June - July 2012

This may serve as my June and July update since I have been busy at work lately and I don't think I can religiously update this blog regularly (at least bi-monthly).  It is unfortunate that I got busy the same time when the market has corrected, and that I can no longer keep up with the daily monitoring that I got used to for the last 2 years.

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)

YTD:  +4.28%

Benchmark: +18.5%

The start of the year was great since I was able to outperform the index; however, during the correction last May, I realized that my stops were too low (100 MA) as my paper profits went back to almost zero.    PSE market is still quite shaky these days as I am trying to re-enter.  My portfolio above shows a lot of entries because most of them are test buys.  Only FGEN and CMT seem to show a continuity on its uptrend.

Currently, my portfolio is clearly underperforming; I hope, I can manage to steer it back to beat the benchmark.  Still, the good thing is it is still on the positive.

AJC Fund (short term fund)

YTD (3 months):  -2.59%

Benchmark: -0.70%

AJC Fund is still on the negative although the gap from the benchmark is closer (< 3%) now  than what was last reported (~ 5%).  Both portfolios suffered from the inclusion of Lepanto which backfired when the Mining EO signed by PNoy still gave uncertainty to the mining sector.  

PSE Index Weekly

Looking at the PSEi weekly chart, seems like it is on a positive channel uptrend.  However, note the divergence as revealed in the MACD.  This may indicate that the uptrend is not sustainable; we can expect further consolidation in the future.  Seems like our market will trade at a range for the meantime. Next month would be the so-called ghost month, so it is possible that we may experience further selldowns.  Might be best to stay at the sidelines for now.

February 2012

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)


YTD: 12.64%
Benchmark (PSEi): 11.4%

The following is the composition of my trading portfolio: (as of Feb 29, 2012)

February saw the rise of FDC and I hope that it will still continue.  With its book value still far below market, plus the planned IPO of EWB, I am still holding this stock perhaps before or after a planned secondary IPO or private placement will be announced.

I have repositioned my portfolio a little bit away from mining stocks (PX, LC/B) and slowly diversified to other sectors.  My exposure to mining is now limited to MARC which seems to be a good prospect as based on its report on earnings and operations.

Oil has now been an issue due to the news on Iran. I choose PXP to be a good mid-long term stock.  I just hope that they would no longer require equity financing as it would shake down the stock's market prices.  A lot of companies had been undergoing private placements lately, and the market has not responded too well on such kind of news, at least for the short-term.

Unexpectedly, TA announced another SRO this year which dragged down the prices; thus, hitting my sell indicators.  Seems like TA is maintaining a debt-capital ratio of around 40:60 (max).  I still like this stock since it is both Power and Oil play.  Although I expect market prices to go down as effect to the news on SRO.

February was a good month as it extended gains.  My portfolio reached a max YTD of 15% until profit-taking happened during the latter days of the month.  I think we'll be under a consolidaton phase for 1-2 more weeks before we get to see any action.  Good thing I'm 20% cash right now, I'll practice range trading and will also start accumulating for the strong index stocks.

AJC Fund (short term)

YTD: -2.97%
Benchmark: -1.4%

Much of the loss was attributed to the sudden SRO news on TA which caused it to drop to as low as 1.12 from 1.31.  Fundamentals of TA is still good and intact, however, my strategy for the AJC Fund would be more on short-mid term unlike the ScIoN fund which is mid-long term.

The run-up of stocks was for those who already had positions at the end of January.  Positioning in February was a bit tricky, a lot of setups became bull/bear traps.  For now, I have positioned the fund into 30% MARC, short term on SLI (15%) and the rest on cash.  There are still oddlots on EDC and BEL which I can't dispose, so I'll just leave them there for now.

The Benchmark portfolio is based on the original portfolio when it was handed over to me.  Assuming if I did not change anything, YTD is at -1.4%.

2011 Year End Report

From last year's 12.37% gain (5 months), my stock portfolio only managed to sneak in a disappointing 2.06% YTD gain.  It was during September when Euro debt fears affected the global markets that my 11.49% YTD went down to a -2.41% loss in just one month.  Prices bounced back a little by December.

At the start of the year, I have positioned myself into AP, EDC, TA and FDC as my long term stock holdings.  Unfortunately, the power industry rested from its bullish run after the 2009 financial crash.  I did gain from EDC until I sold all on May when it broke its moving average supports.  My "Power play" was a bit early. As for FDC, it delayed its follow-on offering due to unfavorable market conditions.  The Euro Debt scare is still very much alive, and it pulls down overall market sentiment despite good Philippine fundamentals.

My best earners were (more than 10%): URC (21%), PX (19%), FOOD (19%), LC (52%).
Dividend givers (cash more than 1k): URC (~4.6%), EDC (~2.8%), AP (~4.66%), PXP (in the form of shares from PX)
Worst losses (more than 10%): MPI (-13%), PCOR (-12%), LPZ (-11.6%), LC (-18.7%), PX (-13.7%), WPI (-41.8%), ELI (-13.4%), MEG (-11.8%)

I have been using more Technical Analysis lately, and the good thing is, I have managed to improve in the money management department.  Cutting losses is hard to do, but it's best to cut losses early than to realize it when it's already too late.  By the middle of the year, I have started using Ichimoku Kinkou Hyou, aka kumo (cloud) trading.  It's a visual guide for me to determine supports and resistances, and to see trend reversals and breakouts.

I used to try and limit my holdings to just a few stocks, but given a lot of chart breakouts lately, I diversified into a lot.  Especially during the time the PSE was moving sideways.  I may reconsider again now that we are on quasi-bullish mode (a little more to confirm).  I also try to practice turtle trading, for which I buy a position and take some profits when targets have been reached, leaving behind some shares for further run-up.

This is the whole pie of my trading portfolio (23% of my whole Investment Port):

Seems like the theme for my trading portfolio would be power, oil and mining.  I'm still hoping FDC would start going up this first quarter of the year.




My Investment Portfolio is divided into:

Equities (66%)
-BDO Equity Fund (33%) :  -2.13%   * was caught in a bull trap when I entered last May.
-COL trading account (23%): +2.06%  * August dip led my once YTD 12% down to a negative in just a month.  My long term stocks actually kicked in a little bit late, now at the start of 2012.
-ATR Mutual Fund (10%):   -1.6% *My very first investment 4 years ago which is actually on a gain of 41%


Bonds (18%) 
-BDO Bond Fund (18%): +5.17% *Instead of investing on balanced funds, you can allocate your own through Bond and Equity Funds.

Savings Account (16%) *Still on the process of transferring funds from here to other investments.  Should only leave money here for liquidity purposes.

Overall, my portfolio is still intact.  I may not have earned a lot this year, but I can say that I have improved greatly.  What is important is that I now have my own trading system for Technical Analysis.  I will still stick with fundamentals especially for long term "conviction" holds.

October 2011 Performance

Missed around 3 months of updating since I've been busy and the market was in a slump.  Though it was August that was declared as a "ghost month" in accordance to Chinese beliefs, market decline started a month later.

I have 2 portfolios on my Bloomberg Portfolio tracker.  The first one is on managed funds: a combination of a mutual fund via ATR Kim Eng and BDO Equity and Bond Funds.  I'm quite satisfied with my BDO Funds, it's ATR Kim Eng (aka The Mutual Fund Company) which disappoints.  I plan to redeem all my shares as soon as possible and probably shift it to other accounts.

Portfolio 1 breakdown
BDO Equity Fund:  55%
ATR Kim Eng Fund: 16%
BDO Bond Fund: 29%

I'm really happy with BDO Bond Fund as it is giving me an annualized gain of 10%.  I've got positive returns for all 4 months that I have been invested.  Although, September just gave me a close to 0 positive return, but it was generally due to a market slump.

Portfolio 2:  Self-managed Fund
July was the start of a bull run, however, news on Greece and Europe in general scared all the bulls leading to a huge drop in September.  A 2 month rally which gave me 6% in portfolio gains got erased in just a month.  At the end of October, I am still left with less than a percent difference (loss) compared to my July portfolio.

From a YTD gain of 11.5% at the end of August, my portfolio got wiped out and ended up to -2% in just a month!  I had to liquidate my long-term positions on LC and PX.  My biggest regrettable loss came from a speculative for which I did not cut loss early (WPI).  At least it was just a small position, however I lost around 50% on that.

YTD Performance: (paper)
ScIoN Fund: 3.94%
PSEi: 1.58%
ATR Kim Eng: -1.12%

In terms of cash, I have liquidated a total gain of around 5.53% already.  Reinvested profits are currently at a loss, as shown by a lower paper YTD compared to cash.  I now plan to trade only a fixed amount, and the rest would be placed into high dividend yielding stocks or to be transferred to safer investments.

I am also currently 29% cash, since the PSE is still on a sideways trend.  There seems to be a lot of good buys recently as stocks slowly get up from oversold region.  I'd say, the 4th quarter seems to be a good time to go back to the market.  I don't expect a bull run yet, but at least there are lots of upsides now as compared to the downsides.

Picks of the Week [August 15 - August 19]

Didn't blog the pats 2 weeks since I got busy with midterm exams.  August has been thought of being a bad month for stocks due to the "ghost month" effect which is predominantly a Chinese belief.   Seems like it was true enough as global markets plummeted just as the PSEi have just reached its historical high.

At the end of the 2nd week, I am very much glad that my portfolio went back up to my normal levels of paper profits.  This is all thanks to mining c/o LC and PX albeit being just a minor portion of my portfolio (at around 10% each).  I am still bullish with my current holdings, what worries me is my UITF which suffered greatly during the crash.  Technically, I should have cut my losses at this point, however, there seems to be a chance that it could also recoup its losses within the month.  Right now, it is still only the Philippine mining sector that makes the market alive.  Once the property sector kicks in, then the bullish party is on.

What is my pick for the week?  Most probably mining.

June 2011 Performance

June was a rollercoaster ride as stocks went down then came back up, retracing from a slightly downward channel.  Cash out profits actually came from cash dividends based on May's ex-dates.   Good thing these dividends were bigger than my losses for the month of June.  These losses primarily were due to AT.  Ironically, it was a bear trap as AT bullied itself through becoming one of the current flavors in the market nowadays.  I nearly did the same thing with PX, fortunately I wasn't that fast enough to cut my losses yet.  PX and AT rose and broke some new highs at the end of this month.

Halfway through the month, my portfolio was at a negative diminishing all gains up to the beginning of the year.  Thankfully, there was a technical rebound bringing back my gains; and hopefully, creating a new bull session after breaking out of the channel.

My portfolio grew around 2.11% from last month, lower from May's performance of 6% (best month so far).  Anyway, a gain is a gain.

My YTD (Year to date) performance compared to the PSEindex and my mutual fund (ATR Kim Eng) is as follows:
ScIoN Fund:   4.92%
PSE Index:      1.15%
ATR KimEng: 0.61%

Pretty much very nice to see since I could somewhat say I have "beaten the market"... for now. :D  But I do know a lot more people who has more impressive portfolio gains ranging from the 20s up to near 100% gain (undiversified).

My current portfolio composition:

June
AP	22.9%
FDC	12.7%
TA	9.4%
LC	8.9%
PX	8.7%
URC	6.4%
LPZ	6.3%
MPI	3.5%
OV	3.5%
SCC	3.3%
Exposure	85.8%

As for Sector composition:
Oil & Energy: 39.09%
Mining: 17.68%
Holdings: 22.5%
Food: 6.4%
Cash: 14.2%

Picks of the Week [June 6-June 10]

Last week, my sole pick was PX for the continuation of the mining play and for the PPC dividend, a way of listing by introduction of Philex Petroleum.  I did buy PX on the first 2 days of the week, doubling my position in the process.    PX prices was volatile as it reached a low of 20 to a high of 21.75.  Closing price was at 20.45, a bit lower than my average cost at 20.58.  21.75 can be set as a Resistance for now, and I aim to unload some shares near that price.

As the PSEi only shows a sideways trend, with current prices seem to be correcting, I am looking to sell most of my current holdings.  Selling at strength, to protect and to realize profits.  If ever the index breaks that range resistance, then I'm definitely putting up all of my other cash into BDO's Equity fund. :D

On the weekly charts, AT seems to be this week's top pick due to the BUY signal generated from its MACD oscillator.  Its immediate RST at 18.2 may be hurdled upon for a breakout.  Not to be outdone by the mining trio, PX/LC/MA which had gained a lot these past few weeks,  AT has a story of its own in the name of the Berong Nickel mines.

May 2011 Performance

I'm getting the hang of using excel and so I hope that my posts and record-keeping will be more organized.  I had 14 trades for the month of May, quite a lot for a month I guess.  Well, I really had the time to trade since it's our summer break.

Month to month performance:

Equity rose by 6%.  

1.68% of it were realized through cash.

For what matters most is my YTD (Year to Date) Performance in which I reinvested all my gains from last year:

Realized gains is at 2.88%.

Equity at 2.76%.

--> Equity percentage being lower than the realized gain, means that my portfolio is a bit down due to the currently sideways market.

Composition of stocks

AP	21.0%	-2.38%
FDC	13.0%	-1.61%
TA	9.7%	-14.86%	SRO shares not yet included which would reduce the loss.
LC	9.1%	6.13%
PX	8.9%	-0.94%
URC	8.8%	14.42%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
AT	6.8%	1.19%
LPZ	6.5%	-2.24%
SCC	3.4%	-4.43%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
Exposure	87.1%

 

 Remaining 12.9% is Cash which is pretty much standard for me as this is the allocated portion for my "revolving fund".  The colored figures on the right is the actual standing of my holdings, whether it is up or on the negative.

The next table shows my exposure with respect to industry.

Power	24.4%
AP	21%
SCC	3.4%
Oil	9.7%
TA	9.7%
Mining	24.8%
LC	9.1%
PX	8.9%
AT	6.8%
Holdings	19.4%
FDC	13.0%
LPZ	6.5%
Commodities
URC	8.8%

  Shows that I am now a bit heavy on Mining and Power which when combined takes half of my portfolio.  I was able to get out of certain stocks which I held for a long time.  Most of my current stocks are relatively new ones, and that explains why most are in the red -- due to slight correction.  I got shaked out of EDC, which was one of my core stocks.  Unfortunately for me, it was just a bear trap when it touched 6.3s going back up to as high as 6.8.

I can say I am more confident with my portfolio as compared to before.  All thanks to technical analysis and some trend following pointers I have learned.  Looking forward to the coming days!

Picks of the Week [May 30-June 3]

My choices for last week were BEL and AT.  However, due to the general slump of last week's index these 2 stocks also followed in the decrease of stock prices.  BEL for last week was more of a "cautious buy" since there have been no breakouts yet.  During the first 2 days of trading, prices went back to support level; thus, no buy orders were made.

As for AT, I made a mistake interpreting the chart.  My labeling of a "bullish flag" was incorrect, and should have just been a range trade.  As a result, I entered at a slight high of 17.70, instead of just waiting at a lower price near 17.21.  Good thing I entered with just a small position.

For this week, I only have 1 pick and it is PX.  With the upcoming stock dividend in terms of new PPC (Philex Petroleum) shares and a breakout for a new high w/ volume, this is definitely a top pick for me.  I entered with a small position because I felt I was a bit late, even buying at the close.  I guess that's the price to pay with holding a lot of stocks (more or less 10), gives difficulty in terms of monitoring.  Since this is a strong buy for me, I am still waiting for dips near 20.  I just saw the 10 year chart and wow, in hindsight, PX has been a very good investment through the years!

For this week, I tried using the weekly charts instead of just the dailies.  This would be a great exercise for me to not only be dependent on daily charts.  Besides, if I am going to speculate for 1 week, it makes more sense to use the weeklies.

And since I had some sort of trouble monitoring all my current holdings plus waiting for "promising" stocks, this time around, I'll just concentrate first with what I already have.

SELL
EDC- sell on strength.  slower upward channel after breaking UT. RST at 7.17 but might fall down to 5.67. [sell at 6.52 or 6.38]
SCC - correction- downward channel .  sell at RST at 222.26 or at least 214.11. Possible to go down further

HOLD
AP- downward channel to sideways since Nov 10. Range trade SPT at 25.86, lighten at 32.7.  Major SPT at 23.45 (130SMA). 
FDC- major RST at 7.7 (old high). UT still intact and in line with 130SMA.  Start buying if it reaches at least 4.8.  Weak DMI (+)
URC- potential cup and handle. major RST at 46.9 (high). SPT at 65 SMA at 37.79.

Strong BUY
LC- strong DMI (+).  cautiously buy at .78 (dips).  SPT at .74; RST at .93
PX - strong DMI (+).  breakout from new high.  buy near 20 SPT.

Cautious BUY
AT - sideways to up.  R1: 17.68; R2: 20.17.  major SPT at 14.86.  wait for breakout to buy (hammer and buy MACD signal). 
LPZ - UT intact.  retesting major RST 6.6. DMI gaining strength (+).  trend line SPT at 5.61. start to buy at 6.2 to 5.99
TA- must hold 1.05 SPT.  sideways from 1.05 to 1.38.  wait further for a bounce before buying near 1.05


On Monday, TA Stock Rights offer at Php1 will be given.