2011 Year End Report

From last year's 12.37% gain (5 months), my stock portfolio only managed to sneak in a disappointing 2.06% YTD gain.  It was during September when Euro debt fears affected the global markets that my 11.49% YTD went down to a -2.41% loss in just one month.  Prices bounced back a little by December.

At the start of the year, I have positioned myself into AP, EDC, TA and FDC as my long term stock holdings.  Unfortunately, the power industry rested from its bullish run after the 2009 financial crash.  I did gain from EDC until I sold all on May when it broke its moving average supports.  My "Power play" was a bit early. As for FDC, it delayed its follow-on offering due to unfavorable market conditions.  The Euro Debt scare is still very much alive, and it pulls down overall market sentiment despite good Philippine fundamentals.

My best earners were (more than 10%): URC (21%), PX (19%), FOOD (19%), LC (52%).
Dividend givers (cash more than 1k): URC (~4.6%), EDC (~2.8%), AP (~4.66%), PXP (in the form of shares from PX)
Worst losses (more than 10%): MPI (-13%), PCOR (-12%), LPZ (-11.6%), LC (-18.7%), PX (-13.7%), WPI (-41.8%), ELI (-13.4%), MEG (-11.8%)

I have been using more Technical Analysis lately, and the good thing is, I have managed to improve in the money management department.  Cutting losses is hard to do, but it's best to cut losses early than to realize it when it's already too late.  By the middle of the year, I have started using Ichimoku Kinkou Hyou, aka kumo (cloud) trading.  It's a visual guide for me to determine supports and resistances, and to see trend reversals and breakouts.

I used to try and limit my holdings to just a few stocks, but given a lot of chart breakouts lately, I diversified into a lot.  Especially during the time the PSE was moving sideways.  I may reconsider again now that we are on quasi-bullish mode (a little more to confirm).  I also try to practice turtle trading, for which I buy a position and take some profits when targets have been reached, leaving behind some shares for further run-up.

This is the whole pie of my trading portfolio (23% of my whole Investment Port):

Seems like the theme for my trading portfolio would be power, oil and mining.  I'm still hoping FDC would start going up this first quarter of the year.




My Investment Portfolio is divided into:

Equities (66%)
-BDO Equity Fund (33%) :  -2.13%   * was caught in a bull trap when I entered last May.
-COL trading account (23%): +2.06%  * August dip led my once YTD 12% down to a negative in just a month.  My long term stocks actually kicked in a little bit late, now at the start of 2012.
-ATR Mutual Fund (10%):   -1.6% *My very first investment 4 years ago which is actually on a gain of 41%


Bonds (18%) 
-BDO Bond Fund (18%): +5.17% *Instead of investing on balanced funds, you can allocate your own through Bond and Equity Funds.

Savings Account (16%) *Still on the process of transferring funds from here to other investments.  Should only leave money here for liquidity purposes.

Overall, my portfolio is still intact.  I may not have earned a lot this year, but I can say that I have improved greatly.  What is important is that I now have my own trading system for Technical Analysis.  I will still stick with fundamentals especially for long term "conviction" holds.

After Another Major Correction

And so FDC disappointed me badly, currently having a 24% loss (!!).  The big price drop was due to the ongoing market correction, and was pushed further by the retraction of FDC in stock offerings due to the low price (which ironically made it lower).  I'm still holding this for the long term, albeit recognizing it as a stuck for now.  I still believe it is a fundamentally good stock, however, with its low float, I'm not sure when will it start going up again.  I am actually tempted to buy more to average down however, I am still studying some other options (stocks), hopefully to regain short term losses.

Some notes:
DMC- Director Sid buys at around 32.6, so it should be safe at those levels.  Probably average down at that price in case it goes lower again.
AMC- Milk prices are projected to go up.
AGI- c/o MEG is currently looking good at this down market.  Seems like property stocks are slowly going back in play.

Watchlist:
PCOR- with oil prices looking to go up, this stock may be cheap at these levels.  Plus good volume on the past 2 days.  Buy at 14.37.

A Look on AGI

CLSA (323) bought up at the open and was followed by the other foreign brokers.  Both MACD and DMI generated BUY signals with some support on the volume.  ParabolicSAR shows that the stock is just starting on its uptrend, as confirmed by the change of trend in the DMI chart. 

MEG, one of AGI's subsidiaries had been pointed out to be among those involved in year-end window dressing, so caveat on the rise in prices of related stocks.  Also, AGI has been treading on unchartered territory this year, as it has been consistently gaining new highs.

But so far for me, buy signals with support from foreign investors is good for me.

PD:  I have AGI at a cost of 11.58 and has been holding this stock for less than 2 months already.

SCC, Good to Go, Sir!

With a DOW-J closing at +48 last weekend, PSEi has been on an extended rally and remains bullish until now.  Index gained 70pts today and is already near the 4000 mark.  This can be easily broken by tomorrow as the Philippine stock market is currently enjoying a positive momentum.up:gucci handbags

MEG is a strong winner today, having its stock and 2 warrants included in the top10 gainers.  I saw MEGW2 bottom out at 1.10 this morning, too bad I wasn't ready to enter into new grounds yet.  MEGW1 and MEGW2 closed at 1.3x levels while MEG is strong at 2.3.

I have been busy handling my 2 stocks this morning: SCC and EDC.  EDC had a gap up from 5.26 to 5.31 until its ascent to 5.47.  As soon as I sensed the decline of prices, I was able to sell my shares @5.44 (9:44am) having a favorable 10.26% net profit.  A shakeout occurred making EDC reach 3.35 before going back up again towards the end, closing at 5.5.

I plan to re-enter in EDC allotting 25% @5.34 and 50% @5.27.  Buy during 10am onwards.

I remain bullish with my SCC despite having a shakeout with the price dipping towards 137.  During the shakeout, I was able to buy 60 shares at the first drop at 140, then another 40 shares at 137.  At around 1030am, it went regaining back up to the close at 141.9.

I am hoping for a gap up tomorrow, as the MACD signals a buy for SCC.  Will see if it could breach the 145 mark by tomorrow.  I plan to sell my first 200 shares at around 145, then re-enter at 136, if able.