blog owner's personal consumption; not as a form of solicitation to buy or to sell. Comments from readers who would like to point out errors, to share ideas, etc are most welcome. </span></div>ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-56415049735809104812012-05-01T13:48:00.000+08:002012-05-01T13:53:30.395+08:00April 2012<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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<div style="text-align: -webkit-auto;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">ScIoN Fund </span>(mid-long term)</b></span></span></div>
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<div style="text-align: -webkit-auto;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">YTD: <b><span style="color: #274e13;">+21.43%</span></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">Benchmark: <b><span style="color: #990000;">+18.3%</span></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;"><b><span style="color: #990000;"><br /></span></b></span></span></div>
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Much of this month's gains came from the liquidation of TA upon touching the 200MA @1.21. TA remains to be an undervalued stock; however, there is still the SRO overhang which discourages some investors to go in, at least until ex-date. We remain bullish with MARC for its Nickel trades; especially since Indonesia has started banning their Nickel exports. </div>
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BDO has also been let go after its SRO announcement. Prices plummeted the day after the announcement, as stockholders would need to lighten their BDO shares if they still want to maintain the same exposure.<br />
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FDC enjoyed some push coming from its subsidiary's IPO (East West Bank). The stock's price went up as high as 5.19, or +10.66% from last month's close. We shall wait for further price action when EWB would finally go public this May after being oversubscribed 3x.<br />
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PAX is a bit of a disappointment since we are having paper losses from this stock. Hopefully prices would pick up once again this May after waiting for disclosures regarding the supposed huge cash it got from selling of a subsidiary.</div>
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We now maintain cash close to 40% of the total portfolio. It's summer season once again, and some believe in "Sell in May and go away". Perhaps traders go into a vacation, leaving behind a low volume market susceptible to volatile prices with a selling bias. It's high time for early leaders to take a breather; thus, an opportunity for a buy when prices dip.</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;"><b><span style="color: #073763;">AJC Fund </span><i>(short term fund)</i></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">YTD (3 months): +<b><span style="color: #990000;">0.24%</span></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">Benchmark: <span style="color: #274e13;"><b>+5.64%</b></span></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLQH0p9kDwQAlrK17D0AwJkANDGiyeOeO7jv0r24vBOGPBgCQjP37lNW44cbR173IuLPxI45K1531txbvyioiDkY60PuglPhCN_23YLBLV5KFh9HzduLUvLw-bWe5lzrXaNiLCbCiAouk/s1600/Screen+shot+2012-04-30+at+11.07.20+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLQH0p9kDwQAlrK17D0AwJkANDGiyeOeO7jv0r24vBOGPBgCQjP37lNW44cbR173IuLPxI45K1531txbvyioiDkY60PuglPhCN_23YLBLV5KFh9HzduLUvLw-bWe5lzrXaNiLCbCiAouk/s400/Screen+shot+2012-04-30+at+11.07.20+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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This fund is still lagging behind since MPI (benchmark stock) continued its strong push. Out of all the trades this month, only FDC provided a respectable gain, enough to offset some losses. Largest allocation goes to PAX; however, the stock underperformed this month. Its fundamentals remain to be strong, but has weak positive momentum. Hopefully, the other stocks would compensate and help push next month's trading gains.ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-22498869152587801632012-04-29T22:59:00.000+08:002012-05-02T01:19:07.904+08:00Spotlight: Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corporation (AT)<h2>
Business Overview</h2>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR55j3F5k_M0q0ycnOamQAuT9DqJJk8CgxmSAIFDjZZ6Mf9O4WDuvhbyAr7qt2NZk7Ngh6Vud1sxvPaEZsnlYjj3LvIveNuTxfW5Z_B9_6Qx6aWMRvbjg__IoZVRoZ_bTRrn1Ff3qG4orD/s400/atlas-consolidated-mandd-companynews.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR55j3F5k_M0q0ycnOamQAuT9DqJJk8CgxmSAIFDjZZ6Mf9O4WDuvhbyAr7qt2NZk7Ngh6Vud1sxvPaEZsnlYjj3LvIveNuTxfW5Z_B9_6Qx6aWMRvbjg__IoZVRoZ_bTRrn1Ff3qG4orD/s320/atlas-consolidated-mandd-companynews.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Atlas Mining came from a merger between three pre-war mining firms (Masbate Consolidated, Antamok Goldfields and IXL). A major restructuring of the Company's assets was undertaken in years 2004 and 2005 with the creation of 3 special purpose subsidiaries to develop the Toledo Copper Complex, Berong Nickel Project and the Toledo-Cebu Bulk Water and Reservoir Project. As a result, Carmen Copper Corporation (CCC), Berong Nickel Corporation (BNC) and AquAtlas Inc (AI) were incorporated and, subsequently, were positioned to attract project financing as well as specialist management and operating expertise. <span style="font-family: inherit;">In addition, Atlas Exploration, Inc to host, explore, and develop more minerals, including but not limited to copper, gold and nickel. <span style="font-size: xx-small;">(source: Annual Report 2011)</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Since most projects are being done through joint ventures and project financing, Carmen Copper, (which is now 100% owned by Atlas) is being considered as the lone significant subsidiary of the company.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Atlas Exploration Inc (100%) - searching, prospecting, exploring, and locating ores and other mineral resources</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AquAtlas, Inc (100%) - provision and supply of bulk water to local water districts and other customers. i.e. Toledo-Cebu Bulk Water and Reservoir Project.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Amosite Holdings, Inc (100%) - holds assets for investment purposes</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Carmen Copper Corporation (100%) - country's largest exporter of copper concentrate</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Ulugan Resources Holding, Inc (70%) - URHI owns 60% of Nickeline Resources Holdings, Inc. While NRHI owns 60% of Berong Nickel Corporation.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Significant stakeholders:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">1.) Alakor Corporation (20%) - represented by Alfredo Ramos </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">2.) SM Investments Corporation (18%) </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">3.) BDO - credit line facility of 129M. BDO also currently holds convertible debt instruments.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">4.) Consunji Group - Just recently (April 2012), the group bought a 5.3% stake on AT, further expanding their business portfolio with mining.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Significant personalities:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">1.) Alfredo C. Ramos - President and Chairman of AT since 2003. Other companies he manages:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Carmen Copper, Berong Nickel, Alakor Corporation, National Bookstore, Anglo Philippine Holdings, Philodrill Corporation (OV), Vulcan Industrial (VUL), and United Paragon Mining (UPM).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">2.) Hans Sy - Vice chairman of AT. Director of SM Prime Holdings (SMPH), China bank (CHIB), Highlands Prime (HP), etc.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">3.) Jose Sio - EVP and CFO of SM group. Director of AT, Belle Corporation, China Bank, Manila North Tollways, among others.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">4.) Walter Wassmer - Director of AT since 2010. SVP of BDO and Director of BDO Leasing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Quick Numbers:</span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Fundamentals</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Book Value of Equity (AR 2011): ~Php26B</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Outstanding Shares: ~ 1.76B</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>BV/share: Php14.85</b></span></div>
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Debt Ratio: 18%</div>
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Beta: 1.21</div>
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Cost of Capital: 11.2%</div>
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Net Income:</div>
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2012 (estimate from CCC and Berong): Php2.48B</div>
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2011 (non-recurring): 1.37B</div>
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2010: -847M</div>
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2009: -2.22B</div>
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Assuming only <b><i>conservative long term growth of 3%</i></b>, the value of Atlas Mining based on its earnings would only be around:</div>
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<b>Fair Value per share: 10.82</b></div>
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Current market value as of April 27,2012 is 19.3. To justify current values, Atlas Mining should target higher long term growth at 7% for which target price by then would be at around 22 per share.</div>
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Based on AT's financial statements, income reached around Php 15B, however most of this just came from the increase in fair value coming from the increased stake of AT over Carmen Copper. If we base our net income projections only on recurring income from its mines, we only get the above values.</div>
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Do take note that we only base our computations from existing operations, primarily on CCC and Berong Nickel mines. Other significant sources of income for the firm should be included (if there are any).</div>
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From here, we would assess that AT is fairly valued at current market price. AT is just starting to turnaround coming from negative earnings of previous years.</div>
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<h3>
Technicals:</h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpIV5ZV2nk4kodmGTH6B3CqaxCDp6UYJ8nF67DG07MhsLzPDYgt86VIb0FJGN-A251V5ny5XyG0iPGX-8lrnXApFs5Bc7xFz3GpRa9R_UuG39rO5aEsb4lQ0KTiBdIwzVjycVaxZ_MsQg/s1600/2012Apr-Atlas+Consolidated+Mining+&+Development+Corporation+-+B-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpIV5ZV2nk4kodmGTH6B3CqaxCDp6UYJ8nF67DG07MhsLzPDYgt86VIb0FJGN-A251V5ny5XyG0iPGX-8lrnXApFs5Bc7xFz3GpRa9R_UuG39rO5aEsb4lQ0KTiBdIwzVjycVaxZ_MsQg/s640/2012Apr-Atlas+Consolidated+Mining+&+Development+Corporation+-+B-800x600.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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The 2 year chart shows a major resistance at 19.8 while trying to maintain a positive long term trend.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwara3iIBGX2MYXkcmQf0XOwzVC14-Dv2A_uBDhgCIcFdii630_eML59dEzZ1AexUeVEZGgJGneotXK3oMqFp2GrKWa3O6mUBam_1HNt3472AsgBtMQ2HWY5zIlcDU07f7iCLH5KiGLGE/s1600/2012Apr-Atlas+Consolidated+Mining+&+Development+Corporation+-+B-800x6002.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwara3iIBGX2MYXkcmQf0XOwzVC14-Dv2A_uBDhgCIcFdii630_eML59dEzZ1AexUeVEZGgJGneotXK3oMqFp2GrKWa3O6mUBam_1HNt3472AsgBtMQ2HWY5zIlcDU07f7iCLH5KiGLGE/s640/2012Apr-Atlas+Consolidated+Mining+&+Development+Corporation+-+B-800x6002.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Tightening of Bollinger bands has been observed at the start of April. There has been a significant increase in volume transactions which favored the buy side, further pushing up prices towards 19.8 resistance. Going past 19.8 would be a significant breakout as AT may continue further on its up trend move. Meanwhile, a short term support is set at 18.9.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The increase in volume may be attributed to DHC (Consunji Group) having an interest on AT which eventually led to the buying of a minority stake of Atlas Mining.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Personal Disclosure: Bought AT last April 20 for an initial position after it went past 18.9 with significant volume. This is more of a technical play and will be traded only for the short term.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">This post does not give a comprehensive analysis on the company/industry. This is only a summary or a company snapshot as of the date it was posted. Spotlight stocks featured in this blog are being chosen arbitrarily, and are only intended for the blog owner's personal consumption; not as a form of solicitation to buy or to sell. Comments from readers who would like to point out errors, to share ideas, etc are most welcome. </span></div>
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<br /></div>ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-26540623401223769432012-04-14T22:57:00.000+08:002012-04-14T22:57:59.010+08:00Spotlight: Vista Land & Lifescapes Inc. (VLL)<a href="http://www.vistamanila.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/vistaland1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="162" src="http://www.vistamanila.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/vistaland1.jpg" width="320" /></a><br />
<h2>Business Overview:</h2>This is an investment holding company of Senator <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manny_Villar">Manny Villar</a>, which concentrates mostly on Philippine Real Estate businesses. VLL serves as the parent company to the following subsidiaries:<br />
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<b>Brittany Corporation (100%) </b>- Luxury houses for the high end market segment (Php9M++) in Mega Manila. e.g. Portofino, Crosswinds, La Posada, Mosaic and Avant.<br />
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<b>Crown Asia Properties (100%)</b> - Middle market housing segment (Php3.5M-Php9M) in Mega Manila. e.g. Citta Italia, Maia Alta, and Ponticelli.<br />
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<b>Camella Homes (100%)</b> - low cost (below Php1.3M) and affordable housing segment (Php1.3M-Php3.5M) in Mega Manila. e.g. Tierra Nevada, Nova Romania, Cerritos, Pacific Residences, and Trevi Towers.<br />
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<b>Communities Philippines <i>formerly known as Crown Communities </i>(100%)</b> - residential properties outside MM; from low-cost to middle market segments. e.g. Savannah (Iloilo), Plantacion Meridienne (Batangas), Solariega (Davao), Frontera (Cagayan De Oro), Azienda Milan (Cebu), and Wedgewood (Pangasinan).<br />
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<b>Vista Residences (100%)</b> - Residential high-rise condominium projects across the Philippines.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://camellahomesproperty.webs.com/Terrassaview.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="310" src="http://camellahomesproperty.webs.com/Terrassaview.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Manny Villar started out this family business focusing on low cost housing (large-scale production) and initiated selling through house & lot packages. Their business is now divided into different market segments and also involves vertical projects (condominiums).</div><br />
<h2>Quick Numbers:</h2><h3>Fundamentals</h3><div>Book Value of Equity (AR 2011): ~Php40.6B</div><div>Outstanding Shares: ~8.54B</div><div><br />
</div><div><b>BV/share: Php 4.77</b><br />
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Debt Ratio: 22%<br />
Beta: 1.08<br />
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Net Income:<br />
2011: Php3.5B<br />
2010: Php 3.0B<br />
2009: Php 2.3B<br />
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Assuming conservative growth, fair value for the company based on earnings (DCF analysis) would be around:<br />
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<b>Fair Value/share: Php5.32</b><br />
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As of 4/13/12, VLL closed at 4.3 which is still below book value. Considering our estimated fair value of 5.32, we still have a potential upside of +24%<br />
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<h3>Technicals:</h3></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn9PjBV4jgyisCImPCS_rxiMxrGZ9_4yzoGelS5Lmj0o__EBlZ7HO0cg3t0pn6rIdzJKrOBitipKlBXIcHFNvNxMvuzrTNNv6RcqkWhbTl76hukPQcGC89bXnofdwa4f6FRO0v6y_Jexs/s1600/2012Apr-Vista+Land+&+Lifescapes,+Inc.-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn9PjBV4jgyisCImPCS_rxiMxrGZ9_4yzoGelS5Lmj0o__EBlZ7HO0cg3t0pn6rIdzJKrOBitipKlBXIcHFNvNxMvuzrTNNv6RcqkWhbTl76hukPQcGC89bXnofdwa4f6FRO0v6y_Jexs/s640/2012Apr-Vista+Land+&+Lifescapes,+Inc.-800x600.png" width="640" /></a></div><div> Last thursday (April 12), price broke out from its consolidating range (Darvas Box), and is supported with good volume. MACD indicator also shows signal for another uptrend, forming a higher low. Creating a bullish flag pattern, next target would be around 4.7 which is close to book value. However, RSI indicator signals that prices are on overbought conditions (due to its parabolic rise); but given the other bullish indicators, prices would have to consolidate a bit for a while before its next big push upwards. At current price of 4.3, it is still halfway through initial BV target, so it's a possible Buy on Dips.</div><div><br />
</div><div>PD: I wasn't able to buy due to my low bids. Prices last Friday went straight up. Will wait for further retracements, if ever given the chance.</div><div><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">This post does not give a comprehensive analysis on the company/industry. This is only a summary or a company snapshot as of the date it was posted. Spotlight stocks featured in this blog are being chosen arbitrarily, and are only intended for the blog owner's personal consumption; not as a form of solicitation to buy or to sell. Comments from readers who would like to point out errors, to share ideas, etc are most welcome. </span></div>ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-36863537027903378592012-04-08T13:49:00.008+08:002012-04-14T22:58:29.001+08:00Spotlight: Alliance Global Group, Inc (AGI)<h2>Business Overview:</h2>AGI started out as a glass manufacturer before becoming a holding company, diversifying its business into 3 segments: Real Estate, Food and Beverage, and Quick Service Restaurant Business. Below are some of the subsidiaries under these business segments:<br />
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<h4><b>Real Estate</b> (AGI interest): </h4>Megaworld Corporation (57%) - publicly listed MEG<br />
Global-Estate Resort (61%) - publicly listed GERI<br />
Richmonde Hotel Group (57%)<br />
Eastwood Cyber One (57%)<br />
Empire East (33%) - publicly listed ELI<br />
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<h4><b>Food and Beverage</b> (AGI interest):</h4>Emperador Distillers, Inc (100%) - product: Emperador Brandy<br />
The Bar Beverages (100%) - product: The Bar<br />
Alliance Global Brands (100%) - owns the foreign subsidiary handling Piknik potato snack products.<br />
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<h4><b>Quick Service Restaurants:</b></h4>Golden Arches Development Corporation (49%) - operations and franchising of McDonalds in the Philippines.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.cebubeautifulhomes.page4.me/images-2-1_277_297.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.cebubeautifulhomes.page4.me/images-2-1_277_297.jpg" /></a></div><br />
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AGI is owned and managed by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Tan">Andrew Tan</a>, counted among the top billionaires in the country.<br />
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<h2>Quick Numbers:</h2><h3><b>Fundamentals:</b></h3>Book Value of Equity (3Q 2011): ~ Php 122B**<br />
Outstanding Shares: ~10.3B<br />
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<b>BV/share: Php 11.90/share</b><br />
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Debt Ratio: 25%<br />
Beta: 1.28<br />
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Net Income:<br />
2011: Php16B<br />
2010: Php 7.5B<br />
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Assuming conservative growth, fair value for the company mainly based on earnings using DCF analysis would be :<br />
<b>Fair Value/share: Php18.4 </b><br />
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</b><br />
As of 4/4/12, AGI's market price is at 12.22/share which is already a little above its book value; however, considering conservative growth (sustainable and long-term), it still has a potential upside of 51% towards FV.<br />
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<h3>Technicals:</h3><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8vSZhfn1WzxJSjuIwjipll2vj0vFEb0aGih1vxsmYbx2kO9BViSfdo33fcX7YbByOwa9KVESCyrYFZSCuKIJDsqkANQtgO1jLjKzS7SNDjhP7vY0oTchF31cHnw3eh9q29n4XDKjPTvo/s1600/2012Apr-Alliance+Global+Group+Inc.-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8vSZhfn1WzxJSjuIwjipll2vj0vFEb0aGih1vxsmYbx2kO9BViSfdo33fcX7YbByOwa9KVESCyrYFZSCuKIJDsqkANQtgO1jLjKzS7SNDjhP7vY0oTchF31cHnw3eh9q29n4XDKjPTvo/s640/2012Apr-Alliance+Global+Group+Inc.-800x600.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
AGI has corrected back down after teasing to break 13.04 (major resistance - previous high since Dec 2010). The company's stock price has just been moving sideways ever since. A short term uptrend can be seen starting Oct 2011 (Green line). 50 day moving average (blue line) may stand as support while its MACD will try to form a higher low, bouncing back up hoping to finally break out from its more than 1 year resistance line.<br />
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** Special thanks to gunther of <a href="http://financemanila.net/">FM</a> for pointing out that I was using Total Assets and not Shareholders' Equity as the book value. I edited this post to modify the book value computations.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">This post does not give a comprehensive analysis on the company/industry. This is only a summary or a company snapshot as of the date it was posted. Spotlight stocks featured in this blog are being chosen arbitrarily, and are only intended for the blog owner's personal consumption; not as a form of solicitation to buy or to sell. Comments from readers who would like to point out errors, to share ideas, etc are most welcome. </span>ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-49753463910166195852012-03-31T11:09:00.000+08:002012-03-31T11:09:47.930+08:00March 2012<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">ScIoN Fund </span>(mid-long term)</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">YTD: <b><span style="color: #274e13;">+18.20%</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">Benchmark: <b><span style="color: #990000;">+16.2%</span></b></span></span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqSJJtCGjDV66WjtywQpFVk5DW4F6QZs3TTu4KnCkehaCS9dG4P2svS4152FrxZP8-ZYiiZbDxu4y3tmJeRFhUTs8BL3EP1f6B_fKPIPmkiha_oIxlxTO_d53Fi7a4YeB-1vNZkwcaKoQ/s1600/Screen+shot+2012-03-30+at+6.32.16+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqSJJtCGjDV66WjtywQpFVk5DW4F6QZs3TTu4KnCkehaCS9dG4P2svS4152FrxZP8-ZYiiZbDxu4y3tmJeRFhUTs8BL3EP1f6B_fKPIPmkiha_oIxlxTO_d53Fi7a4YeB-1vNZkwcaKoQ/s400/Screen+shot+2012-03-30+at+6.32.16+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;"><b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">March was a generally good trading month for me since my portfolio increased for another 6% in just 2 weeks. I was able to realize gains from ANI, TEL and PXP. TA cash dividends has also arrived. Biggest portfolio movers maintain to be FDC and MARC. However, on the latter part of the month, MARC had a big correction going down to 3. I'm currently 2% above my benchmark, so I'm happy with my first quarter performance so far.</span></span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJh04twL750neSRpZmD_DjJGEewQPsMK3K6BDVuy0uGugVNroqpKFdOkQtCXnwJil4CLug89guo7tYhyphenhyphenzquguy7deB4B0q3t0_Z5eer2G9vENcxQjnNzCxfEVRwXnphkUUpUt6SMAweWE/s1600/Screen+shot+2012-03-31+at+10.25.17+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="347" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJh04twL750neSRpZmD_DjJGEewQPsMK3K6BDVuy0uGugVNroqpKFdOkQtCXnwJil4CLug89guo7tYhyphenhyphenzquguy7deB4B0q3t0_Z5eer2G9vENcxQjnNzCxfEVRwXnphkUUpUt6SMAweWE/s640/Screen+shot+2012-03-31+at+10.25.17+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">I'm still bullish for our local market; however, I'm waiting for another correction of the market. Index was able to maintain the positive trend channel which started January this year. But, comparing it with the MACD indicator, there seems to be a negative divergence. The ScIoN fund is currently 21% cash, so if ever there would be a major dip, I'd have enough ammo to buy.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;"><b><span style="color: #073763;">AJC Fund </span><i>(short term fund)</i></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">YTD (2 months): <b><span style="color: #990000;">-0.68%</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">Benchmark: <span style="color: #274e13;"><b>+4.4%</b></span></span></span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1z9hToHiSRkBJKmgYYZaJ7nSwVAAeU_EwhsqPs3P1m1c7so-w-VsIQCUplMAbAsXok643bOkHJmvmd_kYX49p-9TyzdBWFiWB4N7SPjPreUPdQVT3Ux5qoja3rqVUn2t2SxlP_aB2EG4/s1600/Screen+shot+2012-03-31+at+10.53.28+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1z9hToHiSRkBJKmgYYZaJ7nSwVAAeU_EwhsqPs3P1m1c7so-w-VsIQCUplMAbAsXok643bOkHJmvmd_kYX49p-9TyzdBWFiWB4N7SPjPreUPdQVT3Ux5qoja3rqVUn2t2SxlP_aB2EG4/s400/Screen+shot+2012-03-31+at+10.53.28+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;"><span style="color: #274e13;"><b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">The AJC Fund reached its all-time high of a +4.17% mid-March thanks to MARC (High of 3.52); however, as mentioned earlier, it went back down to 3. Since the portfolio is less diversified as compared to the ScIoN fund, volatility is higher at this point. I exited MARC at 3 with a gain of around 8%. Last month's losses (-2.97%) were recovered and now, portfolio is at a near break-even (-0.68%). </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 22px;">The challenge here is to beat the benchmark portfolio. It includes EDC, BEL and MPI which were big gainers for March; thus, having a good run this month (4.4%). I had entered AGI; however, price movement turned out to be a bull trap. I'm having </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 22px;">Cash ready at 70%, waiting to jump in when the market corrects. </span>ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6593061761825706017.post-71635990238131017732012-02-29T19:09:00.001+08:002012-02-29T19:16:48.165+08:00February 2012<b><span style="color: #38761d; font-size: large;">ScIoN Fund </span><span style="font-size: large;"><i>(mid-long term)</i></span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d; font-size: large;"><br />
</span></b><br />
<b>YTD: <span style="color: #274e13;">12.64%</span></b><br />
<b>Benchmark (PSEi): 11.4%</b><br />
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The following is the composition of my trading portfolio: (as of Feb 29, 2012)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi8McJb_upL8AkBYriMBLqyVXBcrfjRSM5CZlVEcqO8_5NOSmbgwLQ3eJhAK9pklpKDreHB1PebBrJORGDgj9JlC3kSLoESedOWiWqa_jms3XoWbWr8Mb324wRoJrtFC6HySBeiT93h0c/s1600/Screen+shot+2012-02-29+at+5.54.39+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi8McJb_upL8AkBYriMBLqyVXBcrfjRSM5CZlVEcqO8_5NOSmbgwLQ3eJhAK9pklpKDreHB1PebBrJORGDgj9JlC3kSLoESedOWiWqa_jms3XoWbWr8Mb324wRoJrtFC6HySBeiT93h0c/s640/Screen+shot+2012-02-29+at+5.54.39+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
February saw the rise of FDC and I hope that it will still continue. With its book value still far below market, plus the planned IPO of EWB, I am still holding this stock perhaps before or after a planned secondary IPO or private placement will be announced.<br />
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I have repositioned my portfolio a little bit away from mining stocks (PX, LC/B) and slowly diversified to other sectors. My exposure to mining is now limited to MARC which seems to be a good prospect as based on its report on earnings and operations. <br />
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Oil has now been an issue due to the news on Iran. I choose PXP to be a good mid-long term stock. I just hope that they would no longer require equity financing as it would shake down the stock's market prices. A lot of companies had been undergoing private placements lately, and the market has not responded too well on such kind of news, at least for the short-term.<br />
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Unexpectedly, TA announced another SRO this year which dragged down the prices; thus, hitting my sell indicators. Seems like TA is maintaining a debt-capital ratio of around 40:60 (max). I still like this stock since it is both Power and Oil play. Although I expect market prices to go down as effect to the news on SRO.<br />
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February was a good month as it extended gains. My portfolio reached a max YTD of 15% until profit-taking happened during the latter days of the month. I think we'll be under a consolidaton phase for 1-2 more weeks before we get to see any action. Good thing I'm 20% cash right now, I'll practice range trading and will also start accumulating for the strong index stocks.<br />
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<b><span style="color: #0c343d; font-size: large;">AJC Fund <i>(short term)</i></span></b><br />
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<b>YTD: <span style="color: #990000;">-2.97%</span></b><br />
<b>Benchmark: -1.4%</b><br />
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Much of the loss was attributed to the sudden SRO news on TA which caused it to drop to as low as 1.12 from 1.31. Fundamentals of TA is still good and intact, however, my strategy for the AJC Fund would be more on short-mid term unlike the ScIoN fund which is mid-long term. <br />
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The run-up of stocks was for those who already had positions at the end of January. Positioning in February was a bit tricky, a lot of setups became bull/bear traps. For now, I have positioned the fund into 30% MARC, short term on SLI (15%) and the rest on cash. There are still oddlots on EDC and BEL which I can't dispose, so I'll just leave them there for now.<br />
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The Benchmark portfolio is based on the original portfolio when it was handed over to me. Assuming if I did not change anything, YTD is at -1.4%.ScIoNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04947056116183172374noreply@blogger.com0