June - July 2012

This may serve as my June and July update since I have been busy at work lately and I don't think I can religiously update this blog regularly (at least bi-monthly).  It is unfortunate that I got busy the same time when the market has corrected, and that I can no longer keep up with the daily monitoring that I got used to for the last 2 years.

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)

YTD:  +4.28%

Benchmark: +18.5%

The start of the year was great since I was able to outperform the index; however, during the correction last May, I realized that my stops were too low (100 MA) as my paper profits went back to almost zero.    PSE market is still quite shaky these days as I am trying to re-enter.  My portfolio above shows a lot of entries because most of them are test buys.  Only FGEN and CMT seem to show a continuity on its uptrend.

Currently, my portfolio is clearly underperforming; I hope, I can manage to steer it back to beat the benchmark.  Still, the good thing is it is still on the positive.

AJC Fund (short term fund)

YTD (3 months):  -2.59%

Benchmark: -0.70%

AJC Fund is still on the negative although the gap from the benchmark is closer (< 3%) now  than what was last reported (~ 5%).  Both portfolios suffered from the inclusion of Lepanto which backfired when the Mining EO signed by PNoy still gave uncertainty to the mining sector.  

PSE Index Weekly

Looking at the PSEi weekly chart, seems like it is on a positive channel uptrend.  However, note the divergence as revealed in the MACD.  This may indicate that the uptrend is not sustainable; we can expect further consolidation in the future.  Seems like our market will trade at a range for the meantime. Next month would be the so-called ghost month, so it is possible that we may experience further selldowns.  Might be best to stay at the sidelines for now.

March 2012

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)

YTD:  +18.20%
Benchmark: +16.2%

March was a generally good trading month for me since my portfolio increased for another 6% in just 2 weeks.  I was able to realize gains from ANI, TEL and PXP.  TA cash dividends has also arrived.  Biggest portfolio movers maintain to be FDC and MARC.  However, on the latter part of the month, MARC had a big correction going down to 3.  I'm currently 2% above my benchmark, so I'm happy with my first quarter performance so far.

I'm still bullish for our local market; however, I'm waiting for another correction of the market.  Index was able to maintain the positive trend channel which started January this year.  But, comparing it with the MACD indicator, there seems to be a negative divergence.  The ScIoN fund is currently 21% cash, so if ever there would be a major dip, I'd have enough ammo to buy.


AJC Fund (short term fund)
YTD (2 months):  -0.68%
Benchmark: +4.4%

The AJC Fund reached its all-time high of a +4.17% mid-March thanks to MARC (High of 3.52); however, as mentioned earlier, it went back down to 3. Since the portfolio is less diversified as compared to the ScIoN fund, volatility is higher at this point. I exited MARC at 3 with a gain of around 8%.  Last month's losses (-2.97%) were recovered and now, portfolio is at a near break-even (-0.68%). 


The challenge here is to beat the benchmark portfolio.  It includes EDC, BEL and MPI which were big gainers for March; thus, having a good run this month (4.4%).  I had entered AGI; however, price movement turned out to be a bull trap.  I'm having Cash ready at 70%, waiting to jump in when the market corrects.  

February 2012

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)


YTD: 12.64%
Benchmark (PSEi): 11.4%

The following is the composition of my trading portfolio: (as of Feb 29, 2012)

February saw the rise of FDC and I hope that it will still continue.  With its book value still far below market, plus the planned IPO of EWB, I am still holding this stock perhaps before or after a planned secondary IPO or private placement will be announced.

I have repositioned my portfolio a little bit away from mining stocks (PX, LC/B) and slowly diversified to other sectors.  My exposure to mining is now limited to MARC which seems to be a good prospect as based on its report on earnings and operations.

Oil has now been an issue due to the news on Iran. I choose PXP to be a good mid-long term stock.  I just hope that they would no longer require equity financing as it would shake down the stock's market prices.  A lot of companies had been undergoing private placements lately, and the market has not responded too well on such kind of news, at least for the short-term.

Unexpectedly, TA announced another SRO this year which dragged down the prices; thus, hitting my sell indicators.  Seems like TA is maintaining a debt-capital ratio of around 40:60 (max).  I still like this stock since it is both Power and Oil play.  Although I expect market prices to go down as effect to the news on SRO.

February was a good month as it extended gains.  My portfolio reached a max YTD of 15% until profit-taking happened during the latter days of the month.  I think we'll be under a consolidaton phase for 1-2 more weeks before we get to see any action.  Good thing I'm 20% cash right now, I'll practice range trading and will also start accumulating for the strong index stocks.

AJC Fund (short term)

YTD: -2.97%
Benchmark: -1.4%

Much of the loss was attributed to the sudden SRO news on TA which caused it to drop to as low as 1.12 from 1.31.  Fundamentals of TA is still good and intact, however, my strategy for the AJC Fund would be more on short-mid term unlike the ScIoN fund which is mid-long term.

The run-up of stocks was for those who already had positions at the end of January.  Positioning in February was a bit tricky, a lot of setups became bull/bear traps.  For now, I have positioned the fund into 30% MARC, short term on SLI (15%) and the rest on cash.  There are still oddlots on EDC and BEL which I can't dispose, so I'll just leave them there for now.

The Benchmark portfolio is based on the original portfolio when it was handed over to me.  Assuming if I did not change anything, YTD is at -1.4%.

2011 Year End Report

From last year's 12.37% gain (5 months), my stock portfolio only managed to sneak in a disappointing 2.06% YTD gain.  It was during September when Euro debt fears affected the global markets that my 11.49% YTD went down to a -2.41% loss in just one month.  Prices bounced back a little by December.

At the start of the year, I have positioned myself into AP, EDC, TA and FDC as my long term stock holdings.  Unfortunately, the power industry rested from its bullish run after the 2009 financial crash.  I did gain from EDC until I sold all on May when it broke its moving average supports.  My "Power play" was a bit early. As for FDC, it delayed its follow-on offering due to unfavorable market conditions.  The Euro Debt scare is still very much alive, and it pulls down overall market sentiment despite good Philippine fundamentals.

My best earners were (more than 10%): URC (21%), PX (19%), FOOD (19%), LC (52%).
Dividend givers (cash more than 1k): URC (~4.6%), EDC (~2.8%), AP (~4.66%), PXP (in the form of shares from PX)
Worst losses (more than 10%): MPI (-13%), PCOR (-12%), LPZ (-11.6%), LC (-18.7%), PX (-13.7%), WPI (-41.8%), ELI (-13.4%), MEG (-11.8%)

I have been using more Technical Analysis lately, and the good thing is, I have managed to improve in the money management department.  Cutting losses is hard to do, but it's best to cut losses early than to realize it when it's already too late.  By the middle of the year, I have started using Ichimoku Kinkou Hyou, aka kumo (cloud) trading.  It's a visual guide for me to determine supports and resistances, and to see trend reversals and breakouts.

I used to try and limit my holdings to just a few stocks, but given a lot of chart breakouts lately, I diversified into a lot.  Especially during the time the PSE was moving sideways.  I may reconsider again now that we are on quasi-bullish mode (a little more to confirm).  I also try to practice turtle trading, for which I buy a position and take some profits when targets have been reached, leaving behind some shares for further run-up.

This is the whole pie of my trading portfolio (23% of my whole Investment Port):

Seems like the theme for my trading portfolio would be power, oil and mining.  I'm still hoping FDC would start going up this first quarter of the year.




My Investment Portfolio is divided into:

Equities (66%)
-BDO Equity Fund (33%) :  -2.13%   * was caught in a bull trap when I entered last May.
-COL trading account (23%): +2.06%  * August dip led my once YTD 12% down to a negative in just a month.  My long term stocks actually kicked in a little bit late, now at the start of 2012.
-ATR Mutual Fund (10%):   -1.6% *My very first investment 4 years ago which is actually on a gain of 41%


Bonds (18%) 
-BDO Bond Fund (18%): +5.17% *Instead of investing on balanced funds, you can allocate your own through Bond and Equity Funds.

Savings Account (16%) *Still on the process of transferring funds from here to other investments.  Should only leave money here for liquidity purposes.

Overall, my portfolio is still intact.  I may not have earned a lot this year, but I can say that I have improved greatly.  What is important is that I now have my own trading system for Technical Analysis.  I will still stick with fundamentals especially for long term "conviction" holds.

Picks of the Week [July 4-July 8]

Next week's going to be exciting!  Take a look at the chart below:


Breakout!! :D
1.) Above MACD zero signal line
2.) Both above sideways and immediate down trend channel
3.) Kichou span cross signaling a strong BUY
4.) Senkou span cross (leading signal)
5.) Prices trading above moving Averages. 

Perfect!
The problem is, I need to enter my funds ASAP into the BDO Equity Fund before momentum dries out.  Might take 2 days delay. :(

As for my picks next week, there are lots of them:
1.) MPI - Took profits at 3.69 but I plan to buy back for some more. :D
2.) EDC - entered earlier and my selling bids got hit.  With the strong volume earlier, this is a good re-buy.
3.) TA - a strong finish yesterday, too bad I didn't exceed my selling bid, but still I got some profit for around 12% gain.  Will buy more ammo for this one as I consider this among my core stocks.
4.) PX - another core stock, currently doing a parabolic rise.  I don't even know when to sell!  Instead, I plan to add more.
5.) GERI - Interesting volume today and a kumo breakout.  Will consider this stock once the dust clears.  (I am holding 10 stocks which is already time-consuming to manage).

Picks of the Week [May 30-June 3]

My choices for last week were BEL and AT.  However, due to the general slump of last week's index these 2 stocks also followed in the decrease of stock prices.  BEL for last week was more of a "cautious buy" since there have been no breakouts yet.  During the first 2 days of trading, prices went back to support level; thus, no buy orders were made.

As for AT, I made a mistake interpreting the chart.  My labeling of a "bullish flag" was incorrect, and should have just been a range trade.  As a result, I entered at a slight high of 17.70, instead of just waiting at a lower price near 17.21.  Good thing I entered with just a small position.

For this week, I only have 1 pick and it is PX.  With the upcoming stock dividend in terms of new PPC (Philex Petroleum) shares and a breakout for a new high w/ volume, this is definitely a top pick for me.  I entered with a small position because I felt I was a bit late, even buying at the close.  I guess that's the price to pay with holding a lot of stocks (more or less 10), gives difficulty in terms of monitoring.  Since this is a strong buy for me, I am still waiting for dips near 20.  I just saw the 10 year chart and wow, in hindsight, PX has been a very good investment through the years!

For this week, I tried using the weekly charts instead of just the dailies.  This would be a great exercise for me to not only be dependent on daily charts.  Besides, if I am going to speculate for 1 week, it makes more sense to use the weeklies.

And since I had some sort of trouble monitoring all my current holdings plus waiting for "promising" stocks, this time around, I'll just concentrate first with what I already have.

SELL
EDC- sell on strength.  slower upward channel after breaking UT. RST at 7.17 but might fall down to 5.67. [sell at 6.52 or 6.38]
SCC - correction- downward channel .  sell at RST at 222.26 or at least 214.11. Possible to go down further

HOLD
AP- downward channel to sideways since Nov 10. Range trade SPT at 25.86, lighten at 32.7.  Major SPT at 23.45 (130SMA). 
FDC- major RST at 7.7 (old high). UT still intact and in line with 130SMA.  Start buying if it reaches at least 4.8.  Weak DMI (+)
URC- potential cup and handle. major RST at 46.9 (high). SPT at 65 SMA at 37.79.

Strong BUY
LC- strong DMI (+).  cautiously buy at .78 (dips).  SPT at .74; RST at .93
PX - strong DMI (+).  breakout from new high.  buy near 20 SPT.

Cautious BUY
AT - sideways to up.  R1: 17.68; R2: 20.17.  major SPT at 14.86.  wait for breakout to buy (hammer and buy MACD signal). 
LPZ - UT intact.  retesting major RST 6.6. DMI gaining strength (+).  trend line SPT at 5.61. start to buy at 6.2 to 5.99
TA- must hold 1.05 SPT.  sideways from 1.05 to 1.38.  wait further for a bounce before buying near 1.05


On Monday, TA Stock Rights offer at Php1 will be given. 

April 2011

Took a lot of losses this month as I am now enforcing discipline into my trading plan.  Finished the 2 part lecture on Technical Analysis provided by COL.  I find it very effective especially the observance of the 1:3 risk reward ratio. 

Despite the cut losses, the equity value on my portfolio rose to as high as 6%, mostly thanks to EDC and PX.  FDC is also now on the positive region.

Despite my earlier plan to just keep a minimum of 4 stocks to trade, I don't think it is no longer possible for me.  Right now, I am holding 8-10 stocks at a time.  About 3 of which are my core (AP, EDC, FDC, AMC), while the rest are for momentum plays.  PX is a leftover hold, yet gives me significant gain which even reached up to 30%.  URC, TA and FLI are my latest stocks and I hope they would not disappoint.  AGI has been a laggard, as I was not successful in range trading this stock.

April performance:
Cash: -0.91%
Equity:  +5.83%

March 2011 Performance

I am now going back closely to my previous high with regard to the amount of my equities.  Starting around November, Philippine stocks buckled away from its bullish trend as it underwent consolidation.  I even added up on my capital at the start of the year, which in hindsight was not good timing since prices continued to go down.

Mutual fund companies posts an average of around -3% YTD gain.  Based on my COL account, my YTD gain is -0.66%, already quite close to break-even.  If I am able to maintain this rate, dividend income coming in this April would be able to lead me out of the negative region.  This is definitely a relief for me since I have experienced reaching higher losses up to more than 10% during the first 2 months.

As per month-to-month performances, cash earnings went up by 1.23% while my total equity portfolio improved by 2.62%.  Below are the list of current stocks that I have:

Core:  (Long term investment based on growth potentials and that are heavily traded)
AP
EDC - after consolidating for many months.  It seems 2nd quarter would be EDC's time to shine.

Value: (Usually less liquid stocks but has growth potentials or is extremely undervalued)
AMC
FDC - I plan to accumulate more at 4.2 levels.  The firm would at one point, need to jack up its stock prices before its SRO.  They need to increase their float before November 2011, or else tax incentives as a listed company would be forfeited.  There are also plans for East West banks IPO this year.

Speculative:
PCOR - Bought this due to current prices of oil being high.  Unfortunately bought at a high, and I'm still not sure if it was the right thing to do during the time.  PCOR is more on oil distribution.  Could've explored more into oil drilling business instead (i.e. PERC)
PX - Bought this due to rumors on the PX and MA deals.  PX was relatively less risky as compared to MA, although I think MA should benefit more from the deal.  Latest news reveal that if ever the deal would push through, PX would get 60% while MA would get 40% on their deal on MA's mining rights.  Capital expenses would be provided by PX though.

Swing:
AGI - Trading at a range from 11.3 to 12.  I'll take advantage of it in order to lessen my losses.

February 2011

Been busy these past weeks due to midterm exams.  At least for now, I am into longer terms of trading since guarding the price movements of stocks everyday is just time-consuming.

Ms. Market at the start of March generated positive gains in my portfolio.  My February month-end report should have been on a stalemate (could've been more negative) if not for the last minute rise in prices.  Portfolio moved up by 4.14% despite actual cash loss at -0.75%.  My only sale trade for February was on the repositioning of my losing MPI stock, which I placed into PCOR for some oil play.

Here is a quick rundown my current holdings:
Core:
AP (22%) - I'm very happy now with AP because of its very very strong earnings, leading to generous cash dividends with an ex-div date this March.  I love its 1.32 per share, a 4.4% dividend yield!
EDC (21.5%) - Still struggling with this one as current prices are still below my cost.  Earnings report scheduled to come out this March 25!

Momentum Play:
AGI (16.8%) - Was able to average down once, bringing down my cost.
DMC (12.14%) - Seems to be stronger than AGI due to strong developments with Maynilad and DMCI contracts.
PX ( 11.39%) - Talks with MA/MAB for some mining projects plus an increase in Gold price led me to this decision of buying this stock.
PCOR (5.18%) - Bought this stock for some oil play.  Market generally went down due to crisis in the Midwest, which may affect oil supply in the future.

Long Term/Dividend Play:
AMC (6.36%) - Despite growth in revenues and dividends in March, this stock still sticks around the 13 peso range.
FDC (4.47%) - Quite a shame for this stock as it went down as much as near -30%!  I'm still not quite sure if I should buy more of this, perhaps if there are still available funds to infuse.  Probably needs more research on the sugar industry, East West Banking (possible IPO), and the secondary offer of shares in order to increase its outstanding shares.

Cliffhanging

Egypt is all over the news because of its own version of a People Power happening against its decades old President, Mubarak.  The Global financial market remains to be shaky as it awaits positive development over the situation.  The PSE has not been exempted from the uneasiness, as the market has dropped down by 88 points.

Surprisingly, my portfolio wasn't greatly affected as most of my holdings remained intact.  MPI, though currently at a negative, did not go down; in fact it showed strength up to the close.  As for my other "loser", FDC, it was bought up by ATR at the close (thus, just a temporary rise).

For today's trade, I was able to sell half of my MPI as it went up to 3.64, transferring risks on to EDC which went down to 5.77.  MPI has been showing strength these past few days, but I really need to start transferring my hold on to the more reliable stocks which I believe in.

For AGI, I should have sold earlier (last Friday) as my indicators already show short term weakness.  Will have to wait again when CCI reaches its top for a sell.  COL has released its latest study on AGI, and has increased its tp for this stock.  The increase in AGI's value is heavily attributed to its gaming business such as that of Resorts World, which has just opened last year.  Industry comparisons also favor AGI over its competitors (i.e. AC).

Watchlist:
One of my favorites: SCC

I should buy once it breaches towards the lower Bollinger bands.  Traded strongly on a weak market yesterday.

FDC Countermeasure

FDC broke my heart, but I still believe in the fundamentals of this stock.  The problem is that it has low float, thus can be easily abandoned by impatient short term traders.  As a consolation, at least I didn't put much yet on this stock and so there is still room to add for more, if I really choose this to be one of my core holdings. (Current core: AP and EDC).

Here is the 1 year chart where I may plan to buy more shares once an STS buy would be triggered.

Reasons why I still believe in this stock:
1.) Undervalued, with current P/E at 10x.
2.) Impending IPO for one of its earning subsidiaries: EastWest Banking.
3.) FDC plans for a 2PO but would not want to sell at current low prices.  This 2PO is needed in order to increase the company's float from less than 10% to about 33%.
4.) Intact earnings, with sugar having high prices this year.  (subsidiary: Pacific Sugar Holdings).

FDC

My first time to look at FDC's charts, I have noted that a bullish pennant has been formed.  On the next trading day, it was traded with gusto gaining impressive volume signifying a valid positive momentum.

FDC (Filinvest Development Corporation) is the parent company of FLI (Filinvest Land) and EastWest Bank.  The company is also involved in the production of sugar (Pacific Sugar Holdings Corporation).  East West Bank plans to do an IPO, probably  this year, so this should be a good thing for FDC.

Looking at the Price-Earnings ratio, FDC has increased its EPS from .23 in 2009 to .52 in 2010.  My personal TP for now would be 8.56, assuming stable growth and earnings.

I am including this stock to be among my watchlist for this year, which already include AP, DGTL and EDC.

Personal Recommendation:  BUY

Bumpy Ride Ahead

 From now on, I shall classify my holdings accdg to my investment plans.
Yesterday and today was bloody as hell.  I wasn't able to monitor today as I went out to play tennis instead hehe.  PSEi now in almost flat 4000.

Core (Long term)
AP - based on the latest candlestick, it might go down more.  RSI shows nearing oversold conditions.  Trade for profit at 28.76?
EDC - Range trading for now. 
AMC - I rarely monitor this hehe.

Momentum
AGI - If it shows strength tomorrow, it should be a good sign as it would bounce from its lowest RSI, and will confirm reversal, based on the hammer candlestick.
DMC - Break down.  May still continue descent until it gets oversold.
MPI - Must remain above its support at 3.86

watchlist
SCC -  buy at 180.  Bounce back at 178.
LND - buy at 1.46.  Stop at 1.26

Before Classes Starts

I'm trying to take advantage of what little vacation I have left, in order to be able to monitor the market.  However, the PSE seems to be on a lull.  Except for speculative stocks providing profits, the usual blues are still in consolidation mode.

A short look on my current holdings:

AGI - Waiting for a breakout at 13.16.  Failed.  Sell on Strength.
AP -  Consolidating.  Buy the Dips
DMC - Hold. Maintaining Up Trend
MPI - low volume, but still continuing up trend.
EDC - Resistance at 6.15.  HOLD for now.  Generated 2 Buy signals (MACD and DMI)

MER

I've been used to waking up early just in time to trade (before 9am), even if I have no classes (vacation!) thanks to the daily grind I had on my first trimester in grad school.  Ironically, when I planned to trade on a speculative stock like LND this morning, I wasn't able to wake up on time, missing the dramatic rise from its already high price of 1.16 to its current at 1.33. ( 14.6% rise).  I could have posted an ATO order, however, I would prefer seeing first if the stock would rise at the open.

I have also planned to blog about my readings on LND, however, slow internet prevailed once again (no thanks to SMART Bro 3g).  So this time around, as I have not updated much on this blog, I shall post my "analysis" on MER (Meralco).

I currently have about 30% cash in my portfolio, and I would like to maintain up to 3 core stocks on every trade next year.  So far, my top 3 picks for next year would be: DGTL, AP, and EDC.  These are based on their Price-to-Earnings ratio and also for the long term hold.  DGTL has been the apple of the eye of most fundamentalists, however, market sentiment hasn't catched upon just yet.  EDC is also still undervalued, however its rise is still slow for the common tsupitero.  As for AP, it has been one of the top gainers for 2010, and is posed to gain more though we shouldn't expect it to gain as big as it had before.

So going back to one of my picks for this week, MER is posed to breakout from its 206 immediate resistance, and hopefully beyond 220.

End of November --> Finals Week

The long-awaited market correction has finally come, and I have not been spared. On the beginning weeks of November, I was able to cash in profits coming from AP and ORE after a month's hold, with 33% and 20% gains respectively.

During the first dip of the market correction, AP and ORE have been among the few that didn't get affected.  I thought of selling my ORE to lock-in profits, then shift towards stocks that gained new lows; thus, shifting to DMC.  Turns out, the correction has not yet reached bottom, so for a few weeks, my portfolio went down to as far as -7%.

Though I didn't intend to, I was holding a diversified portfolio of 7 stocks; thus, was able to lessen the risks on the volatility of the market.  My hardest-hit stock is URC, which currently sports a -13% paper loss (even reaching -17%).  I can imagine now that if I would need to maintain lesser stocks in my portfolio, I also need to be critical of my cut loss points.

As of the end of November, my realized cash gains were 7.08% while the standing of my portfolio is at -5.41%.  As of this writing, on the first weekend of December, the market has bounced up, and I hope this would not be what they call a "Dead Cat Bounce".  I am looking for ways on how to reposition myself. 

So far:  (PD)

AGI - hold.  May now as well continue trending up.  Signals have just crossed on the MACD line.  This might be a good Xmas stock, as lots of people will surely flock the casinos in Pasay = good revenues. :D

URC - trading above EMA levels and nearing a MACD cross.  A hold for now, but ready to shift once a good choice would be decided upon.

DGTL - For the nth time, seems like the market is still not interested with the DGTL story.  The telco industry in general shows lackluster performance in the market.  This stock got hit by the correction, now at around 7% loss in my portfolio.  I need to reposition again from this stuck.

ORE - Supposed shipping for December has been reported to be delayed up to next year, thus stock price showed some weakness during these past days.  Although my hold for this stock are actually just residuals from a partial sale before, I really should find a window in taking profits from this.

EDC - Still at 4% paper loss.  MACD shows a resting phase, in which we may see a rise in the future if only there would be favorable news enough to push the stock price back to top.

--

Seems like I will just be holding my stocks up to year end.  My first trimester in grad school is about to end, and I have been busy again.  I hope I would have more fruitful trades next year.

Consolidation

The 2nd week of November proved to be a bloody one as the long awaited correction has finally come.  I held on mostly to my stocks since I was still busy with the midterm exams.  By the weekend, my total portfolio went down to about 5% from last month's equity.  Not bad, I guess since I now have a diversified portfolio, albeit a bit shamefully with 6 stocks hehe.  Most of which was due to some "stuck" situations leading to a hold.  I do hope I could get out quickly, to organize my portfolio to a hold of up to 3 core stocks only.

My biggest losers were EDC and URC with around 10% loss each.  EDC has been reported to be fundamentally good, despite consolidating for 2 months now.  As for URC, no news from it yet, but I think it wouldn't be able to rise back again up for my gain.  I plan to shift it towards a moving stock, perhaps like SCC; thereby, readying myself for a loss. 

Good thing I was able to sell my ORE (although not all of them), before the rundown.  This gave me a chance to buy DMC at a low (but not so low).  On the 2nd day of market decline, I thought it was already a good buy.  Only to realize days after that the correction is not yet finished.  DMC went to a low of -8% last weekend.

Today, market produced green candles, although with low volume.  I guess we're still on a consolidation phase, but at least this may signal a near reversal in the future.  This may be a reaction to Pacquiao's win over Margarito yesterday as local investors have been on a good mood. :)  Or, let's just say a lot have already been buying, thinking it's time to shop for lows.  If on Wednesday, the market would pick up again, then that would be a good signal for the rebound.

From a -5% month-to-date loss last weekend to a -1.5% loss today, I'd say my portfolio is still doing good.

A recap on my most recent trades: 
a.) AP --> AGI  :  I got out of AP thinking of a MACD cross at the top.   Only to find out that AP's reign is not over yet.  In fact, AP has been one of the few stocks still left standing despite the correction.  I think next time, it is still better to wait for the cross, then sell on strength.
b.) ORE --> DMC:  ORE still seems to be a good hold, however with the ongoing correction, I did the right thing of selling on profit and moving to a "cheaper stock".  ORE didn't have a selldown yet, while DMC went down from a near-40 to a 35.
c.) DGTL: I am comfortably positioned on this Telco, especially with a very positive 3Q earnings report.  While TEL and GLO went down, DGTL seems to pick up the pace for the industry.  Definitely a turnaround story.  Unfortunately, I just have a relatively minor hold on this stock.
d.) EDC : It's a bit hard to trade this stock for the long term.  I guess it is not yet ripe for the year.  It usually gets a parabolic rise, then consolidates roughly.  So far, fundamentalists have a good say on this stock (now that it's on its lows), so I'm still holding on for now.
e.) URC : I will just see how far it could gain on the next few days, then will surely transfer to a better moving stock.  Seems like URC has been on its high now at the 40ish range.

PD:
EDC- 23.5%  (5% paper loss)
DMC- 17.4% ( break even)
URC- 16.3% ( 9% paper loss)
AGI-  15.4%   (3% paper loss)
DGTL- 12.7% (2.2% paper gain)
AMC- 9.6%   (1% paper loss)
ORE- 3.7%  ( 19% paper gain)
cash - 2%

1 More Exam To Go...

ORE
Beware for a shooting star has been spotted.  JAP is on the buy at an average of 3.89.  I wonder if my exit should be immediate, or at least would let JAP gain some points before selling earlier than him.  Currently thinking to sell at 3.95 (today's close at 3.81) after today's high at 4.  3.95 got a volume trade of about 5%.

EDC
Waiting for a breakout… really now.

URC
Trading sideways

DGTL
Sun Cellular subscribers surpass 16M.  I knew it that this stock was going to be worth investing prior to the quarterly reports.  Now with TEL down, GLO reporting saturated growth, it's time for DGTL to shine!  Too bad, I was just scared to increase my hold on DGTL. I treated this the same way like AMC.  For the long hold.

AMC
zzzzzzzz

Midterms & October Stats

I'm currently busy with my midterm exams at Grad school.  Hopefully next week, I can be more relaxed. Come to think of it, only 1 month left before the finals!  Time does pass by so fast!  Just a few days ago, I have turned 26!

I am now trading in the mid-long term due to "busyness".  One stock that I have held for a long time (more than 1 month) is EDC.  During September, I was hoping that momentum would shift towards the energy sector, and so I had EDC, FGEN and AP.  I was able to swing trade on FGEN, and I have been very happy with my AP (30+% gain).  The only stock that I regret holding too long was with EDC.  I should've sold during its decline on the MACD.  Up to now, it is still consolidating.  I am not yet sure on when would be its next rise.

DGTL is still trending sideways.  There seems to be a wall at 1.64.  Currently on the lower downtrend of the MACD, I hope it rises soon.  I am hoping 3rd quarter earnings would be favorable; leading to its push.

URC.  Seems like this baby is now awake.  Too bad I wasn't able to increase my holdings @ around 44.  After consolidating for 3 weeks, now it seems to be on its rise.  There is a notable increase in volume. 

ORE.  After unloading my AP, ORE is now top performing stock in my portfolio.  This is a jockeyed + "buy on the news" mining stock, I am a bit anxious on how to exit, but so far still on the uptrend.  Ended today with a small hammer though.

AMC.  My long term stock.  Still waiting for its parabolic rise. Still flat for now :p
 

October Recap:
Okay, so for this month I have doubled my cash investment on stocks from last month.  My actual cash earnings is only at 1.13%, but this is mainly because I have held more onto my stocks for a medium hold.  In fact, I have just sold my AP with 33% gain a few days ago, but that would already be included into the November stats.  Factoring in a bigger portfolio, my equity equivalence gain registered at 6.78%

Now with a bigger portfolio, I tend to buy more stocks which should not be the case.  I should try to maintain at least 4 stocks only. 

I have also tested some trading tactics.  Long green candles does not ensure a good buy.  Always check for volume.

A long incoherent post for today.  Just had my 2nd exam for the midterms.  2 more to come.  At least I get to rest a bit. :)

New Challengers

Prospects:
Missed the ICT train today.  Seems like resting for a bigger push.  Bounced back down after meeting its first resistance.

MPI completes a dark cloud cover plus a MACD sell.  Currently signaling a downtrend.

SCC ended with a shooting star. Let's wait at 152.39.

PD:
Bought URC at 45.25 (buy signal from CSO), buying the dips after a long candle.  1st support from the pivot point was correct, being the lowest trade for the day.  Candlestick forms somewhat like a harami, but still maintaining on the top half of the previous day's long candle.  Buy signal from CSO, was confirmed from a MACD buy and a bullish BOS.  This trade is meant for the short term-medium term only.

AP continuing on its ascent, faced the upper resistance at 26.31. Swing traders would have sold along with doyts.  The stock ended backing down further from the lower resistance @25.23.  Currently closed at 24.8. 

EDC is still having support from foreign buys (doyts and CLSA) although JPMorgan was selling.  Still a bit 50-50 on unloading tomorrow.

CMT on a lull.  I hope I wouldn't face a cut-loss here.  It should hold at 1.8 then hopefully will shoot up breaking out at 2. :P

Can't resist, bought some milk today :)

Composition:  (Oh no, I am now holding 5 stocks.)
AMC - 12% 
AP - 18.4%  
CMT - 13.5%
EDC - 32.7%
URC- 22.7%

Today, I have increased my cash investment for another 25%.  Greedy me.  Well, this is to give way to my long term plans on certain stocks, retaining my cash investments for short term trading.