Consolidation

The 2nd week of November proved to be a bloody one as the long awaited correction has finally come.  I held on mostly to my stocks since I was still busy with the midterm exams.  By the weekend, my total portfolio went down to about 5% from last month's equity.  Not bad, I guess since I now have a diversified portfolio, albeit a bit shamefully with 6 stocks hehe.  Most of which was due to some "stuck" situations leading to a hold.  I do hope I could get out quickly, to organize my portfolio to a hold of up to 3 core stocks only.

My biggest losers were EDC and URC with around 10% loss each.  EDC has been reported to be fundamentally good, despite consolidating for 2 months now.  As for URC, no news from it yet, but I think it wouldn't be able to rise back again up for my gain.  I plan to shift it towards a moving stock, perhaps like SCC; thereby, readying myself for a loss. 

Good thing I was able to sell my ORE (although not all of them), before the rundown.  This gave me a chance to buy DMC at a low (but not so low).  On the 2nd day of market decline, I thought it was already a good buy.  Only to realize days after that the correction is not yet finished.  DMC went to a low of -8% last weekend.

Today, market produced green candles, although with low volume.  I guess we're still on a consolidation phase, but at least this may signal a near reversal in the future.  This may be a reaction to Pacquiao's win over Margarito yesterday as local investors have been on a good mood. :)  Or, let's just say a lot have already been buying, thinking it's time to shop for lows.  If on Wednesday, the market would pick up again, then that would be a good signal for the rebound.

From a -5% month-to-date loss last weekend to a -1.5% loss today, I'd say my portfolio is still doing good.

A recap on my most recent trades: 
a.) AP --> AGI  :  I got out of AP thinking of a MACD cross at the top.   Only to find out that AP's reign is not over yet.  In fact, AP has been one of the few stocks still left standing despite the correction.  I think next time, it is still better to wait for the cross, then sell on strength.
b.) ORE --> DMC:  ORE still seems to be a good hold, however with the ongoing correction, I did the right thing of selling on profit and moving to a "cheaper stock".  ORE didn't have a selldown yet, while DMC went down from a near-40 to a 35.
c.) DGTL: I am comfortably positioned on this Telco, especially with a very positive 3Q earnings report.  While TEL and GLO went down, DGTL seems to pick up the pace for the industry.  Definitely a turnaround story.  Unfortunately, I just have a relatively minor hold on this stock.
d.) EDC : It's a bit hard to trade this stock for the long term.  I guess it is not yet ripe for the year.  It usually gets a parabolic rise, then consolidates roughly.  So far, fundamentalists have a good say on this stock (now that it's on its lows), so I'm still holding on for now.
e.) URC : I will just see how far it could gain on the next few days, then will surely transfer to a better moving stock.  Seems like URC has been on its high now at the 40ish range.

PD:
EDC- 23.5%  (5% paper loss)
DMC- 17.4% ( break even)
URC- 16.3% ( 9% paper loss)
AGI-  15.4%   (3% paper loss)
DGTL- 12.7% (2.2% paper gain)
AMC- 9.6%   (1% paper loss)
ORE- 3.7%  ( 19% paper gain)
cash - 2%

1 More Exam To Go...

ORE
Beware for a shooting star has been spotted.  JAP is on the buy at an average of 3.89.  I wonder if my exit should be immediate, or at least would let JAP gain some points before selling earlier than him.  Currently thinking to sell at 3.95 (today's close at 3.81) after today's high at 4.  3.95 got a volume trade of about 5%.

EDC
Waiting for a breakout… really now.

URC
Trading sideways

DGTL
Sun Cellular subscribers surpass 16M.  I knew it that this stock was going to be worth investing prior to the quarterly reports.  Now with TEL down, GLO reporting saturated growth, it's time for DGTL to shine!  Too bad, I was just scared to increase my hold on DGTL. I treated this the same way like AMC.  For the long hold.

AMC
zzzzzzzz

Midterms & October Stats

I'm currently busy with my midterm exams at Grad school.  Hopefully next week, I can be more relaxed. Come to think of it, only 1 month left before the finals!  Time does pass by so fast!  Just a few days ago, I have turned 26!

I am now trading in the mid-long term due to "busyness".  One stock that I have held for a long time (more than 1 month) is EDC.  During September, I was hoping that momentum would shift towards the energy sector, and so I had EDC, FGEN and AP.  I was able to swing trade on FGEN, and I have been very happy with my AP (30+% gain).  The only stock that I regret holding too long was with EDC.  I should've sold during its decline on the MACD.  Up to now, it is still consolidating.  I am not yet sure on when would be its next rise.

DGTL is still trending sideways.  There seems to be a wall at 1.64.  Currently on the lower downtrend of the MACD, I hope it rises soon.  I am hoping 3rd quarter earnings would be favorable; leading to its push.

URC.  Seems like this baby is now awake.  Too bad I wasn't able to increase my holdings @ around 44.  After consolidating for 3 weeks, now it seems to be on its rise.  There is a notable increase in volume. 

ORE.  After unloading my AP, ORE is now top performing stock in my portfolio.  This is a jockeyed + "buy on the news" mining stock, I am a bit anxious on how to exit, but so far still on the uptrend.  Ended today with a small hammer though.

AMC.  My long term stock.  Still waiting for its parabolic rise. Still flat for now :p
 

October Recap:
Okay, so for this month I have doubled my cash investment on stocks from last month.  My actual cash earnings is only at 1.13%, but this is mainly because I have held more onto my stocks for a medium hold.  In fact, I have just sold my AP with 33% gain a few days ago, but that would already be included into the November stats.  Factoring in a bigger portfolio, my equity equivalence gain registered at 6.78%

Now with a bigger portfolio, I tend to buy more stocks which should not be the case.  I should try to maintain at least 4 stocks only. 

I have also tested some trading tactics.  Long green candles does not ensure a good buy.  Always check for volume.

A long incoherent post for today.  Just had my 2nd exam for the midterms.  2 more to come.  At least I get to rest a bit. :)

Left Behind

My original plan of selling CMT and shifting it to SCC (or DGTL) was a good one.  Unfortunately, today's gap up for SCC (at around 10 pesos higher!) got me left behind.  SCC was consolidating and so I thought it would take a day or two for movement yet.  I guess, prices below EMA should be a good buy sign for SCC from now on.  I am hearing tp's ranging from 200-250, still far way off at the current price.  I still vow to enter, probably on the next wave.

Aside from not being able to ride SCC, my next bet was DGTL and I had my order posted at 1.56.  The fish didn't bite as it only went down to 1.57.  I'll probably wait for Tuesday again to enter.

Unfortunately for my CMT, it even went up high today reaching 2 levels!  Damn, call that an insult hehehe.  Well, it happens.

Tuesday, Oct 26 will be the debut of Cebu Pac's IPO in the stock market.  I hope it does well as I have URC in my portfolio.  My professor isn't attracted with CEB, and advised to go away for the meantime from Gokongwei stocks due to this.  Let's see what happens.

Next week, is another busy one for me!  5 more case studies (will be presenting 2) and our very first exam on a Saturday.  Wish me luck! :)

Cement Stuck

Got into a bull trap with CMT almost a month ago, after buying the stock in response to its long green candle the previous day.  Right now, as the market is consolidating, I have decided to take my loss and hopefully position to a more reliable stock.  I am starting to analyze some financial reports on these companies, and cement stocks like CMT may be as speculative as the mining stocks.  With the bull market today, I would rather place my bets on the usual winners.

Earlier this morning, there was a bomb threat at the PSE building; thus, trading got halted.  I have posted my sale order for CMT at 1.86, then suddenly Asia Sec bought up at the close, from the trading price of 1.81 to 1.88.  I think this had also happened during the past few days as CMT was trading at low volume, but maintained green candles at the close.  Something's cooking in here, but I'd rather stay away from now.  It may be possible that CMT will go high in the coming days, but this may just be because of a jockey.

Meanwhile, my "buy on the news" ORE have reached a max paper gain of 11% on its 3rd day!  Although it has already retracted back at 3.43 at the close.  When I was still monitoring the market this morning, ORE was at the 3.53 level.  It would have stayed that way if only PSE did not resume trading at 1pm hehe. 

Checking on the time sales, looks like JAP has started unloading his ORE.  hmm...  or maybe the weak hands are starting to fall off? ;)  ORE shows a shooting star. :-?

EDC seems to be still in consolidation.  pfffft.

URC seems to be another bull trap for me.  Although at least I got in with the first dip, so so far, not yet too far away from my entry.  Low volume trades put this into a Trade the Range.


Prospects (shift from CMT loss):
SCC - foreigns are still selling (JPMorgan & ATR).  Temporary gains might still be weak.  Trade the Range.
DGTL - I still want to take revenge on this stock. hehehe.  Formed a hangman on today's trade, showing indecisiveness.  It might be up or down for tomorrow.  Macquarie seems to be accumulating.  I am buying on the first dip.

Ole Ore!

Last night, after finishing my part on the case study of Reagan Deficits, I noticed that a friend who works for ORE posted at Market Mirror some pictures of actual mining developments.  If his info is correct, shipments are currently in preparation, which means cash for the company + shareholders.

At the open of today's trade, ORE's prices increased starting from 3.14 up to a high of 3.22.  I nearly chased all the way up, good thing I didn't as prices went back down to 3.16 at around 10am.  3.16 was the first pivot point for this week, and so I considered buying.  The stock played further down to 3.13 and then settled at 3.15.

Judging the charts, it is still on the uptrend and have rested a bit.  I am hoping by tomorrow, it would break out from 3.25 given the significant increase in volume today.  MTM2 indicator also shows a positive.

Gus Cosio has been an advocate of ORE about a month ago, as he relies on the "story".  It is also good to note that FAMI (whom Gus may be affiliated to) has ORE on its list of stocks for its Equity program.

PD:  Oh no! 6 Stocks!
AMC - 9.76% 
AP - 15.68%  
CMT - 11%
EDC - 25.24%
URC- 17.89%
ORE - 18.93%

AP remains to be my cash cow for now.

New Challengers

Prospects:
Missed the ICT train today.  Seems like resting for a bigger push.  Bounced back down after meeting its first resistance.

MPI completes a dark cloud cover plus a MACD sell.  Currently signaling a downtrend.

SCC ended with a shooting star. Let's wait at 152.39.

PD:
Bought URC at 45.25 (buy signal from CSO), buying the dips after a long candle.  1st support from the pivot point was correct, being the lowest trade for the day.  Candlestick forms somewhat like a harami, but still maintaining on the top half of the previous day's long candle.  Buy signal from CSO, was confirmed from a MACD buy and a bullish BOS.  This trade is meant for the short term-medium term only.

AP continuing on its ascent, faced the upper resistance at 26.31. Swing traders would have sold along with doyts.  The stock ended backing down further from the lower resistance @25.23.  Currently closed at 24.8. 

EDC is still having support from foreign buys (doyts and CLSA) although JPMorgan was selling.  Still a bit 50-50 on unloading tomorrow.

CMT on a lull.  I hope I wouldn't face a cut-loss here.  It should hold at 1.8 then hopefully will shoot up breaking out at 2. :P

Can't resist, bought some milk today :)

Composition:  (Oh no, I am now holding 5 stocks.)
AMC - 12% 
AP - 18.4%  
CMT - 13.5%
EDC - 32.7%
URC- 22.7%

Today, I have increased my cash investment for another 25%.  Greedy me.  Well, this is to give way to my long term plans on certain stocks, retaining my cash investments for short term trading.