PCOR the Underdog

Nice to see Petron (PCOR.PS) which has been a battered stock since 2013 rise by +36% in just 1 day.   At 3:15pm, the stock was trading at 7.33 then at pre-closing period at 3:20pm (where At-The-Close orders are being matched), the stocks were being bought automatically at Php10 by foreign broker DBP-Daiwa    Whether it be a blunder of one trader (poor soul) or part of some window dressing activities, this is definitely great news for PCOR stuckholders (sic).

If indeed it was an operational mistake, it's not the first time that it happened within the PSE.   I remember the ALI Super Sale back in August 2010 when the stock's price got sold down by 15% also at-the-close.  Maybe the trader intended to post a GTC Sell  (Good-till-canceled) but instead entered a GTC buy. 

For holders, one cannot ignore the fact that we now have a foreign broker carrying Php41M worth of shares at  Php10 a piece.  This improves the chances of getting out of the price depression overhang set by 2 consecutive private placements in 2014 and the current global oil price rut.  Of course, the next interesting part would be on how the prices will behave on next trading day (Monday, beginning of August).

Chart-wise, this looks like a mean reversion towards the 200-day Moving Average (~1yr horizon).  It needs a bit more push to break the longstanding downtrend.  Hopefully once positive quarterly earnings (despite low oil price) gets out, that could be a catalyst for a positive reversal.

Picks of the Week [June 21-June 24]

This week's a short one due to today's holiday with respect to the Philippines' National Hero, Dr. Jose Rizal on his 150th birthday.  I wouldn't mind the short trading time since the market is still on sideways anyway.

I am still guarding in on my current holdings, not being able to check a lot of stock charts for this week.  The stock that I have that seems to have potential in going up would be AP as evidenced by the strong close last Friday.

Investors should be wary though, since this may only be temporary especially when forced closings are not sustainable.  But looking on Friday's data, S.B. Securities and DBP-Daiwa were responsible from the sudden jump of the stock's prices, considerably with volume.  I see this as a bullish sign.  Interestingly, DBP-Daiwa seems to be shifting its funds to AP and SCC, both of which I have.

*  I am happy to discover ChartNexus which offers its charting software for free, with PSE data also available.  If only its add-on, XpertTrader is also free, then I would be able to automate my trading system. hehehe

On a High

It was my first day at graduate school today (1st class at 1pm) so I was not able to monitor the market until its close.up:gucci handbags

Last night's DOW-J was green and so I was still expecting a longer run for EDC at 5.28.  Gen. DS declared a buy at 5.2, and so I have decided to take hold of my shares yet, cancelling my exit.  The price did go up higher at 5.37 then eventually went back down closing @ 5.26.  In hindsight, selling at my original target exit was ok, but I need to find a new target entry.  EDC's FV is at 7.54 (as of 9/8) which means the stock is still cheap. 

The market started strongly with SCC having a gap up to 134 (+4) at the opening, reaching 140 before 10am.  This is already a paper gain of 7% for me, even better than the magic of ALI.  My tipster, Gen. DS, sold at 140 and was planning on re-entering at 135.  I guess he was able to enter at 136.  Multiple entries with SCC is great since break-even can be easily achieved at a peso per share cost.  Fluctuations should have been in tenths (0.x), but just like what had happened this morning, it went by the peso.  If DOW-J would show weakness, I'd aim for at least 140, if not, I could wait until 150.  Buy the dips, 20% per decrease of 3.  Currently closed @139.

Since I already need to leave, I just posted a sell order for my ALI @18.  This was supposed to be a "delayed sale" after the intraday jump and so I have set this as my exit target.  Another surprise move at the close; if only I have set my order a bit higher than 18, then I could have been given a bonus for the 18.7 close of ALI.  DBP-Daiwa is again buying bullishly forcing the close at these levels.  Definitely not a fluke.  Let's see how they play.  I'll be waiting for the dips on monday.

The Magic of ALI

A few weeks ago, ALI had a "super discount sale" ,  rumored to be due to human error from a broker at ATR.  Stocks were sold @14, 2 Pesos lower from the ongoing price at around 16 per share.  PSE index had a major pulldown that day because of ALI.  Eventually, ALI pulled back up the following day when it was traded at around 15 during the opening (and even rose further upwards).

After trading back at "normal" levels, ALI had been silently moving towards its upward direction.  Thinking that I should move in back to property stocks, I was able to reposition myself with ALI, albeit on a slightly earlier time.

And so I was a bit sad realizing that I still need to practice more on my buy and sell indicators/strategy.  Since I didn't expect ALI to bounce back upwards as it is still on its RSI high, I had just been monitoring my EDC shares hoping to find a good exit.


My dental appointment was scheduled on this day, so I had no choice but to leave my stocks and hope that nothing bad would happen abruptly.  Today was also a tennis day for me and my friend, so I was only able to go home at around 5pm.

Lo and behold!  I got amazed that ALI had been traded at 18 during closing!  This gives me around 7% paper gain in only 1 day!  And since my picking of ALI yesterday was based mainly on my decision, I felt proud of myself.  (But I think it's really just luck! hehe)up:gucci handbags

BUT... one should not count the golden eggs yet, as this is still just a paper gain.  Going back to the Time Sales, I found out that ALI was trading at 16.9 then jumped to 18 at the close.  The trade started with a cross-sale within S.B. Securities, then lots of brokers participated in the killing.  DBP-Daiwa bought solidly while ATR had cross trades in the millions.

This is a very interesting sight for me, since I still have my shares with me.  The big question is, could I be able to sell at the 18.xx price point?  Target: Lock in on profits, sell @18!