7 Month Breakout for Lopez Holdings

Entered today on LPZ due to a breakout from a 7-month high.  As shown in the DMI, the up trend is strong; thus, would likely to continue further.  Breakout point is at 6.62, and ATR has been heavily buying at 6.66.  Hopefully they would provide enough support before the stock price goes high.  Prices closed strongly at 6.7.

On the fundamental side, MVP expressed his intent on increasing his hold on MER.  This may be one of the reasons for its bullish stride since LPZ is ready to sell its remaining stake of the power distribution company at a premium.  I think it is somewhere around 300-350 per share or even higher. (related news - Jan 2011).  On the contrary, as I was scouring the net for the latest news on the possible sale, it seems like the Lopez group would still like to hold on to its remaining board seat in Meralco. (news as of May 11 2011).  Interesting, huh?

Anyway, even without the Meralco story, LPZ have solid earnings coming from its subsidiaries such as ABS and FPH (parent of power generator FGEN).  Though for the comparison of earnings between 2009 and 2010, it should be noted that FPH has sold some of its shares of MER to the Pangilinan group (non-recurring income).  For the long term, LPZ can also be a turnaround story as they aim to wipe out their 100 million deficit by this year. 

This is just a momentum play for me now.  Will apply some trend following rules.

Mining Play

I did this before with ORE and was quite successful with it.  Lately, MA has been enjoying substantial increase on its prices due to the news that PX has been interested on one of its mines.  I am tempted to get some MA shares because of this, but as soon as PX had a mysterious drop yesterday, PX seemed like a bargain for me.

I was able to buy near the low at 14.3, with ATR being a major seller this morning.  Despite the positive news on the earnings of PX and the nearing ex-dividend this March, major brokers (foreign) went out and shifted towards AEV.  The MCPI has reportedly adjusted the weights of involved stocks, and AEV greatly benefitted from it.  Meanwhile, ICT and PX bore the decrease in prices due to the lessening of their weights.

I used my "sideline" money in buying PX and some of PCOR (oil play).  I've got to replace this ASAP.  Possible sources would be from AGI (good thing prices went up for a gain) and DMC (slightly negative).

Cliffhanging

Egypt is all over the news because of its own version of a People Power happening against its decades old President, Mubarak.  The Global financial market remains to be shaky as it awaits positive development over the situation.  The PSE has not been exempted from the uneasiness, as the market has dropped down by 88 points.

Surprisingly, my portfolio wasn't greatly affected as most of my holdings remained intact.  MPI, though currently at a negative, did not go down; in fact it showed strength up to the close.  As for my other "loser", FDC, it was bought up by ATR at the close (thus, just a temporary rise).

For today's trade, I was able to sell half of my MPI as it went up to 3.64, transferring risks on to EDC which went down to 5.77.  MPI has been showing strength these past few days, but I really need to start transferring my hold on to the more reliable stocks which I believe in.

For AGI, I should have sold earlier (last Friday) as my indicators already show short term weakness.  Will have to wait again when CCI reaches its top for a sell.  COL has released its latest study on AGI, and has increased its tp for this stock.  The increase in AGI's value is heavily attributed to its gaming business such as that of Resorts World, which has just opened last year.  Industry comparisons also favor AGI over its competitors (i.e. AC).

Watchlist:
One of my favorites: SCC

I should buy once it breaches towards the lower Bollinger bands.  Traded strongly on a weak market yesterday.

The Year 2010

I have been interested on equities ever since I was an undergrad, but it was only until 5 months ago that I have started actual trading.   Before, I was only into speculative trading (during the time of Pan Xenia's Stock Wars and up to my daily stock-trading simulations at work while I was in Japan).  Now that I have invested real money, I try to study technical analysis and monitor the market, gathering tips/rumors from other fellow traders online to help manage my trades. 

Below is the 1 year chart for the PSE index: (credit: ATR Kim Eng)

As can be seen on the graph, 2010 in general has been on the uptrend.  The steepest rise was on September to the beginning of November.  My first trade was only on July 20.  I had been in the Philippines since February, but I had just procrastinated opening an account with Citiseconline.  In fact, I had been procrastinating for more than a year now, even while I was having my short Xmas vacations in the Philippines.  The subprime crash of 2008 had already ended, and it could have been a good time to invest on equities at the start of 2009.

Anyway, going back to the PSEi, the index performed a year-to-date gain of 37.62%.  The index is composed mostly by blue chip companies and other sectoral representatives that could best describe total market performance in the Philippines. 

Since I have only started 5 months ago, I should compare my performance to at least the 6 month gain of the PSEi which is at 24.56%.  The goal of an equity trader is to beat the market, meaning to have higher gains compared that to the index or to any other Mutual fund available.  ATR Kim Eng's Equity fund, which I also have since Dec 2007, reports a YTD (2010) gain of 51.75% (wow!) or a 6 month performance of 26.55%, still higher than the index.

Given the above figures, my performance then shows a dismal rate at only 13.24%.  Actual profit gains (cash outs) are at 12.28%.  Despite the relative low performance, I should bear in mind that my investment cost wasn't all the same from the start.  In fact, I had more than doubled the investment at the 3rd month, which was already too late for the bull run; thus, in effect only diluted the figures.  My computation for my equity performance is basically just dividing the current equity value (or cash outs) divided by the total cost of investment, regardless of the time of additional entry.

Anyway, I would still like to stick with the current figures as my YTD performance, to encourage me more to surpass these levels next year.  These first few months in trading serves as a test-run for my trading system, considering that I am also now doing full time in graduate studies.  At least now, I am able to understand and feel the market; hopefully, leading me on to wiser trades on the following months.

As part of my year-end analysis, I shall list down what I had experienced below:
1.) I started as a short term trader, being able to monitor the market daily, as a bum (not working, but waiting until classes start).  As soon as classes have started, and going on from midterms to finals, I was no longer able to religiously monitor the market.  Thus, I have decided to shift from being a short term trader to a mid-term/long term.  Doing short-term trading while not being able to monitor the market daily would only lead me to losses and/or missing out on swings.

2.) I still have problems in cutting my losses, always hoping that stocks would rebound in a while.  Quite easy on a bull run, but bulls aren't always there.  I have experienced this during the market correction last Nov-Dec, losing around 17% from URC and 9% from DGTL.  If only I was able to define my stops (i.e. -8% in 1 month), then I would have managed to reduce my losses.

3.) I am still practicing with Fundamental and Technical Analyses.  Before I enter a stock, I should at least have studied it well.  "Trade with a Plan".

...
Others to follow.

Cement Stuck

Got into a bull trap with CMT almost a month ago, after buying the stock in response to its long green candle the previous day.  Right now, as the market is consolidating, I have decided to take my loss and hopefully position to a more reliable stock.  I am starting to analyze some financial reports on these companies, and cement stocks like CMT may be as speculative as the mining stocks.  With the bull market today, I would rather place my bets on the usual winners.

Earlier this morning, there was a bomb threat at the PSE building; thus, trading got halted.  I have posted my sale order for CMT at 1.86, then suddenly Asia Sec bought up at the close, from the trading price of 1.81 to 1.88.  I think this had also happened during the past few days as CMT was trading at low volume, but maintained green candles at the close.  Something's cooking in here, but I'd rather stay away from now.  It may be possible that CMT will go high in the coming days, but this may just be because of a jockey.

Meanwhile, my "buy on the news" ORE have reached a max paper gain of 11% on its 3rd day!  Although it has already retracted back at 3.43 at the close.  When I was still monitoring the market this morning, ORE was at the 3.53 level.  It would have stayed that way if only PSE did not resume trading at 1pm hehe. 

Checking on the time sales, looks like JAP has started unloading his ORE.  hmm...  or maybe the weak hands are starting to fall off? ;)  ORE shows a shooting star. :-?

EDC seems to be still in consolidation.  pfffft.

URC seems to be another bull trap for me.  Although at least I got in with the first dip, so so far, not yet too far away from my entry.  Low volume trades put this into a Trade the Range.


Prospects (shift from CMT loss):
SCC - foreigns are still selling (JPMorgan & ATR).  Temporary gains might still be weak.  Trade the Range.
DGTL - I still want to take revenge on this stock. hehehe.  Formed a hangman on today's trade, showing indecisiveness.  It might be up or down for tomorrow.  Macquarie seems to be accumulating.  I am buying on the first dip.

Money in Milk

1 of my professors in grad school this term loves talking about stocks.  He even usually incorporates stock trading into our lessons (Financial Reporting).  Today, he gave an interesting stock tip which would be shunned upon by short term traders due to its illiquidity.  AMC.

As a finance professor who often consults for companies, analyzing balance sheets and cash flows, it is expected that fundamental analysis is his basis on trading stocks.  He showed to us the company's balance sheet, pointing out recurring profits and ZERO debt.  As he says, a company without debt, never goes bankrupt.  Another good reason to buy this stock is due to accumulation of foreign broker namely,"Doyts".

AMC has a life on its own, whether on a bull or a bear market.  Of course, to take advantage of the bull market, this wouldn't be your top pick.  But, most portfolio managers would include stocks such as this to provide support even during bearish times.

Another stock fundamentalists love is DGTL, although for now, it is still currently on a stalemate due to the buying and selling of the foreign brokers.  He pointed out that he also plans to accumulate slowly on this stock.

Other favorites of his include AT, URC and BPI.

The Magic of ALI

A few weeks ago, ALI had a "super discount sale" ,  rumored to be due to human error from a broker at ATR.  Stocks were sold @14, 2 Pesos lower from the ongoing price at around 16 per share.  PSE index had a major pulldown that day because of ALI.  Eventually, ALI pulled back up the following day when it was traded at around 15 during the opening (and even rose further upwards).

After trading back at "normal" levels, ALI had been silently moving towards its upward direction.  Thinking that I should move in back to property stocks, I was able to reposition myself with ALI, albeit on a slightly earlier time.

And so I was a bit sad realizing that I still need to practice more on my buy and sell indicators/strategy.  Since I didn't expect ALI to bounce back upwards as it is still on its RSI high, I had just been monitoring my EDC shares hoping to find a good exit.


My dental appointment was scheduled on this day, so I had no choice but to leave my stocks and hope that nothing bad would happen abruptly.  Today was also a tennis day for me and my friend, so I was only able to go home at around 5pm.

Lo and behold!  I got amazed that ALI had been traded at 18 during closing!  This gives me around 7% paper gain in only 1 day!  And since my picking of ALI yesterday was based mainly on my decision, I felt proud of myself.  (But I think it's really just luck! hehe)up:gucci handbags

BUT... one should not count the golden eggs yet, as this is still just a paper gain.  Going back to the Time Sales, I found out that ALI was trading at 16.9 then jumped to 18 at the close.  The trade started with a cross-sale within S.B. Securities, then lots of brokers participated in the killing.  DBP-Daiwa bought solidly while ATR had cross trades in the millions.

This is a very interesting sight for me, since I still have my shares with me.  The big question is, could I be able to sell at the 18.xx price point?  Target: Lock in on profits, sell @18!

Market Correction, Rolando Mendoza And the ALI Super Sale

Yesterday's tourist bus hostage taking crisis brought about by former police Sr. Inspector Rolando Mendoza, has put the Philippines into the limelight on World News.  It is on a sad note that the situation ended into a tragedy.up:gucci bags

The market closed 82.74 points lower from last time,  a change of -2.29%.  Market consolidation had been expected this week due to having stocks on already overbought conditions.  Alongside with the recent bad news that had happened in the Philippines, most investors either sold down their shares or just took hold, bringing down most stocks into the red.  Market was down 36 points so far...

The big drop came from an unexpected move from broker ATR Kim Eng.  At around 11:54 pm, just minutes away to closing, ALI was still selling @16.08 when suddenly ATR began unloading @14!  1.4 Million shares of ALI had been sold during the pre-close period, an uneventful 15.25% loss for ALI shareholders.  Since ALI is included in the index, this brought about the remaining 40+ points down on PSEi.

The mystery behind this sale is that ALI is a well-performing stock, why sell at a loss?  Fundamentals are strong for most of the property stocks, it is expected that ALI would regain back to the top.  Lucky then for those who were able to buy at such a bargain.

One major theory on this sale is that it was a boo-boo on ATR's part.  With the new PSE trading system, the trader might have pushed the wrong buttons.  Instead of posting a buy, they posted a sale instead.  A costly mistake if ever it was true.

It's a good thing I have already sold my ALI after holding it for a month.  What worries me a bit is on ATR since I have a Mutual Fund (Equity) account with them.  And so I wonder, what the real story is behind the sale.