March 2012

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)

YTD:  +18.20%
Benchmark: +16.2%

March was a generally good trading month for me since my portfolio increased for another 6% in just 2 weeks.  I was able to realize gains from ANI, TEL and PXP.  TA cash dividends has also arrived.  Biggest portfolio movers maintain to be FDC and MARC.  However, on the latter part of the month, MARC had a big correction going down to 3.  I'm currently 2% above my benchmark, so I'm happy with my first quarter performance so far.

I'm still bullish for our local market; however, I'm waiting for another correction of the market.  Index was able to maintain the positive trend channel which started January this year.  But, comparing it with the MACD indicator, there seems to be a negative divergence.  The ScIoN fund is currently 21% cash, so if ever there would be a major dip, I'd have enough ammo to buy.


AJC Fund (short term fund)
YTD (2 months):  -0.68%
Benchmark: +4.4%

The AJC Fund reached its all-time high of a +4.17% mid-March thanks to MARC (High of 3.52); however, as mentioned earlier, it went back down to 3. Since the portfolio is less diversified as compared to the ScIoN fund, volatility is higher at this point. I exited MARC at 3 with a gain of around 8%.  Last month's losses (-2.97%) were recovered and now, portfolio is at a near break-even (-0.68%). 


The challenge here is to beat the benchmark portfolio.  It includes EDC, BEL and MPI which were big gainers for March; thus, having a good run this month (4.4%).  I had entered AGI; however, price movement turned out to be a bull trap.  I'm having Cash ready at 70%, waiting to jump in when the market corrects.  

February 2012

ScIoN Fund (mid-long term)


YTD: 12.64%
Benchmark (PSEi): 11.4%

The following is the composition of my trading portfolio: (as of Feb 29, 2012)

February saw the rise of FDC and I hope that it will still continue.  With its book value still far below market, plus the planned IPO of EWB, I am still holding this stock perhaps before or after a planned secondary IPO or private placement will be announced.

I have repositioned my portfolio a little bit away from mining stocks (PX, LC/B) and slowly diversified to other sectors.  My exposure to mining is now limited to MARC which seems to be a good prospect as based on its report on earnings and operations.

Oil has now been an issue due to the news on Iran. I choose PXP to be a good mid-long term stock.  I just hope that they would no longer require equity financing as it would shake down the stock's market prices.  A lot of companies had been undergoing private placements lately, and the market has not responded too well on such kind of news, at least for the short-term.

Unexpectedly, TA announced another SRO this year which dragged down the prices; thus, hitting my sell indicators.  Seems like TA is maintaining a debt-capital ratio of around 40:60 (max).  I still like this stock since it is both Power and Oil play.  Although I expect market prices to go down as effect to the news on SRO.

February was a good month as it extended gains.  My portfolio reached a max YTD of 15% until profit-taking happened during the latter days of the month.  I think we'll be under a consolidaton phase for 1-2 more weeks before we get to see any action.  Good thing I'm 20% cash right now, I'll practice range trading and will also start accumulating for the strong index stocks.

AJC Fund (short term)

YTD: -2.97%
Benchmark: -1.4%

Much of the loss was attributed to the sudden SRO news on TA which caused it to drop to as low as 1.12 from 1.31.  Fundamentals of TA is still good and intact, however, my strategy for the AJC Fund would be more on short-mid term unlike the ScIoN fund which is mid-long term.

The run-up of stocks was for those who already had positions at the end of January.  Positioning in February was a bit tricky, a lot of setups became bull/bear traps.  For now, I have positioned the fund into 30% MARC, short term on SLI (15%) and the rest on cash.  There are still oddlots on EDC and BEL which I can't dispose, so I'll just leave them there for now.

The Benchmark portfolio is based on the original portfolio when it was handed over to me.  Assuming if I did not change anything, YTD is at -1.4%.

Personal Finance (Start of 2012)

As part of my quest in properly managing my finances, I aim to monitor my whole personal portfolio and see to it that I am properly diversified.  I have created this composition chart for easier visualization.  I don't have any fixed assets (real estate/ condo) nor have a business portfolio yet.  Basically, my personal portfolio is wholly an investment portfolio.

Components:

ScIoN Fund - this is my trading portfolio wherein I invest and trade on Philippine equities.  Right now, YTD performance (>1 month) is at 12%.  If I am able to consistently outperform the PSE index and most MF/UITFs, then I'd consider increasing my allocation of funds here.

Equity Managed Funds - A larger chunk invested in professionally managed Funds such as BDO Equity (YTD: 6.5%)and ATR Kim Eng Mutual Fund (YTD: 1%).  I only plan to place funds here when I am bullish; thus, only for the short term.  Clearly, ATR MF is underperforming that I plan to shift funds from it to somewhere better.

Bond Funds - A safety measure for me as I have already invested almost 70% of my portfolio into equities.  Bond Funds will provide a hedge against too much volatility in the market.  Bond Funds are good for medium term investments which can give around 5-10% annual yields.  (YTD: 0.4%)

Money Market - In terms of liquidity, this is the best alternative for me than putting money into Time Deposits/SDAs or worse, Savings accounts which only give negligible interest rates.  Although right now,  allocation is at 0% since I am still transitioning funds into the other accounts.  Most of my money in the bank is also in BDO, and it is comparatively harder to shift funds from savings accounts to their other bank products such as UITFs.  Unlike with BPI, they have done a great job with their online investment capability.

Savings - My main bank is currently BDO since it's very near my current residence and also due to sentimental reasons (been with PCI Bank since the late 90s).  Convenience and availability is OK, but innovation is lacking.  There is a chance I might have a major shift to BPI due to more efficient systems and processes such as their online banking.  Savings account will only be maintained for emergency and liquidity purposes; thus, I plan to minimize exposure here.

January 2012

ScIoN Fund

The following is the composition for my trading portfolio as of Feb 3, 2012:

I am happy to say that except for FDC which I still have a cost at 3.94, all of the other stocks are on a positive.  The Philippine Index is doing good that only a few funds have exceeded its current 8.81% YTD gain.  The ScIoN fund registers 9.01%, just a few notches above the index'.

AJC Fund

Starting this February, I will also hold another portfolio which is being handed over to me by a friend.  He was not able to monitor his stocks and was already around 12% down.  I'll be rebalancing his portfolio which can take a few more trading days to sell the losers and hopefully buy the winners.    He has already lost a total of around Php60,000 and it would be my pleasure to turn this loss into a gain.    We're in a bullish market nowadays, and that's why I'm confident that I can do it! :D

This is his portfolio when it was given to me.  Average price is his cost, while Market price was the current price during that day.



As of Feb 3, 2012,  I have already sold APC@.72 and BEL@4.73.  Bought TA@1.31.

Portfolio down by 0.76% relative to its market value on day 1.

2011 Year End Report

From last year's 12.37% gain (5 months), my stock portfolio only managed to sneak in a disappointing 2.06% YTD gain.  It was during September when Euro debt fears affected the global markets that my 11.49% YTD went down to a -2.41% loss in just one month.  Prices bounced back a little by December.

At the start of the year, I have positioned myself into AP, EDC, TA and FDC as my long term stock holdings.  Unfortunately, the power industry rested from its bullish run after the 2009 financial crash.  I did gain from EDC until I sold all on May when it broke its moving average supports.  My "Power play" was a bit early. As for FDC, it delayed its follow-on offering due to unfavorable market conditions.  The Euro Debt scare is still very much alive, and it pulls down overall market sentiment despite good Philippine fundamentals.

My best earners were (more than 10%): URC (21%), PX (19%), FOOD (19%), LC (52%).
Dividend givers (cash more than 1k): URC (~4.6%), EDC (~2.8%), AP (~4.66%), PXP (in the form of shares from PX)
Worst losses (more than 10%): MPI (-13%), PCOR (-12%), LPZ (-11.6%), LC (-18.7%), PX (-13.7%), WPI (-41.8%), ELI (-13.4%), MEG (-11.8%)

I have been using more Technical Analysis lately, and the good thing is, I have managed to improve in the money management department.  Cutting losses is hard to do, but it's best to cut losses early than to realize it when it's already too late.  By the middle of the year, I have started using Ichimoku Kinkou Hyou, aka kumo (cloud) trading.  It's a visual guide for me to determine supports and resistances, and to see trend reversals and breakouts.

I used to try and limit my holdings to just a few stocks, but given a lot of chart breakouts lately, I diversified into a lot.  Especially during the time the PSE was moving sideways.  I may reconsider again now that we are on quasi-bullish mode (a little more to confirm).  I also try to practice turtle trading, for which I buy a position and take some profits when targets have been reached, leaving behind some shares for further run-up.

This is the whole pie of my trading portfolio (23% of my whole Investment Port):

Seems like the theme for my trading portfolio would be power, oil and mining.  I'm still hoping FDC would start going up this first quarter of the year.




My Investment Portfolio is divided into:

Equities (66%)
-BDO Equity Fund (33%) :  -2.13%   * was caught in a bull trap when I entered last May.
-COL trading account (23%): +2.06%  * August dip led my once YTD 12% down to a negative in just a month.  My long term stocks actually kicked in a little bit late, now at the start of 2012.
-ATR Mutual Fund (10%):   -1.6% *My very first investment 4 years ago which is actually on a gain of 41%


Bonds (18%) 
-BDO Bond Fund (18%): +5.17% *Instead of investing on balanced funds, you can allocate your own through Bond and Equity Funds.

Savings Account (16%) *Still on the process of transferring funds from here to other investments.  Should only leave money here for liquidity purposes.

Overall, my portfolio is still intact.  I may not have earned a lot this year, but I can say that I have improved greatly.  What is important is that I now have my own trading system for Technical Analysis.  I will still stick with fundamentals especially for long term "conviction" holds.

Before the Year 2011 Ends

Supposed to be a November 2011 report, however, it's almost mid-December already and trading days may be halved due to the holidays.  With the ongoing sideways movement of the PSE market, I have started liquidating my earlier positions then enter using technical trends.  Due to the sudden downtrend last September, a lot of stocks started reversing towards a positive trend and so I see this as an opportunity to recalibrate my portfolio.

Below is the new composition of my portfolio.  I have significantly reduced my position in AP due to its laggardness (been holding it for a year) and entered into a lot of faster moving stocks.  I did a lot of short term trades lately and I think I'm doing relatively well considering I'm faster in cutting my losses short and taking profits.  I now practice turtle trading, and I love it!  November losses were neutralized, though a lot of cut-loss trades are yet to come this December care of my repositioning in AP and the more recent drop in PX (due to the Ongpin insider trading hearings).

 I know before that I vowed to limit my stock holdings into probably 5 only; however, my new strategy is to apply trailing stops and take profits at breakout levels.  I do have to remind myself that this would be for a sideways market.  Not sure if this would be doubly effective on a bullish one.

In terms of my Fund Performance, I still beat the index but only more than a 100 basis points.
PSEi:  2.13%
ScIoN: 3.30%


One of the main reasons for my Fund's underperformance (from expected) is the delay in FDC's follow-on offering.  I just hope the Gotianuns or whoever their equities guy is, would start pumping up FDC prices, to be able to offer to the public by 1st quarter next year.

October 2011 Performance

Missed around 3 months of updating since I've been busy and the market was in a slump.  Though it was August that was declared as a "ghost month" in accordance to Chinese beliefs, market decline started a month later.

I have 2 portfolios on my Bloomberg Portfolio tracker.  The first one is on managed funds: a combination of a mutual fund via ATR Kim Eng and BDO Equity and Bond Funds.  I'm quite satisfied with my BDO Funds, it's ATR Kim Eng (aka The Mutual Fund Company) which disappoints.  I plan to redeem all my shares as soon as possible and probably shift it to other accounts.

Portfolio 1 breakdown
BDO Equity Fund:  55%
ATR Kim Eng Fund: 16%
BDO Bond Fund: 29%

I'm really happy with BDO Bond Fund as it is giving me an annualized gain of 10%.  I've got positive returns for all 4 months that I have been invested.  Although, September just gave me a close to 0 positive return, but it was generally due to a market slump.

Portfolio 2:  Self-managed Fund
July was the start of a bull run, however, news on Greece and Europe in general scared all the bulls leading to a huge drop in September.  A 2 month rally which gave me 6% in portfolio gains got erased in just a month.  At the end of October, I am still left with less than a percent difference (loss) compared to my July portfolio.

From a YTD gain of 11.5% at the end of August, my portfolio got wiped out and ended up to -2% in just a month!  I had to liquidate my long-term positions on LC and PX.  My biggest regrettable loss came from a speculative for which I did not cut loss early (WPI).  At least it was just a small position, however I lost around 50% on that.

YTD Performance: (paper)
ScIoN Fund: 3.94%
PSEi: 1.58%
ATR Kim Eng: -1.12%

In terms of cash, I have liquidated a total gain of around 5.53% already.  Reinvested profits are currently at a loss, as shown by a lower paper YTD compared to cash.  I now plan to trade only a fixed amount, and the rest would be placed into high dividend yielding stocks or to be transferred to safer investments.

I am also currently 29% cash, since the PSE is still on a sideways trend.  There seems to be a lot of good buys recently as stocks slowly get up from oversold region.  I'd say, the 4th quarter seems to be a good time to go back to the market.  I don't expect a bull run yet, but at least there are lots of upsides now as compared to the downsides.