June - July 2012

This may serve as my June and July update since I have been busy at work lately and I don't think I can religiously update this blog regularly (at least bi-monthly).  It is unfortunate that I got busy the same time when the market has corrected, and that I can no longer keep up with the daily monitoring that I got used to for the last 2 years.

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)

YTD:  +4.28%

Benchmark: +18.5%

The start of the year was great since I was able to outperform the index; however, during the correction last May, I realized that my stops were too low (100 MA) as my paper profits went back to almost zero.    PSE market is still quite shaky these days as I am trying to re-enter.  My portfolio above shows a lot of entries because most of them are test buys.  Only FGEN and CMT seem to show a continuity on its uptrend.

Currently, my portfolio is clearly underperforming; I hope, I can manage to steer it back to beat the benchmark.  Still, the good thing is it is still on the positive.

AJC Fund (short term fund)

YTD (3 months):  -2.59%

Benchmark: -0.70%

AJC Fund is still on the negative although the gap from the benchmark is closer (< 3%) now  than what was last reported (~ 5%).  Both portfolios suffered from the inclusion of Lepanto which backfired when the Mining EO signed by PNoy still gave uncertainty to the mining sector.  

PSE Index Weekly

Looking at the PSEi weekly chart, seems like it is on a positive channel uptrend.  However, note the divergence as revealed in the MACD.  This may indicate that the uptrend is not sustainable; we can expect further consolidation in the future.  Seems like our market will trade at a range for the meantime. Next month would be the so-called ghost month, so it is possible that we may experience further selldowns.  Might be best to stay at the sidelines for now.

February 2012

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)


YTD: 12.64%
Benchmark (PSEi): 11.4%

The following is the composition of my trading portfolio: (as of Feb 29, 2012)

February saw the rise of FDC and I hope that it will still continue.  With its book value still far below market, plus the planned IPO of EWB, I am still holding this stock perhaps before or after a planned secondary IPO or private placement will be announced.

I have repositioned my portfolio a little bit away from mining stocks (PX, LC/B) and slowly diversified to other sectors.  My exposure to mining is now limited to MARC which seems to be a good prospect as based on its report on earnings and operations.

Oil has now been an issue due to the news on Iran. I choose PXP to be a good mid-long term stock.  I just hope that they would no longer require equity financing as it would shake down the stock's market prices.  A lot of companies had been undergoing private placements lately, and the market has not responded too well on such kind of news, at least for the short-term.

Unexpectedly, TA announced another SRO this year which dragged down the prices; thus, hitting my sell indicators.  Seems like TA is maintaining a debt-capital ratio of around 40:60 (max).  I still like this stock since it is both Power and Oil play.  Although I expect market prices to go down as effect to the news on SRO.

February was a good month as it extended gains.  My portfolio reached a max YTD of 15% until profit-taking happened during the latter days of the month.  I think we'll be under a consolidaton phase for 1-2 more weeks before we get to see any action.  Good thing I'm 20% cash right now, I'll practice range trading and will also start accumulating for the strong index stocks.

AJC Fund (short term)

YTD: -2.97%
Benchmark: -1.4%

Much of the loss was attributed to the sudden SRO news on TA which caused it to drop to as low as 1.12 from 1.31.  Fundamentals of TA is still good and intact, however, my strategy for the AJC Fund would be more on short-mid term unlike the ScIoN fund which is mid-long term.

The run-up of stocks was for those who already had positions at the end of January.  Positioning in February was a bit tricky, a lot of setups became bull/bear traps.  For now, I have positioned the fund into 30% MARC, short term on SLI (15%) and the rest on cash.  There are still oddlots on EDC and BEL which I can't dispose, so I'll just leave them there for now.

The Benchmark portfolio is based on the original portfolio when it was handed over to me.  Assuming if I did not change anything, YTD is at -1.4%.

October 2011 Performance

Missed around 3 months of updating since I've been busy and the market was in a slump.  Though it was August that was declared as a "ghost month" in accordance to Chinese beliefs, market decline started a month later.

I have 2 portfolios on my Bloomberg Portfolio tracker.  The first one is on managed funds: a combination of a mutual fund via ATR Kim Eng and BDO Equity and Bond Funds.  I'm quite satisfied with my BDO Funds, it's ATR Kim Eng (aka The Mutual Fund Company) which disappoints.  I plan to redeem all my shares as soon as possible and probably shift it to other accounts.

Portfolio 1 breakdown
BDO Equity Fund:  55%
ATR Kim Eng Fund: 16%
BDO Bond Fund: 29%

I'm really happy with BDO Bond Fund as it is giving me an annualized gain of 10%.  I've got positive returns for all 4 months that I have been invested.  Although, September just gave me a close to 0 positive return, but it was generally due to a market slump.

Portfolio 2:  Self-managed Fund
July was the start of a bull run, however, news on Greece and Europe in general scared all the bulls leading to a huge drop in September.  A 2 month rally which gave me 6% in portfolio gains got erased in just a month.  At the end of October, I am still left with less than a percent difference (loss) compared to my July portfolio.

From a YTD gain of 11.5% at the end of August, my portfolio got wiped out and ended up to -2% in just a month!  I had to liquidate my long-term positions on LC and PX.  My biggest regrettable loss came from a speculative for which I did not cut loss early (WPI).  At least it was just a small position, however I lost around 50% on that.

YTD Performance: (paper)
ScIoN Fund: 3.94%
PSEi: 1.58%
ATR Kim Eng: -1.12%

In terms of cash, I have liquidated a total gain of around 5.53% already.  Reinvested profits are currently at a loss, as shown by a lower paper YTD compared to cash.  I now plan to trade only a fixed amount, and the rest would be placed into high dividend yielding stocks or to be transferred to safer investments.

I am also currently 29% cash, since the PSE is still on a sideways trend.  There seems to be a lot of good buys recently as stocks slowly get up from oversold region.  I'd say, the 4th quarter seems to be a good time to go back to the market.  I don't expect a bull run yet, but at least there are lots of upsides now as compared to the downsides.