October 2011 Performance

Missed around 3 months of updating since I've been busy and the market was in a slump.  Though it was August that was declared as a "ghost month" in accordance to Chinese beliefs, market decline started a month later.

I have 2 portfolios on my Bloomberg Portfolio tracker.  The first one is on managed funds: a combination of a mutual fund via ATR Kim Eng and BDO Equity and Bond Funds.  I'm quite satisfied with my BDO Funds, it's ATR Kim Eng (aka The Mutual Fund Company) which disappoints.  I plan to redeem all my shares as soon as possible and probably shift it to other accounts.

Portfolio 1 breakdown
BDO Equity Fund:  55%
ATR Kim Eng Fund: 16%
BDO Bond Fund: 29%

I'm really happy with BDO Bond Fund as it is giving me an annualized gain of 10%.  I've got positive returns for all 4 months that I have been invested.  Although, September just gave me a close to 0 positive return, but it was generally due to a market slump.

Portfolio 2:  Self-managed Fund
July was the start of a bull run, however, news on Greece and Europe in general scared all the bulls leading to a huge drop in September.  A 2 month rally which gave me 6% in portfolio gains got erased in just a month.  At the end of October, I am still left with less than a percent difference (loss) compared to my July portfolio.

From a YTD gain of 11.5% at the end of August, my portfolio got wiped out and ended up to -2% in just a month!  I had to liquidate my long-term positions on LC and PX.  My biggest regrettable loss came from a speculative for which I did not cut loss early (WPI).  At least it was just a small position, however I lost around 50% on that.

YTD Performance: (paper)
ScIoN Fund: 3.94%
PSEi: 1.58%
ATR Kim Eng: -1.12%

In terms of cash, I have liquidated a total gain of around 5.53% already.  Reinvested profits are currently at a loss, as shown by a lower paper YTD compared to cash.  I now plan to trade only a fixed amount, and the rest would be placed into high dividend yielding stocks or to be transferred to safer investments.

I am also currently 29% cash, since the PSE is still on a sideways trend.  There seems to be a lot of good buys recently as stocks slowly get up from oversold region.  I'd say, the 4th quarter seems to be a good time to go back to the market.  I don't expect a bull run yet, but at least there are lots of upsides now as compared to the downsides.

Picks of the Week [August 15 - August 19]

Didn't blog the pats 2 weeks since I got busy with midterm exams.  August has been thought of being a bad month for stocks due to the "ghost month" effect which is predominantly a Chinese belief.   Seems like it was true enough as global markets plummeted just as the PSEi have just reached its historical high.

At the end of the 2nd week, I am very much glad that my portfolio went back up to my normal levels of paper profits.  This is all thanks to mining c/o LC and PX albeit being just a minor portion of my portfolio (at around 10% each).  I am still bullish with my current holdings, what worries me is my UITF which suffered greatly during the crash.  Technically, I should have cut my losses at this point, however, there seems to be a chance that it could also recoup its losses within the month.  Right now, it is still only the Philippine mining sector that makes the market alive.  Once the property sector kicks in, then the bullish party is on.

What is my pick for the week?  Most probably mining.

July 2011 Performance

I shall now adopt the use of NAVPS (Net Asset Value Per Share), just like the ones used in mutual funds, in monitoring the performance of my portfolio.  The reason behind this is that investment funds may come in and out of my portfolio; thus, it would be hard to automate the percentage gains and losses.  By applying a NAVPS system, the performance of the fund would no longer be dependent on the nominal value of the investment.

And so to be consistent, I have set my YTD (Year to Date) at June 2011 with a par of 1000 per share.  Anything above 1000 means a gain from my initial investment fund as of the start of the midyear.  So far this is the result:

July 2011 NAVPS:  1051.6849  --> a 5.17% gain from June.  July marked the start of the bullish trend of the PSE, as the index broke out of its consolidation pattern (sideways trend).  Hopefully, the bullish performance shall continue as I have increased my exposure in equities up to 70% (of my asset portfolio). 18% is in a bond fund and the rest on savings.

Below is the distribution of my trading portfolio c/o Bloomberg:

The biggest chunk remains to be AP (Power) which comprises 23.11% of my portfolio, followed by FDC (Holdings) and LC (Mining) at 17.67% and 13.66% respectively.

LPZ is a non-performer as I got stuck with it, but there seems to be a trend forming now, hopefully towards the upwards direction.  NI was mainly a technical play; however, I just got caught in its bullish trap.

Picks Of the Week [July 18- July22]

Last week, the PSEi opened lower for the first 2 days before shooting back up towards a new high on the last day.  Truly, I did enter into UITF Equities on a high price, but with the confirmed bullish momentum, I still feel safe and now am glad that my portfolio is already all green.  As the index is now on a new trend, I just hope it wouldn't just float sideways.

I may be busy this week and with my current holdings divided into a number of stocks, I will only concentrate on shifting my funds to the winners (those showing good positive trends).  Seems like 3rd liners are keeping the market afloat, with different kinds of news on backdoor listings.  I now keep my watch on just 1 stock this week, namely ALCO.

As shown in the Force index, there have been significant interest on this stock last Friday, breaking out from the kumo with considerable volume and a bought up price.  Big caution though, since this stock is most probably heavily jockeyed.  This is more of a short-term play, to take advantage of spiked price trades.

Good luck!

Picks of the Week [July 11-July 15]

 

I am now in the 2nd phase of my investment experiment involving the timing of the market via the use of Equity Fund investments.  1st phase was to identify and confirm that the market is on its bullish state. 

The Strong Buy indicator pointed around 5 days ago, however it took a day of hesitation plus another day to withdraw my Money Market funds before finally shifting it to Equity Fund.  The delays led me into buying at a high.

Hopefully the trend is truly bullish for at least a month (of course the longer the better) in order for me to gain.  The latest candlestick may indicate a bullish inverted hammer, which requires higher prices than today's close at 4391.  So far, Equity Fund is at -0.50%.

Right now, I am 70% invested on Equities.  With the recent bailout of Greece (although temporarily as it is also seen as a soft default) and good jobs numbers in the US, I hope next week would be another green week.  Unfortunately, as of this writing, DOW is -.97%.  Probably it is the long due correction, and the PSEi would just mind its own business.

The Philippines' business climate is rosy as ever, with favorable credit ratings (already near investment grade) and looking forward to earnings releases, these should be enough to drive the market up high.  The minor bottleneck regarding foreign ownership ratios on some companies have been resolved through PLDT's issuance of voting preferred shares.

As for my trading plan for the week (involving current holdings):

Strong Buys would be FDC and TA which I would buy on dips (5 and 1.11 respectively).

On my watchlist is ELI due to its very huge volume buy today.  If ever it gets to dip at its major SPT at .73, it would be worth looking for a buy.

June 2011 Performance

June was a rollercoaster ride as stocks went down then came back up, retracing from a slightly downward channel.  Cash out profits actually came from cash dividends based on May's ex-dates.   Good thing these dividends were bigger than my losses for the month of June.  These losses primarily were due to AT.  Ironically, it was a bear trap as AT bullied itself through becoming one of the current flavors in the market nowadays.  I nearly did the same thing with PX, fortunately I wasn't that fast enough to cut my losses yet.  PX and AT rose and broke some new highs at the end of this month.

Halfway through the month, my portfolio was at a negative diminishing all gains up to the beginning of the year.  Thankfully, there was a technical rebound bringing back my gains; and hopefully, creating a new bull session after breaking out of the channel.

My portfolio grew around 2.11% from last month, lower from May's performance of 6% (best month so far).  Anyway, a gain is a gain.

My YTD (Year to date) performance compared to the PSEindex and my mutual fund (ATR Kim Eng) is as follows:
ScIoN Fund:   4.92%
PSE Index:      1.15%
ATR KimEng: 0.61%

Pretty much very nice to see since I could somewhat say I have "beaten the market"... for now. :D  But I do know a lot more people who has more impressive portfolio gains ranging from the 20s up to near 100% gain (undiversified).

My current portfolio composition:

June
AP	22.9%
FDC	12.7%
TA	9.4%
LC	8.9%
PX	8.7%
URC	6.4%
LPZ	6.3%
MPI	3.5%
OV	3.5%
SCC	3.3%
Exposure	85.8%

As for Sector composition:
Oil & Energy: 39.09%
Mining: 17.68%
Holdings: 22.5%
Food: 6.4%
Cash: 14.2%

Picks of the Week [July 4-July 8]

Next week's going to be exciting!  Take a look at the chart below:


Breakout!! :D
1.) Above MACD zero signal line
2.) Both above sideways and immediate down trend channel
3.) Kichou span cross signaling a strong BUY
4.) Senkou span cross (leading signal)
5.) Prices trading above moving Averages. 

Perfect!
The problem is, I need to enter my funds ASAP into the BDO Equity Fund before momentum dries out.  Might take 2 days delay. :(

As for my picks next week, there are lots of them:
1.) MPI - Took profits at 3.69 but I plan to buy back for some more. :D
2.) EDC - entered earlier and my selling bids got hit.  With the strong volume earlier, this is a good re-buy.
3.) TA - a strong finish yesterday, too bad I didn't exceed my selling bid, but still I got some profit for around 12% gain.  Will buy more ammo for this one as I consider this among my core stocks.
4.) PX - another core stock, currently doing a parabolic rise.  I don't even know when to sell!  Instead, I plan to add more.
5.) GERI - Interesting volume today and a kumo breakout.  Will consider this stock once the dust clears.  (I am holding 10 stocks which is already time-consuming to manage).