Took a lot of losses this month as I am now enforcing discipline into my trading plan. Finished the 2 part lecture on Technical Analysis provided by COL. I find it very effective especially the observance of the 1:3 risk reward ratio.
Despite the cut losses, the equity value on my portfolio rose to as high as 6%, mostly thanks to EDC and PX. FDC is also now on the positive region.
Despite my earlier plan to just keep a minimum of 4 stocks to trade, I don't think it is no longer possible for me. Right now, I am holding 8-10 stocks at a time. About 3 of which are my core (AP, EDC, FDC, AMC), while the rest are for momentum plays. PX is a leftover hold, yet gives me significant gain which even reached up to 30%. URC, TA and FLI are my latest stocks and I hope they would not disappoint. AGI has been a laggard, as I was not successful in range trading this stock.
April performance:
Cash: -0.91%
Equity: +5.83%
Showing posts with label AMC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AMC. Show all posts
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Saturday, April 2, 2011
March 2011 Performance
I am now going back closely to my previous high with regard to the amount of my equities. Starting around November, Philippine stocks buckled away from its bullish trend as it underwent consolidation. I even added up on my capital at the start of the year, which in hindsight was not good timing since prices continued to go down.
Mutual fund companies posts an average of around -3% YTD gain. Based on my COL account, my YTD gain is -0.66%, already quite close to break-even. If I am able to maintain this rate, dividend income coming in this April would be able to lead me out of the negative region. This is definitely a relief for me since I have experienced reaching higher losses up to more than 10% during the first 2 months.
As per month-to-month performances, cash earnings went up by 1.23% while my total equity portfolio improved by 2.62%. Below are the list of current stocks that I have:
Core: (Long term investment based on growth potentials and that are heavily traded)
AP
EDC - after consolidating for many months. It seems 2nd quarter would be EDC's time to shine.
Value: (Usually less liquid stocks but has growth potentials or is extremely undervalued)
AMC
FDC - I plan to accumulate more at 4.2 levels. The firm would at one point, need to jack up its stock prices before its SRO. They need to increase their float before November 2011, or else tax incentives as a listed company would be forfeited. There are also plans for East West banks IPO this year.
Speculative:
PCOR - Bought this due to current prices of oil being high. Unfortunately bought at a high, and I'm still not sure if it was the right thing to do during the time. PCOR is more on oil distribution. Could've explored more into oil drilling business instead (i.e. PERC)
PX - Bought this due to rumors on the PX and MA deals. PX was relatively less risky as compared to MA, although I think MA should benefit more from the deal. Latest news reveal that if ever the deal would push through, PX would get 60% while MA would get 40% on their deal on MA's mining rights. Capital expenses would be provided by PX though.
Swing:
AGI - Trading at a range from 11.3 to 12. I'll take advantage of it in order to lessen my losses.
Mutual fund companies posts an average of around -3% YTD gain. Based on my COL account, my YTD gain is -0.66%, already quite close to break-even. If I am able to maintain this rate, dividend income coming in this April would be able to lead me out of the negative region. This is definitely a relief for me since I have experienced reaching higher losses up to more than 10% during the first 2 months.
As per month-to-month performances, cash earnings went up by 1.23% while my total equity portfolio improved by 2.62%. Below are the list of current stocks that I have:
Core: (Long term investment based on growth potentials and that are heavily traded)
AP
EDC - after consolidating for many months. It seems 2nd quarter would be EDC's time to shine.
Value: (Usually less liquid stocks but has growth potentials or is extremely undervalued)
AMC
FDC - I plan to accumulate more at 4.2 levels. The firm would at one point, need to jack up its stock prices before its SRO. They need to increase their float before November 2011, or else tax incentives as a listed company would be forfeited. There are also plans for East West banks IPO this year.
Speculative:
PCOR - Bought this due to current prices of oil being high. Unfortunately bought at a high, and I'm still not sure if it was the right thing to do during the time. PCOR is more on oil distribution. Could've explored more into oil drilling business instead (i.e. PERC)
PX - Bought this due to rumors on the PX and MA deals. PX was relatively less risky as compared to MA, although I think MA should benefit more from the deal. Latest news reveal that if ever the deal would push through, PX would get 60% while MA would get 40% on their deal on MA's mining rights. Capital expenses would be provided by PX though.
Swing:
AGI - Trading at a range from 11.3 to 12. I'll take advantage of it in order to lessen my losses.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
February 2011
Been busy these past weeks due to midterm exams. At least for now, I am into longer terms of trading since guarding the price movements of stocks everyday is just time-consuming.
Ms. Market at the start of March generated positive gains in my portfolio. My February month-end report should have been on a stalemate (could've been more negative) if not for the last minute rise in prices. Portfolio moved up by 4.14% despite actual cash loss at -0.75%. My only sale trade for February was on the repositioning of my losing MPI stock, which I placed into PCOR for some oil play.
Here is a quick rundown my current holdings:
Core:
AP (22%) - I'm very happy now with AP because of its very very strong earnings, leading to generous cash dividends with an ex-div date this March. I love its 1.32 per share, a 4.4% dividend yield!
EDC (21.5%) - Still struggling with this one as current prices are still below my cost. Earnings report scheduled to come out this March 25!
Momentum Play:
AGI (16.8%) - Was able to average down once, bringing down my cost.
DMC (12.14%) - Seems to be stronger than AGI due to strong developments with Maynilad and DMCI contracts.
PX ( 11.39%) - Talks with MA/MAB for some mining projects plus an increase in Gold price led me to this decision of buying this stock.
PCOR (5.18%) - Bought this stock for some oil play. Market generally went down due to crisis in the Midwest, which may affect oil supply in the future.
Long Term/Dividend Play:
AMC (6.36%) - Despite growth in revenues and dividends in March, this stock still sticks around the 13 peso range.
FDC (4.47%) - Quite a shame for this stock as it went down as much as near -30%! I'm still not quite sure if I should buy more of this, perhaps if there are still available funds to infuse. Probably needs more research on the sugar industry, East West Banking (possible IPO), and the secondary offer of shares in order to increase its outstanding shares.
Ms. Market at the start of March generated positive gains in my portfolio. My February month-end report should have been on a stalemate (could've been more negative) if not for the last minute rise in prices. Portfolio moved up by 4.14% despite actual cash loss at -0.75%. My only sale trade for February was on the repositioning of my losing MPI stock, which I placed into PCOR for some oil play.
Here is a quick rundown my current holdings:
Core:
AP (22%) - I'm very happy now with AP because of its very very strong earnings, leading to generous cash dividends with an ex-div date this March. I love its 1.32 per share, a 4.4% dividend yield!
EDC (21.5%) - Still struggling with this one as current prices are still below my cost. Earnings report scheduled to come out this March 25!
Momentum Play:
AGI (16.8%) - Was able to average down once, bringing down my cost.
DMC (12.14%) - Seems to be stronger than AGI due to strong developments with Maynilad and DMCI contracts.
PX ( 11.39%) - Talks with MA/MAB for some mining projects plus an increase in Gold price led me to this decision of buying this stock.
PCOR (5.18%) - Bought this stock for some oil play. Market generally went down due to crisis in the Midwest, which may affect oil supply in the future.
Long Term/Dividend Play:
AMC (6.36%) - Despite growth in revenues and dividends in March, this stock still sticks around the 13 peso range.
FDC (4.47%) - Quite a shame for this stock as it went down as much as near -30%! I'm still not quite sure if I should buy more of this, perhaps if there are still available funds to infuse. Probably needs more research on the sugar industry, East West Banking (possible IPO), and the secondary offer of shares in order to increase its outstanding shares.
Saturday, January 29, 2011
After Another Major Correction
And so FDC disappointed me badly, currently having a 24% loss (!!). The big price drop was due to the ongoing market correction, and was pushed further by the retraction of FDC in stock offerings due to the low price (which ironically made it lower). I'm still holding this for the long term, albeit recognizing it as a stuck for now. I still believe it is a fundamentally good stock, however, with its low float, I'm not sure when will it start going up again. I am actually tempted to buy more to average down however, I am still studying some other options (stocks), hopefully to regain short term losses.
Some notes:
DMC- Director Sid buys at around 32.6, so it should be safe at those levels. Probably average down at that price in case it goes lower again.
AMC- Milk prices are projected to go up.
AGI- c/o MEG is currently looking good at this down market. Seems like property stocks are slowly going back in play.
Watchlist:
PCOR- with oil prices looking to go up, this stock may be cheap at these levels. Plus good volume on the past 2 days. Buy at 14.37.
Some notes:
DMC- Director Sid buys at around 32.6, so it should be safe at those levels. Probably average down at that price in case it goes lower again.
AMC- Milk prices are projected to go up.
AGI- c/o MEG is currently looking good at this down market. Seems like property stocks are slowly going back in play.
Watchlist:
PCOR- with oil prices looking to go up, this stock may be cheap at these levels. Plus good volume on the past 2 days. Buy at 14.37.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Bumpy Ride Ahead
From now on, I shall classify my holdings accdg to my investment plans.
Yesterday and today was bloody as hell. I wasn't able to monitor today as I went out to play tennis instead hehe. PSEi now in almost flat 4000.
Core (Long term)
AP - based on the latest candlestick, it might go down more. RSI shows nearing oversold conditions. Trade for profit at 28.76?
EDC - Range trading for now.
AMC - I rarely monitor this hehe.
Momentum
AGI - If it shows strength tomorrow, it should be a good sign as it would bounce from its lowest RSI, and will confirm reversal, based on the hammer candlestick.
DMC - Break down. May still continue descent until it gets oversold.
MPI - Must remain above its support at 3.86
watchlist
SCC - buy at 180. Bounce back at 178.
LND - buy at 1.46. Stop at 1.26
Yesterday and today was bloody as hell. I wasn't able to monitor today as I went out to play tennis instead hehe. PSEi now in almost flat 4000.
Core (Long term)
AP - based on the latest candlestick, it might go down more. RSI shows nearing oversold conditions. Trade for profit at 28.76?
EDC - Range trading for now.
AMC - I rarely monitor this hehe.
Momentum
AGI - If it shows strength tomorrow, it should be a good sign as it would bounce from its lowest RSI, and will confirm reversal, based on the hammer candlestick.
DMC - Break down. May still continue descent until it gets oversold.
MPI - Must remain above its support at 3.86
watchlist
SCC - buy at 180. Bounce back at 178.
LND - buy at 1.46. Stop at 1.26
Monday, November 15, 2010
Consolidation
The 2nd week of November proved to be a bloody one as the long awaited correction has finally come. I held on mostly to my stocks since I was still busy with the midterm exams. By the weekend, my total portfolio went down to about 5% from last month's equity. Not bad, I guess since I now have a diversified portfolio, albeit a bit shamefully with 6 stocks hehe. Most of which was due to some "stuck" situations leading to a hold. I do hope I could get out quickly, to organize my portfolio to a hold of up to 3 core stocks only.
My biggest losers were EDC and URC with around 10% loss each. EDC has been reported to be fundamentally good, despite consolidating for 2 months now. As for URC, no news from it yet, but I think it wouldn't be able to rise back again up for my gain. I plan to shift it towards a moving stock, perhaps like SCC; thereby, readying myself for a loss.
Good thing I was able to sell my ORE (although not all of them), before the rundown. This gave me a chance to buy DMC at a low (but not so low). On the 2nd day of market decline, I thought it was already a good buy. Only to realize days after that the correction is not yet finished. DMC went to a low of -8% last weekend.
Today, market produced green candles, although with low volume. I guess we're still on a consolidation phase, but at least this may signal a near reversal in the future. This may be a reaction to Pacquiao's win over Margarito yesterday as local investors have been on a good mood. :) Or, let's just say a lot have already been buying, thinking it's time to shop for lows. If on Wednesday, the market would pick up again, then that would be a good signal for the rebound.
From a -5% month-to-date loss last weekend to a -1.5% loss today, I'd say my portfolio is still doing good.
A recap on my most recent trades:
a.) AP --> AGI : I got out of AP thinking of a MACD cross at the top. Only to find out that AP's reign is not over yet. In fact, AP has been one of the few stocks still left standing despite the correction. I think next time, it is still better to wait for the cross, then sell on strength.
b.) ORE --> DMC: ORE still seems to be a good hold, however with the ongoing correction, I did the right thing of selling on profit and moving to a "cheaper stock". ORE didn't have a selldown yet, while DMC went down from a near-40 to a 35.
c.) DGTL: I am comfortably positioned on this Telco, especially with a very positive 3Q earnings report. While TEL and GLO went down, DGTL seems to pick up the pace for the industry. Definitely a turnaround story. Unfortunately, I just have a relatively minor hold on this stock.
d.) EDC : It's a bit hard to trade this stock for the long term. I guess it is not yet ripe for the year. It usually gets a parabolic rise, then consolidates roughly. So far, fundamentalists have a good say on this stock (now that it's on its lows), so I'm still holding on for now.
e.) URC : I will just see how far it could gain on the next few days, then will surely transfer to a better moving stock. Seems like URC has been on its high now at the 40ish range.
PD:
EDC- 23.5% (5% paper loss)
DMC- 17.4% ( break even)
URC- 16.3% ( 9% paper loss)
AGI- 15.4% (3% paper loss)
DGTL- 12.7% (2.2% paper gain)
AMC- 9.6% (1% paper loss)
ORE- 3.7% ( 19% paper gain)
cash - 2%
My biggest losers were EDC and URC with around 10% loss each. EDC has been reported to be fundamentally good, despite consolidating for 2 months now. As for URC, no news from it yet, but I think it wouldn't be able to rise back again up for my gain. I plan to shift it towards a moving stock, perhaps like SCC; thereby, readying myself for a loss.
Good thing I was able to sell my ORE (although not all of them), before the rundown. This gave me a chance to buy DMC at a low (but not so low). On the 2nd day of market decline, I thought it was already a good buy. Only to realize days after that the correction is not yet finished. DMC went to a low of -8% last weekend.
Today, market produced green candles, although with low volume. I guess we're still on a consolidation phase, but at least this may signal a near reversal in the future. This may be a reaction to Pacquiao's win over Margarito yesterday as local investors have been on a good mood. :) Or, let's just say a lot have already been buying, thinking it's time to shop for lows. If on Wednesday, the market would pick up again, then that would be a good signal for the rebound.
From a -5% month-to-date loss last weekend to a -1.5% loss today, I'd say my portfolio is still doing good.
A recap on my most recent trades:
a.) AP --> AGI : I got out of AP thinking of a MACD cross at the top. Only to find out that AP's reign is not over yet. In fact, AP has been one of the few stocks still left standing despite the correction. I think next time, it is still better to wait for the cross, then sell on strength.
b.) ORE --> DMC: ORE still seems to be a good hold, however with the ongoing correction, I did the right thing of selling on profit and moving to a "cheaper stock". ORE didn't have a selldown yet, while DMC went down from a near-40 to a 35.
c.) DGTL: I am comfortably positioned on this Telco, especially with a very positive 3Q earnings report. While TEL and GLO went down, DGTL seems to pick up the pace for the industry. Definitely a turnaround story. Unfortunately, I just have a relatively minor hold on this stock.
d.) EDC : It's a bit hard to trade this stock for the long term. I guess it is not yet ripe for the year. It usually gets a parabolic rise, then consolidates roughly. So far, fundamentalists have a good say on this stock (now that it's on its lows), so I'm still holding on for now.
e.) URC : I will just see how far it could gain on the next few days, then will surely transfer to a better moving stock. Seems like URC has been on its high now at the 40ish range.
PD:
EDC- 23.5% (5% paper loss)
DMC- 17.4% ( break even)
URC- 16.3% ( 9% paper loss)
AGI- 15.4% (3% paper loss)
DGTL- 12.7% (2.2% paper gain)
AMC- 9.6% (1% paper loss)
ORE- 3.7% ( 19% paper gain)
cash - 2%
Monday, November 8, 2010
1 More Exam To Go...
ORE
Beware for a shooting star has been spotted. JAP is on the buy at an average of 3.89. I wonder if my exit should be immediate, or at least would let JAP gain some points before selling earlier than him. Currently thinking to sell at 3.95 (today's close at 3.81) after today's high at 4. 3.95 got a volume trade of about 5%.
EDC
Waiting for a breakout… really now.
URC
Trading sideways
DGTL
Sun Cellular subscribers surpass 16M. I knew it that this stock was going to be worth investing prior to the quarterly reports. Now with TEL down, GLO reporting saturated growth, it's time for DGTL to shine! Too bad, I was just scared to increase my hold on DGTL. I treated this the same way like AMC. For the long hold.
AMC
zzzzzzzz
Beware for a shooting star has been spotted. JAP is on the buy at an average of 3.89. I wonder if my exit should be immediate, or at least would let JAP gain some points before selling earlier than him. Currently thinking to sell at 3.95 (today's close at 3.81) after today's high at 4. 3.95 got a volume trade of about 5%.
EDC
Waiting for a breakout… really now.
URC
Trading sideways
DGTL
Sun Cellular subscribers surpass 16M. I knew it that this stock was going to be worth investing prior to the quarterly reports. Now with TEL down, GLO reporting saturated growth, it's time for DGTL to shine! Too bad, I was just scared to increase my hold on DGTL. I treated this the same way like AMC. For the long hold.
AMC
zzzzzzzz
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Midterms & October Stats
I'm currently busy with my midterm exams at Grad school. Hopefully next week, I can be more relaxed. Come to think of it, only 1 month left before the finals! Time does pass by so fast! Just a few days ago, I have turned 26!
I am now trading in the mid-long term due to "busyness". One stock that I have held for a long time (more than 1 month) is EDC. During September, I was hoping that momentum would shift towards the energy sector, and so I had EDC, FGEN and AP. I was able to swing trade on FGEN, and I have been very happy with my AP (30+% gain). The only stock that I regret holding too long was with EDC. I should've sold during its decline on the MACD. Up to now, it is still consolidating. I am not yet sure on when would be its next rise.
DGTL is still trending sideways. There seems to be a wall at 1.64. Currently on the lower downtrend of the MACD, I hope it rises soon. I am hoping 3rd quarter earnings would be favorable; leading to its push.
URC. Seems like this baby is now awake. Too bad I wasn't able to increase my holdings @ around 44. After consolidating for 3 weeks, now it seems to be on its rise. There is a notable increase in volume.
ORE. After unloading my AP, ORE is now top performing stock in my portfolio. This is a jockeyed + "buy on the news" mining stock, I am a bit anxious on how to exit, but so far still on the uptrend. Ended today with a small hammer though.
AMC. My long term stock. Still waiting for its parabolic rise. Still flat for now :p
October Recap:
Okay, so for this month I have doubled my cash investment on stocks from last month. My actual cash earnings is only at 1.13%, but this is mainly because I have held more onto my stocks for a medium hold. In fact, I have just sold my AP with 33% gain a few days ago, but that would already be included into the November stats. Factoring in a bigger portfolio, my equity equivalence gain registered at 6.78%
Okay, so for this month I have doubled my cash investment on stocks from last month. My actual cash earnings is only at 1.13%, but this is mainly because I have held more onto my stocks for a medium hold. In fact, I have just sold my AP with 33% gain a few days ago, but that would already be included into the November stats. Factoring in a bigger portfolio, my equity equivalence gain registered at 6.78%
Now with a bigger portfolio, I tend to buy more stocks which should not be the case. I should try to maintain at least 4 stocks only.
I have also tested some trading tactics. Long green candles does not ensure a good buy. Always check for volume.
A long incoherent post for today. Just had my 2nd exam for the midterms. 2 more to come. At least I get to rest a bit. :)
Monday, October 11, 2010
New Challengers
Prospects:
Missed the ICT train today. Seems like resting for a bigger push. Bounced back down after meeting its first resistance.
MPI completes a dark cloud cover plus a MACD sell. Currently signaling a downtrend.
SCC ended with a shooting star. Let's wait at 152.39.
PD:
Bought URC at 45.25 (buy signal from CSO), buying the dips after a long candle. 1st support from the pivot point was correct, being the lowest trade for the day. Candlestick forms somewhat like a harami, but still maintaining on the top half of the previous day's long candle. Buy signal from CSO, was confirmed from a MACD buy and a bullish BOS. This trade is meant for the short term-medium term only.
AP continuing on its ascent, faced the upper resistance at 26.31. Swing traders would have sold along with doyts. The stock ended backing down further from the lower resistance @25.23. Currently closed at 24.8.
EDC is still having support from foreign buys (doyts and CLSA) although JPMorgan was selling. Still a bit 50-50 on unloading tomorrow.
CMT on a lull. I hope I wouldn't face a cut-loss here. It should hold at 1.8 then hopefully will shoot up breaking out at 2. :P
Can't resist, bought some milk today :)
Composition: (Oh no, I am now holding 5 stocks.)
AMC - 12%
AP - 18.4%
CMT - 13.5%
EDC - 32.7%
URC- 22.7%
Today, I have increased my cash investment for another 25%. Greedy me. Well, this is to give way to my long term plans on certain stocks, retaining my cash investments for short term trading.
Missed the ICT train today. Seems like resting for a bigger push. Bounced back down after meeting its first resistance.
MPI completes a dark cloud cover plus a MACD sell. Currently signaling a downtrend.
SCC ended with a shooting star. Let's wait at 152.39.
PD:
Bought URC at 45.25 (buy signal from CSO), buying the dips after a long candle. 1st support from the pivot point was correct, being the lowest trade for the day. Candlestick forms somewhat like a harami, but still maintaining on the top half of the previous day's long candle. Buy signal from CSO, was confirmed from a MACD buy and a bullish BOS. This trade is meant for the short term-medium term only.
AP continuing on its ascent, faced the upper resistance at 26.31. Swing traders would have sold along with doyts. The stock ended backing down further from the lower resistance @25.23. Currently closed at 24.8.
EDC is still having support from foreign buys (doyts and CLSA) although JPMorgan was selling. Still a bit 50-50 on unloading tomorrow.
CMT on a lull. I hope I wouldn't face a cut-loss here. It should hold at 1.8 then hopefully will shoot up breaking out at 2. :P
Can't resist, bought some milk today :)
Composition: (Oh no, I am now holding 5 stocks.)
AMC - 12%
AP - 18.4%
CMT - 13.5%
EDC - 32.7%
URC- 22.7%
Today, I have increased my cash investment for another 25%. Greedy me. Well, this is to give way to my long term plans on certain stocks, retaining my cash investments for short term trading.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Money in Milk
1 of my professors in grad school this term loves talking about stocks. He even usually incorporates stock trading into our lessons (Financial Reporting). Today, he gave an interesting stock tip which would be shunned upon by short term traders due to its illiquidity. AMC.
As a finance professor who often consults for companies, analyzing balance sheets and cash flows, it is expected that fundamental analysis is his basis on trading stocks. He showed to us the company's balance sheet, pointing out recurring profits and ZERO debt. As he says, a company without debt, never goes bankrupt. Another good reason to buy this stock is due to accumulation of foreign broker namely,"Doyts".
AMC has a life on its own, whether on a bull or a bear market. Of course, to take advantage of the bull market, this wouldn't be your top pick. But, most portfolio managers would include stocks such as this to provide support even during bearish times.
Another stock fundamentalists love is DGTL, although for now, it is still currently on a stalemate due to the buying and selling of the foreign brokers. He pointed out that he also plans to accumulate slowly on this stock.
Other favorites of his include AT, URC and BPI.
As a finance professor who often consults for companies, analyzing balance sheets and cash flows, it is expected that fundamental analysis is his basis on trading stocks. He showed to us the company's balance sheet, pointing out recurring profits and ZERO debt. As he says, a company without debt, never goes bankrupt. Another good reason to buy this stock is due to accumulation of foreign broker namely,"Doyts".
AMC has a life on its own, whether on a bull or a bear market. Of course, to take advantage of the bull market, this wouldn't be your top pick. But, most portfolio managers would include stocks such as this to provide support even during bearish times.
Another stock fundamentalists love is DGTL, although for now, it is still currently on a stalemate due to the buying and selling of the foreign brokers. He pointed out that he also plans to accumulate slowly on this stock.
Other favorites of his include AT, URC and BPI.
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