2011 Year End Report

From last year's 12.37% gain (5 months), my stock portfolio only managed to sneak in a disappointing 2.06% YTD gain.  It was during September when Euro debt fears affected the global markets that my 11.49% YTD went down to a -2.41% loss in just one month.  Prices bounced back a little by December.

At the start of the year, I have positioned myself into AP, EDC, TA and FDC as my long term stock holdings.  Unfortunately, the power industry rested from its bullish run after the 2009 financial crash.  I did gain from EDC until I sold all on May when it broke its moving average supports.  My "Power play" was a bit early. As for FDC, it delayed its follow-on offering due to unfavorable market conditions.  The Euro Debt scare is still very much alive, and it pulls down overall market sentiment despite good Philippine fundamentals.

My best earners were (more than 10%): URC (21%), PX (19%), FOOD (19%), LC (52%).
Dividend givers (cash more than 1k): URC (~4.6%), EDC (~2.8%), AP (~4.66%), PXP (in the form of shares from PX)
Worst losses (more than 10%): MPI (-13%), PCOR (-12%), LPZ (-11.6%), LC (-18.7%), PX (-13.7%), WPI (-41.8%), ELI (-13.4%), MEG (-11.8%)

I have been using more Technical Analysis lately, and the good thing is, I have managed to improve in the money management department.  Cutting losses is hard to do, but it's best to cut losses early than to realize it when it's already too late.  By the middle of the year, I have started using Ichimoku Kinkou Hyou, aka kumo (cloud) trading.  It's a visual guide for me to determine supports and resistances, and to see trend reversals and breakouts.

I used to try and limit my holdings to just a few stocks, but given a lot of chart breakouts lately, I diversified into a lot.  Especially during the time the PSE was moving sideways.  I may reconsider again now that we are on quasi-bullish mode (a little more to confirm).  I also try to practice turtle trading, for which I buy a position and take some profits when targets have been reached, leaving behind some shares for further run-up.

This is the whole pie of my trading portfolio (23% of my whole Investment Port):

Seems like the theme for my trading portfolio would be power, oil and mining.  I'm still hoping FDC would start going up this first quarter of the year.




My Investment Portfolio is divided into:

Equities (66%)
-BDO Equity Fund (33%) :  -2.13%   * was caught in a bull trap when I entered last May.
-COL trading account (23%): +2.06%  * August dip led my once YTD 12% down to a negative in just a month.  My long term stocks actually kicked in a little bit late, now at the start of 2012.
-ATR Mutual Fund (10%):   -1.6% *My very first investment 4 years ago which is actually on a gain of 41%


Bonds (18%) 
-BDO Bond Fund (18%): +5.17% *Instead of investing on balanced funds, you can allocate your own through Bond and Equity Funds.

Savings Account (16%) *Still on the process of transferring funds from here to other investments.  Should only leave money here for liquidity purposes.

Overall, my portfolio is still intact.  I may not have earned a lot this year, but I can say that I have improved greatly.  What is important is that I now have my own trading system for Technical Analysis.  I will still stick with fundamentals especially for long term "conviction" holds.

June 2011 Performance

June was a rollercoaster ride as stocks went down then came back up, retracing from a slightly downward channel.  Cash out profits actually came from cash dividends based on May's ex-dates.   Good thing these dividends were bigger than my losses for the month of June.  These losses primarily were due to AT.  Ironically, it was a bear trap as AT bullied itself through becoming one of the current flavors in the market nowadays.  I nearly did the same thing with PX, fortunately I wasn't that fast enough to cut my losses yet.  PX and AT rose and broke some new highs at the end of this month.

Halfway through the month, my portfolio was at a negative diminishing all gains up to the beginning of the year.  Thankfully, there was a technical rebound bringing back my gains; and hopefully, creating a new bull session after breaking out of the channel.

My portfolio grew around 2.11% from last month, lower from May's performance of 6% (best month so far).  Anyway, a gain is a gain.

My YTD (Year to date) performance compared to the PSEindex and my mutual fund (ATR Kim Eng) is as follows:
ScIoN Fund:   4.92%
PSE Index:      1.15%
ATR KimEng: 0.61%

Pretty much very nice to see since I could somewhat say I have "beaten the market"... for now. :D  But I do know a lot more people who has more impressive portfolio gains ranging from the 20s up to near 100% gain (undiversified).

My current portfolio composition:

June
AP	22.9%
FDC	12.7%
TA	9.4%
LC	8.9%
PX	8.7%
URC	6.4%
LPZ	6.3%
MPI	3.5%
OV	3.5%
SCC	3.3%
Exposure	85.8%

As for Sector composition:
Oil & Energy: 39.09%
Mining: 17.68%
Holdings: 22.5%
Food: 6.4%
Cash: 14.2%

May 2011 Performance

I'm getting the hang of using excel and so I hope that my posts and record-keeping will be more organized.  I had 14 trades for the month of May, quite a lot for a month I guess.  Well, I really had the time to trade since it's our summer break.

Month to month performance:

Equity rose by 6%.  

1.68% of it were realized through cash.

For what matters most is my YTD (Year to Date) Performance in which I reinvested all my gains from last year:

Realized gains is at 2.88%.

Equity at 2.76%.

--> Equity percentage being lower than the realized gain, means that my portfolio is a bit down due to the currently sideways market.

Composition of stocks

AP	21.0%	-2.38%
FDC	13.0%	-1.61%
TA	9.7%	-14.86%	SRO shares not yet included which would reduce the loss.
LC	9.1%	6.13%
PX	8.9%	-0.94%
URC	8.8%	14.42%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
AT	6.8%	1.19%
LPZ	6.5%	-2.24%
SCC	3.4%	-4.43%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
Exposure	87.1%

 

 Remaining 12.9% is Cash which is pretty much standard for me as this is the allocated portion for my "revolving fund".  The colored figures on the right is the actual standing of my holdings, whether it is up or on the negative.

The next table shows my exposure with respect to industry.

Power	24.4%
AP	21%
SCC	3.4%
Oil	9.7%
TA	9.7%
Mining	24.8%
LC	9.1%
PX	8.9%
AT	6.8%
Holdings	19.4%
FDC	13.0%
LPZ	6.5%
Commodities
URC	8.8%

  Shows that I am now a bit heavy on Mining and Power which when combined takes half of my portfolio.  I was able to get out of certain stocks which I held for a long time.  Most of my current stocks are relatively new ones, and that explains why most are in the red -- due to slight correction.  I got shaked out of EDC, which was one of my core stocks.  Unfortunately for me, it was just a bear trap when it touched 6.3s going back up to as high as 6.8.

I can say I am more confident with my portfolio as compared to before.  All thanks to technical analysis and some trend following pointers I have learned.  Looking forward to the coming days!

Picks of the Week [May 30-June 3]

My choices for last week were BEL and AT.  However, due to the general slump of last week's index these 2 stocks also followed in the decrease of stock prices.  BEL for last week was more of a "cautious buy" since there have been no breakouts yet.  During the first 2 days of trading, prices went back to support level; thus, no buy orders were made.

As for AT, I made a mistake interpreting the chart.  My labeling of a "bullish flag" was incorrect, and should have just been a range trade.  As a result, I entered at a slight high of 17.70, instead of just waiting at a lower price near 17.21.  Good thing I entered with just a small position.

For this week, I only have 1 pick and it is PX.  With the upcoming stock dividend in terms of new PPC (Philex Petroleum) shares and a breakout for a new high w/ volume, this is definitely a top pick for me.  I entered with a small position because I felt I was a bit late, even buying at the close.  I guess that's the price to pay with holding a lot of stocks (more or less 10), gives difficulty in terms of monitoring.  Since this is a strong buy for me, I am still waiting for dips near 20.  I just saw the 10 year chart and wow, in hindsight, PX has been a very good investment through the years!

For this week, I tried using the weekly charts instead of just the dailies.  This would be a great exercise for me to not only be dependent on daily charts.  Besides, if I am going to speculate for 1 week, it makes more sense to use the weeklies.

And since I had some sort of trouble monitoring all my current holdings plus waiting for "promising" stocks, this time around, I'll just concentrate first with what I already have.

SELL
EDC- sell on strength.  slower upward channel after breaking UT. RST at 7.17 but might fall down to 5.67. [sell at 6.52 or 6.38]
SCC - correction- downward channel .  sell at RST at 222.26 or at least 214.11. Possible to go down further

HOLD
AP- downward channel to sideways since Nov 10. Range trade SPT at 25.86, lighten at 32.7.  Major SPT at 23.45 (130SMA). 
FDC- major RST at 7.7 (old high). UT still intact and in line with 130SMA.  Start buying if it reaches at least 4.8.  Weak DMI (+)
URC- potential cup and handle. major RST at 46.9 (high). SPT at 65 SMA at 37.79.

Strong BUY
LC- strong DMI (+).  cautiously buy at .78 (dips).  SPT at .74; RST at .93
PX - strong DMI (+).  breakout from new high.  buy near 20 SPT.

Cautious BUY
AT - sideways to up.  R1: 17.68; R2: 20.17.  major SPT at 14.86.  wait for breakout to buy (hammer and buy MACD signal). 
LPZ - UT intact.  retesting major RST 6.6. DMI gaining strength (+).  trend line SPT at 5.61. start to buy at 6.2 to 5.99
TA- must hold 1.05 SPT.  sideways from 1.05 to 1.38.  wait further for a bounce before buying near 1.05


On Monday, TA Stock Rights offer at Php1 will be given. 

April 2011

Took a lot of losses this month as I am now enforcing discipline into my trading plan.  Finished the 2 part lecture on Technical Analysis provided by COL.  I find it very effective especially the observance of the 1:3 risk reward ratio. 

Despite the cut losses, the equity value on my portfolio rose to as high as 6%, mostly thanks to EDC and PX.  FDC is also now on the positive region.

Despite my earlier plan to just keep a minimum of 4 stocks to trade, I don't think it is no longer possible for me.  Right now, I am holding 8-10 stocks at a time.  About 3 of which are my core (AP, EDC, FDC, AMC), while the rest are for momentum plays.  PX is a leftover hold, yet gives me significant gain which even reached up to 30%.  URC, TA and FLI are my latest stocks and I hope they would not disappoint.  AGI has been a laggard, as I was not successful in range trading this stock.

April performance:
Cash: -0.91%
Equity:  +5.83%

The Year 2010

I have been interested on equities ever since I was an undergrad, but it was only until 5 months ago that I have started actual trading.   Before, I was only into speculative trading (during the time of Pan Xenia's Stock Wars and up to my daily stock-trading simulations at work while I was in Japan).  Now that I have invested real money, I try to study technical analysis and monitor the market, gathering tips/rumors from other fellow traders online to help manage my trades. 

Below is the 1 year chart for the PSE index: (credit: ATR Kim Eng)

As can be seen on the graph, 2010 in general has been on the uptrend.  The steepest rise was on September to the beginning of November.  My first trade was only on July 20.  I had been in the Philippines since February, but I had just procrastinated opening an account with Citiseconline.  In fact, I had been procrastinating for more than a year now, even while I was having my short Xmas vacations in the Philippines.  The subprime crash of 2008 had already ended, and it could have been a good time to invest on equities at the start of 2009.

Anyway, going back to the PSEi, the index performed a year-to-date gain of 37.62%.  The index is composed mostly by blue chip companies and other sectoral representatives that could best describe total market performance in the Philippines. 

Since I have only started 5 months ago, I should compare my performance to at least the 6 month gain of the PSEi which is at 24.56%.  The goal of an equity trader is to beat the market, meaning to have higher gains compared that to the index or to any other Mutual fund available.  ATR Kim Eng's Equity fund, which I also have since Dec 2007, reports a YTD (2010) gain of 51.75% (wow!) or a 6 month performance of 26.55%, still higher than the index.

Given the above figures, my performance then shows a dismal rate at only 13.24%.  Actual profit gains (cash outs) are at 12.28%.  Despite the relative low performance, I should bear in mind that my investment cost wasn't all the same from the start.  In fact, I had more than doubled the investment at the 3rd month, which was already too late for the bull run; thus, in effect only diluted the figures.  My computation for my equity performance is basically just dividing the current equity value (or cash outs) divided by the total cost of investment, regardless of the time of additional entry.

Anyway, I would still like to stick with the current figures as my YTD performance, to encourage me more to surpass these levels next year.  These first few months in trading serves as a test-run for my trading system, considering that I am also now doing full time in graduate studies.  At least now, I am able to understand and feel the market; hopefully, leading me on to wiser trades on the following months.

As part of my year-end analysis, I shall list down what I had experienced below:
1.) I started as a short term trader, being able to monitor the market daily, as a bum (not working, but waiting until classes start).  As soon as classes have started, and going on from midterms to finals, I was no longer able to religiously monitor the market.  Thus, I have decided to shift from being a short term trader to a mid-term/long term.  Doing short-term trading while not being able to monitor the market daily would only lead me to losses and/or missing out on swings.

2.) I still have problems in cutting my losses, always hoping that stocks would rebound in a while.  Quite easy on a bull run, but bulls aren't always there.  I have experienced this during the market correction last Nov-Dec, losing around 17% from URC and 9% from DGTL.  If only I was able to define my stops (i.e. -8% in 1 month), then I would have managed to reduce my losses.

3.) I am still practicing with Fundamental and Technical Analyses.  Before I enter a stock, I should at least have studied it well.  "Trade with a Plan".

...
Others to follow.

End of November --> Finals Week

The long-awaited market correction has finally come, and I have not been spared. On the beginning weeks of November, I was able to cash in profits coming from AP and ORE after a month's hold, with 33% and 20% gains respectively.

During the first dip of the market correction, AP and ORE have been among the few that didn't get affected.  I thought of selling my ORE to lock-in profits, then shift towards stocks that gained new lows; thus, shifting to DMC.  Turns out, the correction has not yet reached bottom, so for a few weeks, my portfolio went down to as far as -7%.

Though I didn't intend to, I was holding a diversified portfolio of 7 stocks; thus, was able to lessen the risks on the volatility of the market.  My hardest-hit stock is URC, which currently sports a -13% paper loss (even reaching -17%).  I can imagine now that if I would need to maintain lesser stocks in my portfolio, I also need to be critical of my cut loss points.

As of the end of November, my realized cash gains were 7.08% while the standing of my portfolio is at -5.41%.  As of this writing, on the first weekend of December, the market has bounced up, and I hope this would not be what they call a "Dead Cat Bounce".  I am looking for ways on how to reposition myself. 

So far:  (PD)

AGI - hold.  May now as well continue trending up.  Signals have just crossed on the MACD line.  This might be a good Xmas stock, as lots of people will surely flock the casinos in Pasay = good revenues. :D

URC - trading above EMA levels and nearing a MACD cross.  A hold for now, but ready to shift once a good choice would be decided upon.

DGTL - For the nth time, seems like the market is still not interested with the DGTL story.  The telco industry in general shows lackluster performance in the market.  This stock got hit by the correction, now at around 7% loss in my portfolio.  I need to reposition again from this stuck.

ORE - Supposed shipping for December has been reported to be delayed up to next year, thus stock price showed some weakness during these past days.  Although my hold for this stock are actually just residuals from a partial sale before, I really should find a window in taking profits from this.

EDC - Still at 4% paper loss.  MACD shows a resting phase, in which we may see a rise in the future if only there would be favorable news enough to push the stock price back to top.

--

Seems like I will just be holding my stocks up to year end.  My first trimester in grad school is about to end, and I have been busy again.  I hope I would have more fruitful trades next year.

Consolidation

The 2nd week of November proved to be a bloody one as the long awaited correction has finally come.  I held on mostly to my stocks since I was still busy with the midterm exams.  By the weekend, my total portfolio went down to about 5% from last month's equity.  Not bad, I guess since I now have a diversified portfolio, albeit a bit shamefully with 6 stocks hehe.  Most of which was due to some "stuck" situations leading to a hold.  I do hope I could get out quickly, to organize my portfolio to a hold of up to 3 core stocks only.

My biggest losers were EDC and URC with around 10% loss each.  EDC has been reported to be fundamentally good, despite consolidating for 2 months now.  As for URC, no news from it yet, but I think it wouldn't be able to rise back again up for my gain.  I plan to shift it towards a moving stock, perhaps like SCC; thereby, readying myself for a loss. 

Good thing I was able to sell my ORE (although not all of them), before the rundown.  This gave me a chance to buy DMC at a low (but not so low).  On the 2nd day of market decline, I thought it was already a good buy.  Only to realize days after that the correction is not yet finished.  DMC went to a low of -8% last weekend.

Today, market produced green candles, although with low volume.  I guess we're still on a consolidation phase, but at least this may signal a near reversal in the future.  This may be a reaction to Pacquiao's win over Margarito yesterday as local investors have been on a good mood. :)  Or, let's just say a lot have already been buying, thinking it's time to shop for lows.  If on Wednesday, the market would pick up again, then that would be a good signal for the rebound.

From a -5% month-to-date loss last weekend to a -1.5% loss today, I'd say my portfolio is still doing good.

A recap on my most recent trades: 
a.) AP --> AGI  :  I got out of AP thinking of a MACD cross at the top.   Only to find out that AP's reign is not over yet.  In fact, AP has been one of the few stocks still left standing despite the correction.  I think next time, it is still better to wait for the cross, then sell on strength.
b.) ORE --> DMC:  ORE still seems to be a good hold, however with the ongoing correction, I did the right thing of selling on profit and moving to a "cheaper stock".  ORE didn't have a selldown yet, while DMC went down from a near-40 to a 35.
c.) DGTL: I am comfortably positioned on this Telco, especially with a very positive 3Q earnings report.  While TEL and GLO went down, DGTL seems to pick up the pace for the industry.  Definitely a turnaround story.  Unfortunately, I just have a relatively minor hold on this stock.
d.) EDC : It's a bit hard to trade this stock for the long term.  I guess it is not yet ripe for the year.  It usually gets a parabolic rise, then consolidates roughly.  So far, fundamentalists have a good say on this stock (now that it's on its lows), so I'm still holding on for now.
e.) URC : I will just see how far it could gain on the next few days, then will surely transfer to a better moving stock.  Seems like URC has been on its high now at the 40ish range.

PD:
EDC- 23.5%  (5% paper loss)
DMC- 17.4% ( break even)
URC- 16.3% ( 9% paper loss)
AGI-  15.4%   (3% paper loss)
DGTL- 12.7% (2.2% paper gain)
AMC- 9.6%   (1% paper loss)
ORE- 3.7%  ( 19% paper gain)
cash - 2%

1 More Exam To Go...

ORE
Beware for a shooting star has been spotted.  JAP is on the buy at an average of 3.89.  I wonder if my exit should be immediate, or at least would let JAP gain some points before selling earlier than him.  Currently thinking to sell at 3.95 (today's close at 3.81) after today's high at 4.  3.95 got a volume trade of about 5%.

EDC
Waiting for a breakout… really now.

URC
Trading sideways

DGTL
Sun Cellular subscribers surpass 16M.  I knew it that this stock was going to be worth investing prior to the quarterly reports.  Now with TEL down, GLO reporting saturated growth, it's time for DGTL to shine!  Too bad, I was just scared to increase my hold on DGTL. I treated this the same way like AMC.  For the long hold.

AMC
zzzzzzzz

Midterms & October Stats

I'm currently busy with my midterm exams at Grad school.  Hopefully next week, I can be more relaxed. Come to think of it, only 1 month left before the finals!  Time does pass by so fast!  Just a few days ago, I have turned 26!

I am now trading in the mid-long term due to "busyness".  One stock that I have held for a long time (more than 1 month) is EDC.  During September, I was hoping that momentum would shift towards the energy sector, and so I had EDC, FGEN and AP.  I was able to swing trade on FGEN, and I have been very happy with my AP (30+% gain).  The only stock that I regret holding too long was with EDC.  I should've sold during its decline on the MACD.  Up to now, it is still consolidating.  I am not yet sure on when would be its next rise.

DGTL is still trending sideways.  There seems to be a wall at 1.64.  Currently on the lower downtrend of the MACD, I hope it rises soon.  I am hoping 3rd quarter earnings would be favorable; leading to its push.

URC.  Seems like this baby is now awake.  Too bad I wasn't able to increase my holdings @ around 44.  After consolidating for 3 weeks, now it seems to be on its rise.  There is a notable increase in volume. 

ORE.  After unloading my AP, ORE is now top performing stock in my portfolio.  This is a jockeyed + "buy on the news" mining stock, I am a bit anxious on how to exit, but so far still on the uptrend.  Ended today with a small hammer though.

AMC.  My long term stock.  Still waiting for its parabolic rise. Still flat for now :p
 

October Recap:
Okay, so for this month I have doubled my cash investment on stocks from last month.  My actual cash earnings is only at 1.13%, but this is mainly because I have held more onto my stocks for a medium hold.  In fact, I have just sold my AP with 33% gain a few days ago, but that would already be included into the November stats.  Factoring in a bigger portfolio, my equity equivalence gain registered at 6.78%

Now with a bigger portfolio, I tend to buy more stocks which should not be the case.  I should try to maintain at least 4 stocks only. 

I have also tested some trading tactics.  Long green candles does not ensure a good buy.  Always check for volume.

A long incoherent post for today.  Just had my 2nd exam for the midterms.  2 more to come.  At least I get to rest a bit. :)

New Challengers

Prospects:
Missed the ICT train today.  Seems like resting for a bigger push.  Bounced back down after meeting its first resistance.

MPI completes a dark cloud cover plus a MACD sell.  Currently signaling a downtrend.

SCC ended with a shooting star. Let's wait at 152.39.

PD:
Bought URC at 45.25 (buy signal from CSO), buying the dips after a long candle.  1st support from the pivot point was correct, being the lowest trade for the day.  Candlestick forms somewhat like a harami, but still maintaining on the top half of the previous day's long candle.  Buy signal from CSO, was confirmed from a MACD buy and a bullish BOS.  This trade is meant for the short term-medium term only.

AP continuing on its ascent, faced the upper resistance at 26.31. Swing traders would have sold along with doyts.  The stock ended backing down further from the lower resistance @25.23.  Currently closed at 24.8. 

EDC is still having support from foreign buys (doyts and CLSA) although JPMorgan was selling.  Still a bit 50-50 on unloading tomorrow.

CMT on a lull.  I hope I wouldn't face a cut-loss here.  It should hold at 1.8 then hopefully will shoot up breaking out at 2. :P

Can't resist, bought some milk today :)

Composition:  (Oh no, I am now holding 5 stocks.)
AMC - 12% 
AP - 18.4%  
CMT - 13.5%
EDC - 32.7%
URC- 22.7%

Today, I have increased my cash investment for another 25%.  Greedy me.  Well, this is to give way to my long term plans on certain stocks, retaining my cash investments for short term trading.