Picks of the Week [June 6-June 10]

Last week, my sole pick was PX for the continuation of the mining play and for the PPC dividend, a way of listing by introduction of Philex Petroleum.  I did buy PX on the first 2 days of the week, doubling my position in the process.    PX prices was volatile as it reached a low of 20 to a high of 21.75.  Closing price was at 20.45, a bit lower than my average cost at 20.58.  21.75 can be set as a Resistance for now, and I aim to unload some shares near that price.

As the PSEi only shows a sideways trend, with current prices seem to be correcting, I am looking to sell most of my current holdings.  Selling at strength, to protect and to realize profits.  If ever the index breaks that range resistance, then I'm definitely putting up all of my other cash into BDO's Equity fund. :D

On the weekly charts, AT seems to be this week's top pick due to the BUY signal generated from its MACD oscillator.  Its immediate RST at 18.2 may be hurdled upon for a breakout.  Not to be outdone by the mining trio, PX/LC/MA which had gained a lot these past few weeks,  AT has a story of its own in the name of the Berong Nickel mines.

May 2011 Performance

I'm getting the hang of using excel and so I hope that my posts and record-keeping will be more organized.  I had 14 trades for the month of May, quite a lot for a month I guess.  Well, I really had the time to trade since it's our summer break.

Month to month performance:

Equity rose by 6%.  

1.68% of it were realized through cash.

For what matters most is my YTD (Year to Date) Performance in which I reinvested all my gains from last year:

Realized gains is at 2.88%.

Equity at 2.76%.

--> Equity percentage being lower than the realized gain, means that my portfolio is a bit down due to the currently sideways market.

Composition of stocks

AP	21.0%	-2.38%
FDC	13.0%	-1.61%
TA	9.7%	-14.86%	SRO shares not yet included which would reduce the loss.
LC	9.1%	6.13%
PX	8.9%	-0.94%
URC	8.8%	14.42%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
AT	6.8%	1.19%
LPZ	6.5%	-2.24%
SCC	3.4%	-4.43%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
Exposure	87.1%

 

 Remaining 12.9% is Cash which is pretty much standard for me as this is the allocated portion for my "revolving fund".  The colored figures on the right is the actual standing of my holdings, whether it is up or on the negative.

The next table shows my exposure with respect to industry.

Power	24.4%
AP	21%
SCC	3.4%
Oil	9.7%
TA	9.7%
Mining	24.8%
LC	9.1%
PX	8.9%
AT	6.8%
Holdings	19.4%
FDC	13.0%
LPZ	6.5%
Commodities
URC	8.8%

  Shows that I am now a bit heavy on Mining and Power which when combined takes half of my portfolio.  I was able to get out of certain stocks which I held for a long time.  Most of my current stocks are relatively new ones, and that explains why most are in the red -- due to slight correction.  I got shaked out of EDC, which was one of my core stocks.  Unfortunately for me, it was just a bear trap when it touched 6.3s going back up to as high as 6.8.

I can say I am more confident with my portfolio as compared to before.  All thanks to technical analysis and some trend following pointers I have learned.  Looking forward to the coming days!

Picks of the Week [May 30-June 3]

My choices for last week were BEL and AT.  However, due to the general slump of last week's index these 2 stocks also followed in the decrease of stock prices.  BEL for last week was more of a "cautious buy" since there have been no breakouts yet.  During the first 2 days of trading, prices went back to support level; thus, no buy orders were made.

As for AT, I made a mistake interpreting the chart.  My labeling of a "bullish flag" was incorrect, and should have just been a range trade.  As a result, I entered at a slight high of 17.70, instead of just waiting at a lower price near 17.21.  Good thing I entered with just a small position.

For this week, I only have 1 pick and it is PX.  With the upcoming stock dividend in terms of new PPC (Philex Petroleum) shares and a breakout for a new high w/ volume, this is definitely a top pick for me.  I entered with a small position because I felt I was a bit late, even buying at the close.  I guess that's the price to pay with holding a lot of stocks (more or less 10), gives difficulty in terms of monitoring.  Since this is a strong buy for me, I am still waiting for dips near 20.  I just saw the 10 year chart and wow, in hindsight, PX has been a very good investment through the years!

For this week, I tried using the weekly charts instead of just the dailies.  This would be a great exercise for me to not only be dependent on daily charts.  Besides, if I am going to speculate for 1 week, it makes more sense to use the weeklies.

And since I had some sort of trouble monitoring all my current holdings plus waiting for "promising" stocks, this time around, I'll just concentrate first with what I already have.

SELL
EDC- sell on strength.  slower upward channel after breaking UT. RST at 7.17 but might fall down to 5.67. [sell at 6.52 or 6.38]
SCC - correction- downward channel .  sell at RST at 222.26 or at least 214.11. Possible to go down further

HOLD
AP- downward channel to sideways since Nov 10. Range trade SPT at 25.86, lighten at 32.7.  Major SPT at 23.45 (130SMA). 
FDC- major RST at 7.7 (old high). UT still intact and in line with 130SMA.  Start buying if it reaches at least 4.8.  Weak DMI (+)
URC- potential cup and handle. major RST at 46.9 (high). SPT at 65 SMA at 37.79.

Strong BUY
LC- strong DMI (+).  cautiously buy at .78 (dips).  SPT at .74; RST at .93
PX - strong DMI (+).  breakout from new high.  buy near 20 SPT.

Cautious BUY
AT - sideways to up.  R1: 17.68; R2: 20.17.  major SPT at 14.86.  wait for breakout to buy (hammer and buy MACD signal). 
LPZ - UT intact.  retesting major RST 6.6. DMI gaining strength (+).  trend line SPT at 5.61. start to buy at 6.2 to 5.99
TA- must hold 1.05 SPT.  sideways from 1.05 to 1.38.  wait further for a bounce before buying near 1.05


On Monday, TA Stock Rights offer at Php1 will be given. 

Picks of the Week [May 23-27]

A review on last week's picks:
1.) CEB - maintained its support at 93.77 and is still slowly going up.  I did not pursue getting in since I am not yet comfortable with the fundamentals of the airline industry.  Yet, out of the picks last week, this is the only stock that remained true to its promise (technically).
2.) JGS- Despite breaking out from its previous high, this stock formed a bull trap instead of moving up.  A bit strange since CEB and URC have been performing well recently.  There might be news that I am not aware of.  I saw weakness since the start of the week; thus, did not pursue in getting in.  Now it's back at gaining momentum in order to break the same resistance.
3.) ELI - It's really hard to apply technical analysis on a speculative stock, especially with weak/erratic volume.  Breakout was a failure as prices went back into range trading.

Maybe next time, I should study the weekly charts instead of the dailies for my Picks of the Week.


Picks of the Week [May 23-27] - still using daily charts though

1.) BEL - Crossed the MACD zero line having a minor breakout and with considerable volume.  Support at 5.6 and Resistance at 6.1.  Possible range trading for now.  A breakout from resistance would be a strong Buy.  BEL has been consolidating since the start of the year after soaring along with LR for its casino play.  There had been a delay with their plans which resulted to this sideway trend.  Seems like the jockeys are in play.

2.) AT - The trading halt of the trio PX/LC/MA last May 11 gave AT some chance to absorb the greed of those who wanted to enter Mining.  As trading resumed for the 3 stocks, AT remained to gain momentum for at least 3 days before having some slight correction.   AT has broken out from its downward trend and has formed a bullish flag with a long pole.  Seems like AT is now catching up with its peers after being a laggard for months.

Picks of the Week [May 16-20]

Mining play is still hot, but I expect further retracement after last week's disclosure on PX, LC and MA.  For this week, seems like Gokongwei stocks are poised to impress.

1.) CEB - Clearly shows a turnaround months after the infamous IPO at 125.  Now, with oil prices expected to go down, this is a chance for this budget airline's stock to go back up.  Going back to 125/share as it is reportedly the fair value of the company? Charts show a breakout from resistance which would lead to at least  115 in the short term.

2.) JGS - Already breached its a new high; the sky might be the limit for this stock.  As observed with the stock prices of its subsidiaries, particularly CEB and URC, the mother hen would likely go up.  Not to mention DGTL's movement on June which could finally go beyond 1.6/share after PLDT buys what it promised.

 

 

3.) ELI - Not a Gokongwei stock, but instead a Tan's.  Charts show that it's time to shine for this one as it broke out of a descending triangle with considerable volume.  MACD is already in a positive region.

 

 

 

Let's see what would be my batting average for this week.

Caveat! :)

7 Month Breakout for Lopez Holdings

Entered today on LPZ due to a breakout from a 7-month high.  As shown in the DMI, the up trend is strong; thus, would likely to continue further.  Breakout point is at 6.62, and ATR has been heavily buying at 6.66.  Hopefully they would provide enough support before the stock price goes high.  Prices closed strongly at 6.7.

On the fundamental side, MVP expressed his intent on increasing his hold on MER.  This may be one of the reasons for its bullish stride since LPZ is ready to sell its remaining stake of the power distribution company at a premium.  I think it is somewhere around 300-350 per share or even higher. (related news - Jan 2011).  On the contrary, as I was scouring the net for the latest news on the possible sale, it seems like the Lopez group would still like to hold on to its remaining board seat in Meralco. (news as of May 11 2011).  Interesting, huh?

Anyway, even without the Meralco story, LPZ have solid earnings coming from its subsidiaries such as ABS and FPH (parent of power generator FGEN).  Though for the comparison of earnings between 2009 and 2010, it should be noted that FPH has sold some of its shares of MER to the Pangilinan group (non-recurring income).  For the long term, LPZ can also be a turnaround story as they aim to wipe out their 100 million deficit by this year. 

This is just a momentum play for me now.  Will apply some trend following rules.

April 2011

Took a lot of losses this month as I am now enforcing discipline into my trading plan.  Finished the 2 part lecture on Technical Analysis provided by COL.  I find it very effective especially the observance of the 1:3 risk reward ratio. 

Despite the cut losses, the equity value on my portfolio rose to as high as 6%, mostly thanks to EDC and PX.  FDC is also now on the positive region.

Despite my earlier plan to just keep a minimum of 4 stocks to trade, I don't think it is no longer possible for me.  Right now, I am holding 8-10 stocks at a time.  About 3 of which are my core (AP, EDC, FDC, AMC), while the rest are for momentum plays.  PX is a leftover hold, yet gives me significant gain which even reached up to 30%.  URC, TA and FLI are my latest stocks and I hope they would not disappoint.  AGI has been a laggard, as I was not successful in range trading this stock.

April performance:
Cash: -0.91%
Equity:  +5.83%