April 2012

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)

YTD:  +21.43%

Benchmark: +18.3%

Much of this month's gains came from the liquidation of TA upon touching the 200MA @1.21.  TA remains to be an undervalued stock; however, there is still the SRO overhang which discourages some investors to go in, at least until ex-date.  We remain bullish with MARC for its Nickel trades; especially since Indonesia has started banning their Nickel exports.

BDO has also been let go after its SRO announcement.  Prices plummeted the day after the announcement, as stockholders would need to lighten their BDO shares if they still want to maintain the same exposure.

FDC enjoyed some push coming from its subsidiary's IPO (East West Bank).  The stock's price went up as high as 5.19, or +10.66% from last month's close.  We shall wait for further price action when EWB would finally go public this May after being oversubscribed 3x.

PAX is a bit of a disappointment since we are having paper losses from this stock.  Hopefully prices would pick up once again this May after waiting for disclosures regarding the supposed huge cash it got from selling of a subsidiary.

We now maintain cash close to 40% of the total portfolio.  It's summer season once again, and some believe in "Sell in May and go away".  Perhaps traders go into a vacation, leaving behind a low volume market susceptible to volatile prices with a selling bias.  It's high time for early leaders to take a breather; thus, an opportunity for a buy when prices dip.

AJC Fund (short term fund)

YTD (3 months):  +0.24%

Benchmark: +5.64%

This fund is still lagging behind since MPI (benchmark stock) continued its strong push.  Out of all the trades this month, only FDC provided a respectable gain, enough to offset some losses.  Largest allocation goes to PAX; however, the stock underperformed this month.  Its fundamentals remain to be strong, but has weak positive momentum.  Hopefully, the other stocks would compensate and help push next month's trading gains.

February 2012

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)


YTD: 12.64%
Benchmark (PSEi): 11.4%

The following is the composition of my trading portfolio: (as of Feb 29, 2012)

February saw the rise of FDC and I hope that it will still continue.  With its book value still far below market, plus the planned IPO of EWB, I am still holding this stock perhaps before or after a planned secondary IPO or private placement will be announced.

I have repositioned my portfolio a little bit away from mining stocks (PX, LC/B) and slowly diversified to other sectors.  My exposure to mining is now limited to MARC which seems to be a good prospect as based on its report on earnings and operations.

Oil has now been an issue due to the news on Iran. I choose PXP to be a good mid-long term stock.  I just hope that they would no longer require equity financing as it would shake down the stock's market prices.  A lot of companies had been undergoing private placements lately, and the market has not responded too well on such kind of news, at least for the short-term.

Unexpectedly, TA announced another SRO this year which dragged down the prices; thus, hitting my sell indicators.  Seems like TA is maintaining a debt-capital ratio of around 40:60 (max).  I still like this stock since it is both Power and Oil play.  Although I expect market prices to go down as effect to the news on SRO.

February was a good month as it extended gains.  My portfolio reached a max YTD of 15% until profit-taking happened during the latter days of the month.  I think we'll be under a consolidaton phase for 1-2 more weeks before we get to see any action.  Good thing I'm 20% cash right now, I'll practice range trading and will also start accumulating for the strong index stocks.

AJC Fund (short term)

YTD: -2.97%
Benchmark: -1.4%

Much of the loss was attributed to the sudden SRO news on TA which caused it to drop to as low as 1.12 from 1.31.  Fundamentals of TA is still good and intact, however, my strategy for the AJC Fund would be more on short-mid term unlike the ScIoN fund which is mid-long term.

The run-up of stocks was for those who already had positions at the end of January.  Positioning in February was a bit tricky, a lot of setups became bull/bear traps.  For now, I have positioned the fund into 30% MARC, short term on SLI (15%) and the rest on cash.  There are still oddlots on EDC and BEL which I can't dispose, so I'll just leave them there for now.

The Benchmark portfolio is based on the original portfolio when it was handed over to me.  Assuming if I did not change anything, YTD is at -1.4%.

January 2012

ScIoN Fund

The following is the composition for my trading portfolio as of Feb 3, 2012:

I am happy to say that except for FDC which I still have a cost at 3.94, all of the other stocks are on a positive.  The Philippine Index is doing good that only a few funds have exceeded its current 8.81% YTD gain.  The ScIoN fund registers 9.01%, just a few notches above the index'.

AJC Fund

Starting this February, I will also hold another portfolio which is being handed over to me by a friend.  He was not able to monitor his stocks and was already around 12% down.  I'll be rebalancing his portfolio which can take a few more trading days to sell the losers and hopefully buy the winners.    He has already lost a total of around Php60,000 and it would be my pleasure to turn this loss into a gain.    We're in a bullish market nowadays, and that's why I'm confident that I can do it! :D

This is his portfolio when it was given to me.  Average price is his cost, while Market price was the current price during that day.



As of Feb 3, 2012,  I have already sold APC@.72 and BEL@4.73.  Bought TA@1.31.

Portfolio down by 0.76% relative to its market value on day 1.

2011 Year End Report

From last year's 12.37% gain (5 months), my stock portfolio only managed to sneak in a disappointing 2.06% YTD gain.  It was during September when Euro debt fears affected the global markets that my 11.49% YTD went down to a -2.41% loss in just one month.  Prices bounced back a little by December.

At the start of the year, I have positioned myself into AP, EDC, TA and FDC as my long term stock holdings.  Unfortunately, the power industry rested from its bullish run after the 2009 financial crash.  I did gain from EDC until I sold all on May when it broke its moving average supports.  My "Power play" was a bit early. As for FDC, it delayed its follow-on offering due to unfavorable market conditions.  The Euro Debt scare is still very much alive, and it pulls down overall market sentiment despite good Philippine fundamentals.

My best earners were (more than 10%): URC (21%), PX (19%), FOOD (19%), LC (52%).
Dividend givers (cash more than 1k): URC (~4.6%), EDC (~2.8%), AP (~4.66%), PXP (in the form of shares from PX)
Worst losses (more than 10%): MPI (-13%), PCOR (-12%), LPZ (-11.6%), LC (-18.7%), PX (-13.7%), WPI (-41.8%), ELI (-13.4%), MEG (-11.8%)

I have been using more Technical Analysis lately, and the good thing is, I have managed to improve in the money management department.  Cutting losses is hard to do, but it's best to cut losses early than to realize it when it's already too late.  By the middle of the year, I have started using Ichimoku Kinkou Hyou, aka kumo (cloud) trading.  It's a visual guide for me to determine supports and resistances, and to see trend reversals and breakouts.

I used to try and limit my holdings to just a few stocks, but given a lot of chart breakouts lately, I diversified into a lot.  Especially during the time the PSE was moving sideways.  I may reconsider again now that we are on quasi-bullish mode (a little more to confirm).  I also try to practice turtle trading, for which I buy a position and take some profits when targets have been reached, leaving behind some shares for further run-up.

This is the whole pie of my trading portfolio (23% of my whole Investment Port):

Seems like the theme for my trading portfolio would be power, oil and mining.  I'm still hoping FDC would start going up this first quarter of the year.




My Investment Portfolio is divided into:

Equities (66%)
-BDO Equity Fund (33%) :  -2.13%   * was caught in a bull trap when I entered last May.
-COL trading account (23%): +2.06%  * August dip led my once YTD 12% down to a negative in just a month.  My long term stocks actually kicked in a little bit late, now at the start of 2012.
-ATR Mutual Fund (10%):   -1.6% *My very first investment 4 years ago which is actually on a gain of 41%


Bonds (18%) 
-BDO Bond Fund (18%): +5.17% *Instead of investing on balanced funds, you can allocate your own through Bond and Equity Funds.

Savings Account (16%) *Still on the process of transferring funds from here to other investments.  Should only leave money here for liquidity purposes.

Overall, my portfolio is still intact.  I may not have earned a lot this year, but I can say that I have improved greatly.  What is important is that I now have my own trading system for Technical Analysis.  I will still stick with fundamentals especially for long term "conviction" holds.

Before the Year 2011 Ends

Supposed to be a November 2011 report, however, it's almost mid-December already and trading days may be halved due to the holidays.  With the ongoing sideways movement of the PSE market, I have started liquidating my earlier positions then enter using technical trends.  Due to the sudden downtrend last September, a lot of stocks started reversing towards a positive trend and so I see this as an opportunity to recalibrate my portfolio.

Below is the new composition of my portfolio.  I have significantly reduced my position in AP due to its laggardness (been holding it for a year) and entered into a lot of faster moving stocks.  I did a lot of short term trades lately and I think I'm doing relatively well considering I'm faster in cutting my losses short and taking profits.  I now practice turtle trading, and I love it!  November losses were neutralized, though a lot of cut-loss trades are yet to come this December care of my repositioning in AP and the more recent drop in PX (due to the Ongpin insider trading hearings).

 I know before that I vowed to limit my stock holdings into probably 5 only; however, my new strategy is to apply trailing stops and take profits at breakout levels.  I do have to remind myself that this would be for a sideways market.  Not sure if this would be doubly effective on a bullish one.

In terms of my Fund Performance, I still beat the index but only more than a 100 basis points.
PSEi:  2.13%
ScIoN: 3.30%


One of the main reasons for my Fund's underperformance (from expected) is the delay in FDC's follow-on offering.  I just hope the Gotianuns or whoever their equities guy is, would start pumping up FDC prices, to be able to offer to the public by 1st quarter next year.

October 2011 Performance

Missed around 3 months of updating since I've been busy and the market was in a slump.  Though it was August that was declared as a "ghost month" in accordance to Chinese beliefs, market decline started a month later.

I have 2 portfolios on my Bloomberg Portfolio tracker.  The first one is on managed funds: a combination of a mutual fund via ATR Kim Eng and BDO Equity and Bond Funds.  I'm quite satisfied with my BDO Funds, it's ATR Kim Eng (aka The Mutual Fund Company) which disappoints.  I plan to redeem all my shares as soon as possible and probably shift it to other accounts.

Portfolio 1 breakdown
BDO Equity Fund:  55%
ATR Kim Eng Fund: 16%
BDO Bond Fund: 29%

I'm really happy with BDO Bond Fund as it is giving me an annualized gain of 10%.  I've got positive returns for all 4 months that I have been invested.  Although, September just gave me a close to 0 positive return, but it was generally due to a market slump.

Portfolio 2:  Self-managed Fund
July was the start of a bull run, however, news on Greece and Europe in general scared all the bulls leading to a huge drop in September.  A 2 month rally which gave me 6% in portfolio gains got erased in just a month.  At the end of October, I am still left with less than a percent difference (loss) compared to my July portfolio.

From a YTD gain of 11.5% at the end of August, my portfolio got wiped out and ended up to -2% in just a month!  I had to liquidate my long-term positions on LC and PX.  My biggest regrettable loss came from a speculative for which I did not cut loss early (WPI).  At least it was just a small position, however I lost around 50% on that.

YTD Performance: (paper)
ScIoN Fund: 3.94%
PSEi: 1.58%
ATR Kim Eng: -1.12%

In terms of cash, I have liquidated a total gain of around 5.53% already.  Reinvested profits are currently at a loss, as shown by a lower paper YTD compared to cash.  I now plan to trade only a fixed amount, and the rest would be placed into high dividend yielding stocks or to be transferred to safer investments.

I am also currently 29% cash, since the PSE is still on a sideways trend.  There seems to be a lot of good buys recently as stocks slowly get up from oversold region.  I'd say, the 4th quarter seems to be a good time to go back to the market.  I don't expect a bull run yet, but at least there are lots of upsides now as compared to the downsides.

Picks of the Week [July 11-July 15]

 

I am now in the 2nd phase of my investment experiment involving the timing of the market via the use of Equity Fund investments.  1st phase was to identify and confirm that the market is on its bullish state. 

The Strong Buy indicator pointed around 5 days ago, however it took a day of hesitation plus another day to withdraw my Money Market funds before finally shifting it to Equity Fund.  The delays led me into buying at a high.

Hopefully the trend is truly bullish for at least a month (of course the longer the better) in order for me to gain.  The latest candlestick may indicate a bullish inverted hammer, which requires higher prices than today's close at 4391.  So far, Equity Fund is at -0.50%.

Right now, I am 70% invested on Equities.  With the recent bailout of Greece (although temporarily as it is also seen as a soft default) and good jobs numbers in the US, I hope next week would be another green week.  Unfortunately, as of this writing, DOW is -.97%.  Probably it is the long due correction, and the PSEi would just mind its own business.

The Philippines' business climate is rosy as ever, with favorable credit ratings (already near investment grade) and looking forward to earnings releases, these should be enough to drive the market up high.  The minor bottleneck regarding foreign ownership ratios on some companies have been resolved through PLDT's issuance of voting preferred shares.

As for my trading plan for the week (involving current holdings):

Strong Buys would be FDC and TA which I would buy on dips (5 and 1.11 respectively).

On my watchlist is ELI due to its very huge volume buy today.  If ever it gets to dip at its major SPT at .73, it would be worth looking for a buy.

June 2011 Performance

June was a rollercoaster ride as stocks went down then came back up, retracing from a slightly downward channel.  Cash out profits actually came from cash dividends based on May's ex-dates.   Good thing these dividends were bigger than my losses for the month of June.  These losses primarily were due to AT.  Ironically, it was a bear trap as AT bullied itself through becoming one of the current flavors in the market nowadays.  I nearly did the same thing with PX, fortunately I wasn't that fast enough to cut my losses yet.  PX and AT rose and broke some new highs at the end of this month.

Halfway through the month, my portfolio was at a negative diminishing all gains up to the beginning of the year.  Thankfully, there was a technical rebound bringing back my gains; and hopefully, creating a new bull session after breaking out of the channel.

My portfolio grew around 2.11% from last month, lower from May's performance of 6% (best month so far).  Anyway, a gain is a gain.

My YTD (Year to date) performance compared to the PSEindex and my mutual fund (ATR Kim Eng) is as follows:
ScIoN Fund:   4.92%
PSE Index:      1.15%
ATR KimEng: 0.61%

Pretty much very nice to see since I could somewhat say I have "beaten the market"... for now. :D  But I do know a lot more people who has more impressive portfolio gains ranging from the 20s up to near 100% gain (undiversified).

My current portfolio composition:

June
AP	22.9%
FDC	12.7%
TA	9.4%
LC	8.9%
PX	8.7%
URC	6.4%
LPZ	6.3%
MPI	3.5%
OV	3.5%
SCC	3.3%
Exposure	85.8%

As for Sector composition:
Oil & Energy: 39.09%
Mining: 17.68%
Holdings: 22.5%
Food: 6.4%
Cash: 14.2%

May 2011 Performance

I'm getting the hang of using excel and so I hope that my posts and record-keeping will be more organized.  I had 14 trades for the month of May, quite a lot for a month I guess.  Well, I really had the time to trade since it's our summer break.

Month to month performance:

Equity rose by 6%.  

1.68% of it were realized through cash.

For what matters most is my YTD (Year to Date) Performance in which I reinvested all my gains from last year:

Realized gains is at 2.88%.

Equity at 2.76%.

--> Equity percentage being lower than the realized gain, means that my portfolio is a bit down due to the currently sideways market.

Composition of stocks

AP	21.0%	-2.38%
FDC	13.0%	-1.61%
TA	9.7%	-14.86%	SRO shares not yet included which would reduce the loss.
LC	9.1%	6.13%
PX	8.9%	-0.94%
URC	8.8%	14.42%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
AT	6.8%	1.19%
LPZ	6.5%	-2.24%
SCC	3.4%	-4.43%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
Exposure	87.1%

 

 Remaining 12.9% is Cash which is pretty much standard for me as this is the allocated portion for my "revolving fund".  The colored figures on the right is the actual standing of my holdings, whether it is up or on the negative.

The next table shows my exposure with respect to industry.

Power	24.4%
AP	21%
SCC	3.4%
Oil	9.7%
TA	9.7%
Mining	24.8%
LC	9.1%
PX	8.9%
AT	6.8%
Holdings	19.4%
FDC	13.0%
LPZ	6.5%
Commodities
URC	8.8%

  Shows that I am now a bit heavy on Mining and Power which when combined takes half of my portfolio.  I was able to get out of certain stocks which I held for a long time.  Most of my current stocks are relatively new ones, and that explains why most are in the red -- due to slight correction.  I got shaked out of EDC, which was one of my core stocks.  Unfortunately for me, it was just a bear trap when it touched 6.3s going back up to as high as 6.8.

I can say I am more confident with my portfolio as compared to before.  All thanks to technical analysis and some trend following pointers I have learned.  Looking forward to the coming days!

Picks of the Week [May 30-June 3]

My choices for last week were BEL and AT.  However, due to the general slump of last week's index these 2 stocks also followed in the decrease of stock prices.  BEL for last week was more of a "cautious buy" since there have been no breakouts yet.  During the first 2 days of trading, prices went back to support level; thus, no buy orders were made.

As for AT, I made a mistake interpreting the chart.  My labeling of a "bullish flag" was incorrect, and should have just been a range trade.  As a result, I entered at a slight high of 17.70, instead of just waiting at a lower price near 17.21.  Good thing I entered with just a small position.

For this week, I only have 1 pick and it is PX.  With the upcoming stock dividend in terms of new PPC (Philex Petroleum) shares and a breakout for a new high w/ volume, this is definitely a top pick for me.  I entered with a small position because I felt I was a bit late, even buying at the close.  I guess that's the price to pay with holding a lot of stocks (more or less 10), gives difficulty in terms of monitoring.  Since this is a strong buy for me, I am still waiting for dips near 20.  I just saw the 10 year chart and wow, in hindsight, PX has been a very good investment through the years!

For this week, I tried using the weekly charts instead of just the dailies.  This would be a great exercise for me to not only be dependent on daily charts.  Besides, if I am going to speculate for 1 week, it makes more sense to use the weeklies.

And since I had some sort of trouble monitoring all my current holdings plus waiting for "promising" stocks, this time around, I'll just concentrate first with what I already have.

SELL
EDC- sell on strength.  slower upward channel after breaking UT. RST at 7.17 but might fall down to 5.67. [sell at 6.52 or 6.38]
SCC - correction- downward channel .  sell at RST at 222.26 or at least 214.11. Possible to go down further

HOLD
AP- downward channel to sideways since Nov 10. Range trade SPT at 25.86, lighten at 32.7.  Major SPT at 23.45 (130SMA). 
FDC- major RST at 7.7 (old high). UT still intact and in line with 130SMA.  Start buying if it reaches at least 4.8.  Weak DMI (+)
URC- potential cup and handle. major RST at 46.9 (high). SPT at 65 SMA at 37.79.

Strong BUY
LC- strong DMI (+).  cautiously buy at .78 (dips).  SPT at .74; RST at .93
PX - strong DMI (+).  breakout from new high.  buy near 20 SPT.

Cautious BUY
AT - sideways to up.  R1: 17.68; R2: 20.17.  major SPT at 14.86.  wait for breakout to buy (hammer and buy MACD signal). 
LPZ - UT intact.  retesting major RST 6.6. DMI gaining strength (+).  trend line SPT at 5.61. start to buy at 6.2 to 5.99
TA- must hold 1.05 SPT.  sideways from 1.05 to 1.38.  wait further for a bounce before buying near 1.05


On Monday, TA Stock Rights offer at Php1 will be given. 

April 2011

Took a lot of losses this month as I am now enforcing discipline into my trading plan.  Finished the 2 part lecture on Technical Analysis provided by COL.  I find it very effective especially the observance of the 1:3 risk reward ratio. 

Despite the cut losses, the equity value on my portfolio rose to as high as 6%, mostly thanks to EDC and PX.  FDC is also now on the positive region.

Despite my earlier plan to just keep a minimum of 4 stocks to trade, I don't think it is no longer possible for me.  Right now, I am holding 8-10 stocks at a time.  About 3 of which are my core (AP, EDC, FDC, AMC), while the rest are for momentum plays.  PX is a leftover hold, yet gives me significant gain which even reached up to 30%.  URC, TA and FLI are my latest stocks and I hope they would not disappoint.  AGI has been a laggard, as I was not successful in range trading this stock.

April performance:
Cash: -0.91%
Equity:  +5.83%

March 2011 Performance

I am now going back closely to my previous high with regard to the amount of my equities.  Starting around November, Philippine stocks buckled away from its bullish trend as it underwent consolidation.  I even added up on my capital at the start of the year, which in hindsight was not good timing since prices continued to go down.

Mutual fund companies posts an average of around -3% YTD gain.  Based on my COL account, my YTD gain is -0.66%, already quite close to break-even.  If I am able to maintain this rate, dividend income coming in this April would be able to lead me out of the negative region.  This is definitely a relief for me since I have experienced reaching higher losses up to more than 10% during the first 2 months.

As per month-to-month performances, cash earnings went up by 1.23% while my total equity portfolio improved by 2.62%.  Below are the list of current stocks that I have:

Core:  (Long term investment based on growth potentials and that are heavily traded)
AP
EDC - after consolidating for many months.  It seems 2nd quarter would be EDC's time to shine.

Value: (Usually less liquid stocks but has growth potentials or is extremely undervalued)
AMC
FDC - I plan to accumulate more at 4.2 levels.  The firm would at one point, need to jack up its stock prices before its SRO.  They need to increase their float before November 2011, or else tax incentives as a listed company would be forfeited.  There are also plans for East West banks IPO this year.

Speculative:
PCOR - Bought this due to current prices of oil being high.  Unfortunately bought at a high, and I'm still not sure if it was the right thing to do during the time.  PCOR is more on oil distribution.  Could've explored more into oil drilling business instead (i.e. PERC)
PX - Bought this due to rumors on the PX and MA deals.  PX was relatively less risky as compared to MA, although I think MA should benefit more from the deal.  Latest news reveal that if ever the deal would push through, PX would get 60% while MA would get 40% on their deal on MA's mining rights.  Capital expenses would be provided by PX though.

Swing:
AGI - Trading at a range from 11.3 to 12.  I'll take advantage of it in order to lessen my losses.

February 2011

Been busy these past weeks due to midterm exams.  At least for now, I am into longer terms of trading since guarding the price movements of stocks everyday is just time-consuming.

Ms. Market at the start of March generated positive gains in my portfolio.  My February month-end report should have been on a stalemate (could've been more negative) if not for the last minute rise in prices.  Portfolio moved up by 4.14% despite actual cash loss at -0.75%.  My only sale trade for February was on the repositioning of my losing MPI stock, which I placed into PCOR for some oil play.

Here is a quick rundown my current holdings:
Core:
AP (22%) - I'm very happy now with AP because of its very very strong earnings, leading to generous cash dividends with an ex-div date this March.  I love its 1.32 per share, a 4.4% dividend yield!
EDC (21.5%) - Still struggling with this one as current prices are still below my cost.  Earnings report scheduled to come out this March 25!

Momentum Play:
AGI (16.8%) - Was able to average down once, bringing down my cost.
DMC (12.14%) - Seems to be stronger than AGI due to strong developments with Maynilad and DMCI contracts.
PX ( 11.39%) - Talks with MA/MAB for some mining projects plus an increase in Gold price led me to this decision of buying this stock.
PCOR (5.18%) - Bought this stock for some oil play.  Market generally went down due to crisis in the Midwest, which may affect oil supply in the future.

Long Term/Dividend Play:
AMC (6.36%) - Despite growth in revenues and dividends in March, this stock still sticks around the 13 peso range.
FDC (4.47%) - Quite a shame for this stock as it went down as much as near -30%!  I'm still not quite sure if I should buy more of this, perhaps if there are still available funds to infuse.  Probably needs more research on the sugar industry, East West Banking (possible IPO), and the secondary offer of shares in order to increase its outstanding shares.

January 2011 Performance

I have increased my equity by 50% at the start of this year.  Though I am becoming more confident with myself as a trader with at least a few months of experience, the market isn't as good as it was 2 years ago (right after the subprime mess).

I will try to remain 20% (equivalent to my max hold to 1 stock) in cash on hand as my revolving fund.  One that could help me go in and out of a stock for better market timing.  Whenever I plan to shift my funds from one stock to another, this revolving fund would act as proxy and should be replenished as soon as I have finished buying and selling the 2 stocks.  This should add discipline to my trades.

For my first month of trading this year, it has been a tough one with recurring market declines.  Some even call it as the January effect.  Counting in the 25% increase due to added infusion of funds, I was able to get cash profits of only 0.56% of my total portfolio. 

January was a month for the 3rd liners, basically composed of speculative stocks.  At least I had a small bite with the "trash" play when I had a 1-day trade of ELI, and was rewarded with a 14% stock return.  However, I made a costly mistake with MPI, buying at its high.  I did some cut loss (not yet finished), which eventually narrowed down my month's profit margin.

Total equity dropped by 8%, mostly because of my hold on MPI and FDC.

Summary:
Cash gain:  0.56%
Portfolio gain:  -8%

Slowly but surely, I am trying to practice more with my TA with the use of different indicators aside from the common MACD and RSI:
DMI
STS
RVI
CCI
Parabolic SAR

I hope I could get better with this.

Here's a look on the latest chart on the PSEi.

Cliffhanging

Egypt is all over the news because of its own version of a People Power happening against its decades old President, Mubarak.  The Global financial market remains to be shaky as it awaits positive development over the situation.  The PSE has not been exempted from the uneasiness, as the market has dropped down by 88 points.

Surprisingly, my portfolio wasn't greatly affected as most of my holdings remained intact.  MPI, though currently at a negative, did not go down; in fact it showed strength up to the close.  As for my other "loser", FDC, it was bought up by ATR at the close (thus, just a temporary rise).

For today's trade, I was able to sell half of my MPI as it went up to 3.64, transferring risks on to EDC which went down to 5.77.  MPI has been showing strength these past few days, but I really need to start transferring my hold on to the more reliable stocks which I believe in.

For AGI, I should have sold earlier (last Friday) as my indicators already show short term weakness.  Will have to wait again when CCI reaches its top for a sell.  COL has released its latest study on AGI, and has increased its tp for this stock.  The increase in AGI's value is heavily attributed to its gaming business such as that of Resorts World, which has just opened last year.  Industry comparisons also favor AGI over its competitors (i.e. AC).

Watchlist:
One of my favorites: SCC

I should buy once it breaches towards the lower Bollinger bands.  Traded strongly on a weak market yesterday.

FDC Countermeasure

FDC broke my heart, but I still believe in the fundamentals of this stock.  The problem is that it has low float, thus can be easily abandoned by impatient short term traders.  As a consolation, at least I didn't put much yet on this stock and so there is still room to add for more, if I really choose this to be one of my core holdings. (Current core: AP and EDC).

Here is the 1 year chart where I may plan to buy more shares once an STS buy would be triggered.

Reasons why I still believe in this stock:
1.) Undervalued, with current P/E at 10x.
2.) Impending IPO for one of its earning subsidiaries: EastWest Banking.
3.) FDC plans for a 2PO but would not want to sell at current low prices.  This 2PO is needed in order to increase the company's float from less than 10% to about 33%.
4.) Intact earnings, with sugar having high prices this year.  (subsidiary: Pacific Sugar Holdings).

FDC

My first time to look at FDC's charts, I have noted that a bullish pennant has been formed.  On the next trading day, it was traded with gusto gaining impressive volume signifying a valid positive momentum.

FDC (Filinvest Development Corporation) is the parent company of FLI (Filinvest Land) and EastWest Bank.  The company is also involved in the production of sugar (Pacific Sugar Holdings Corporation).  East West Bank plans to do an IPO, probably  this year, so this should be a good thing for FDC.

Looking at the Price-Earnings ratio, FDC has increased its EPS from .23 in 2009 to .52 in 2010.  My personal TP for now would be 8.56, assuming stable growth and earnings.

I am including this stock to be among my watchlist for this year, which already include AP, DGTL and EDC.

Personal Recommendation:  BUY