My original plan of selling CMT and shifting it to SCC (or DGTL) was a good one. Unfortunately, today's gap up for SCC (at around 10 pesos higher!) got me left behind. SCC was consolidating and so I thought it would take a day or two for movement yet. I guess, prices below EMA should be a good buy sign for SCC from now on. I am hearing tp's ranging from 200-250, still far way off at the current price. I still vow to enter, probably on the next wave.
Aside from not being able to ride SCC, my next bet was DGTL and I had my order posted at 1.56. The fish didn't bite as it only went down to 1.57. I'll probably wait for Tuesday again to enter.
Unfortunately for my CMT, it even went up high today reaching 2 levels! Damn, call that an insult hehehe. Well, it happens.
Tuesday, Oct 26 will be the debut of Cebu Pac's IPO in the stock market. I hope it does well as I have URC in my portfolio. My professor isn't attracted with CEB, and advised to go away for the meantime from Gokongwei stocks due to this. Let's see what happens.
Next week, is another busy one for me! 5 more case studies (will be presenting 2) and our very first exam on a Saturday. Wish me luck! :)
Friday, October 22, 2010
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Cement Stuck
Got into a bull trap with CMT almost a month ago, after buying the stock in response to its long green candle the previous day. Right now, as the market is consolidating, I have decided to take my loss and hopefully position to a more reliable stock. I am starting to analyze some financial reports on these companies, and cement stocks like CMT may be as speculative as the mining stocks. With the bull market today, I would rather place my bets on the usual winners.
Earlier this morning, there was a bomb threat at the PSE building; thus, trading got halted. I have posted my sale order for CMT at 1.86, then suddenly Asia Sec bought up at the close, from the trading price of 1.81 to 1.88. I think this had also happened during the past few days as CMT was trading at low volume, but maintained green candles at the close. Something's cooking in here, but I'd rather stay away from now. It may be possible that CMT will go high in the coming days, but this may just be because of a jockey.
Meanwhile, my "buy on the news" ORE have reached a max paper gain of 11% on its 3rd day! Although it has already retracted back at 3.43 at the close. When I was still monitoring the market this morning, ORE was at the 3.53 level. It would have stayed that way if only PSE did not resume trading at 1pm hehe.
Checking on the time sales, looks like JAP has started unloading his ORE. hmm... or maybe the weak hands are starting to fall off? ;) ORE shows a shooting star. :-?
EDC seems to be still in consolidation. pfffft.
URC seems to be another bull trap for me. Although at least I got in with the first dip, so so far, not yet too far away from my entry. Low volume trades put this into a Trade the Range.
Prospects (shift from CMT loss):
SCC - foreigns are still selling (JPMorgan & ATR). Temporary gains might still be weak. Trade the Range.
DGTL - I still want to take revenge on this stock. hehehe. Formed a hangman on today's trade, showing indecisiveness. It might be up or down for tomorrow. Macquarie seems to be accumulating. I am buying on the first dip.
Earlier this morning, there was a bomb threat at the PSE building; thus, trading got halted. I have posted my sale order for CMT at 1.86, then suddenly Asia Sec bought up at the close, from the trading price of 1.81 to 1.88. I think this had also happened during the past few days as CMT was trading at low volume, but maintained green candles at the close. Something's cooking in here, but I'd rather stay away from now. It may be possible that CMT will go high in the coming days, but this may just be because of a jockey.
Meanwhile, my "buy on the news" ORE have reached a max paper gain of 11% on its 3rd day! Although it has already retracted back at 3.43 at the close. When I was still monitoring the market this morning, ORE was at the 3.53 level. It would have stayed that way if only PSE did not resume trading at 1pm hehe.
Checking on the time sales, looks like JAP has started unloading his ORE. hmm... or maybe the weak hands are starting to fall off? ;) ORE shows a shooting star. :-?
EDC seems to be still in consolidation. pfffft.
URC seems to be another bull trap for me. Although at least I got in with the first dip, so so far, not yet too far away from my entry. Low volume trades put this into a Trade the Range.
Prospects (shift from CMT loss):
SCC - foreigns are still selling (JPMorgan & ATR). Temporary gains might still be weak. Trade the Range.
DGTL - I still want to take revenge on this stock. hehehe. Formed a hangman on today's trade, showing indecisiveness. It might be up or down for tomorrow. Macquarie seems to be accumulating. I am buying on the first dip.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Ole Ore!
Last night, after finishing my part on the case study of Reagan Deficits, I noticed that a friend who works for ORE posted at Market Mirror some pictures of actual mining developments. If his info is correct, shipments are currently in preparation, which means cash for the company + shareholders.
At the open of today's trade, ORE's prices increased starting from 3.14 up to a high of 3.22. I nearly chased all the way up, good thing I didn't as prices went back down to 3.16 at around 10am. 3.16 was the first pivot point for this week, and so I considered buying. The stock played further down to 3.13 and then settled at 3.15.
Judging the charts, it is still on the uptrend and have rested a bit. I am hoping by tomorrow, it would break out from 3.25 given the significant increase in volume today. MTM2 indicator also shows a positive.
Gus Cosio has been an advocate of ORE about a month ago, as he relies on the "story". It is also good to note that FAMI (whom Gus may be affiliated to) has ORE on its list of stocks for its Equity program.
PD: Oh no! 6 Stocks!
AMC - 9.76%
AP - 15.68%
CMT - 11%
EDC - 25.24%
URC- 17.89%
ORE - 18.93%
AP remains to be my cash cow for now.
At the open of today's trade, ORE's prices increased starting from 3.14 up to a high of 3.22. I nearly chased all the way up, good thing I didn't as prices went back down to 3.16 at around 10am. 3.16 was the first pivot point for this week, and so I considered buying. The stock played further down to 3.13 and then settled at 3.15.
Judging the charts, it is still on the uptrend and have rested a bit. I am hoping by tomorrow, it would break out from 3.25 given the significant increase in volume today. MTM2 indicator also shows a positive.
Gus Cosio has been an advocate of ORE about a month ago, as he relies on the "story". It is also good to note that FAMI (whom Gus may be affiliated to) has ORE on its list of stocks for its Equity program.
PD: Oh no! 6 Stocks!
AMC - 9.76%
AP - 15.68%
CMT - 11%
EDC - 25.24%
URC- 17.89%
ORE - 18.93%
AP remains to be my cash cow for now.
Monday, October 11, 2010
New Challengers
Prospects:
Missed the ICT train today. Seems like resting for a bigger push. Bounced back down after meeting its first resistance.
MPI completes a dark cloud cover plus a MACD sell. Currently signaling a downtrend.
SCC ended with a shooting star. Let's wait at 152.39.
PD:
Bought URC at 45.25 (buy signal from CSO), buying the dips after a long candle. 1st support from the pivot point was correct, being the lowest trade for the day. Candlestick forms somewhat like a harami, but still maintaining on the top half of the previous day's long candle. Buy signal from CSO, was confirmed from a MACD buy and a bullish BOS. This trade is meant for the short term-medium term only.
AP continuing on its ascent, faced the upper resistance at 26.31. Swing traders would have sold along with doyts. The stock ended backing down further from the lower resistance @25.23. Currently closed at 24.8.
EDC is still having support from foreign buys (doyts and CLSA) although JPMorgan was selling. Still a bit 50-50 on unloading tomorrow.
CMT on a lull. I hope I wouldn't face a cut-loss here. It should hold at 1.8 then hopefully will shoot up breaking out at 2. :P
Can't resist, bought some milk today :)
Composition: (Oh no, I am now holding 5 stocks.)
AMC - 12%
AP - 18.4%
CMT - 13.5%
EDC - 32.7%
URC- 22.7%
Today, I have increased my cash investment for another 25%. Greedy me. Well, this is to give way to my long term plans on certain stocks, retaining my cash investments for short term trading.
Missed the ICT train today. Seems like resting for a bigger push. Bounced back down after meeting its first resistance.
MPI completes a dark cloud cover plus a MACD sell. Currently signaling a downtrend.
SCC ended with a shooting star. Let's wait at 152.39.
PD:
Bought URC at 45.25 (buy signal from CSO), buying the dips after a long candle. 1st support from the pivot point was correct, being the lowest trade for the day. Candlestick forms somewhat like a harami, but still maintaining on the top half of the previous day's long candle. Buy signal from CSO, was confirmed from a MACD buy and a bullish BOS. This trade is meant for the short term-medium term only.
AP continuing on its ascent, faced the upper resistance at 26.31. Swing traders would have sold along with doyts. The stock ended backing down further from the lower resistance @25.23. Currently closed at 24.8.
EDC is still having support from foreign buys (doyts and CLSA) although JPMorgan was selling. Still a bit 50-50 on unloading tomorrow.
CMT on a lull. I hope I wouldn't face a cut-loss here. It should hold at 1.8 then hopefully will shoot up breaking out at 2. :P
Can't resist, bought some milk today :)
Composition: (Oh no, I am now holding 5 stocks.)
AMC - 12%
AP - 18.4%
CMT - 13.5%
EDC - 32.7%
URC- 22.7%
Today, I have increased my cash investment for another 25%. Greedy me. Well, this is to give way to my long term plans on certain stocks, retaining my cash investments for short term trading.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Money in Milk
1 of my professors in grad school this term loves talking about stocks. He even usually incorporates stock trading into our lessons (Financial Reporting). Today, he gave an interesting stock tip which would be shunned upon by short term traders due to its illiquidity. AMC.
As a finance professor who often consults for companies, analyzing balance sheets and cash flows, it is expected that fundamental analysis is his basis on trading stocks. He showed to us the company's balance sheet, pointing out recurring profits and ZERO debt. As he says, a company without debt, never goes bankrupt. Another good reason to buy this stock is due to accumulation of foreign broker namely,"Doyts".
AMC has a life on its own, whether on a bull or a bear market. Of course, to take advantage of the bull market, this wouldn't be your top pick. But, most portfolio managers would include stocks such as this to provide support even during bearish times.
Another stock fundamentalists love is DGTL, although for now, it is still currently on a stalemate due to the buying and selling of the foreign brokers. He pointed out that he also plans to accumulate slowly on this stock.
Other favorites of his include AT, URC and BPI.
As a finance professor who often consults for companies, analyzing balance sheets and cash flows, it is expected that fundamental analysis is his basis on trading stocks. He showed to us the company's balance sheet, pointing out recurring profits and ZERO debt. As he says, a company without debt, never goes bankrupt. Another good reason to buy this stock is due to accumulation of foreign broker namely,"Doyts".
AMC has a life on its own, whether on a bull or a bear market. Of course, to take advantage of the bull market, this wouldn't be your top pick. But, most portfolio managers would include stocks such as this to provide support even during bearish times.
Another stock fundamentalists love is DGTL, although for now, it is still currently on a stalemate due to the buying and selling of the foreign brokers. He pointed out that he also plans to accumulate slowly on this stock.
Other favorites of his include AT, URC and BPI.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
AP, AP and Away!
My "shooting star" call yesterday on AP was a dud. Shooting stars should have long tails. Good thing I was able to monitor the market today as AP had a blast raising the roof up to 20.45, to a close of 20.35. I plan to hold as permissible, probably buying the dips on this stock. AP outperformed my other "Power bets", EDC and FGEN. Right now, I should be comfortable to hold on to this stock and hopefully be able to correctly read the candlesticks before pulling out.
SCC: I was able to get off SCC at 157 since i noticed Doyts has been unloading piece by piece on the ticker. Did a good thing as the stock closed at 154.8 today. I'll be waiting at 150.95 to reenter.
FGEN: At around 11am, FGEN charts still feeling the resistance at 14.44, and so I decided to sell at 14.12. Will wait for MACD charts to tell a buy signal before re-entering.
EDC shows a small hammer. I hope this pushes the stock price up by tomorrow! MACD suggests it is still in consolidation mode. If ever price increases by tomorrow, it might generate a buy signal.
CMT is the black sheep on my portfolio. Seems like not much is happening with the cement stocks.
PD:
EDC - 1/3
AP - 1/6
CMT - 1/6
cash 1/3
SCC: I was able to get off SCC at 157 since i noticed Doyts has been unloading piece by piece on the ticker. Did a good thing as the stock closed at 154.8 today. I'll be waiting at 150.95 to reenter.
FGEN: At around 11am, FGEN charts still feeling the resistance at 14.44, and so I decided to sell at 14.12. Will wait for MACD charts to tell a buy signal before re-entering.
EDC shows a small hammer. I hope this pushes the stock price up by tomorrow! MACD suggests it is still in consolidation mode. If ever price increases by tomorrow, it might generate a buy signal.
CMT is the black sheep on my portfolio. Seems like not much is happening with the cement stocks.
PD:
EDC - 1/3
AP - 1/6
CMT - 1/6
cash 1/3
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Window for Selling
Some comments of my portfolio:
CMT is still consolidating. Wrong move since funds used here came from my sale of MPI which has increased to 4.11 today. MPI has now a buy signal based on MACD.
AP shows a shooting star, sell asap for a swing. Currently at 22.15, plan is to submit a sell order at 22.3 (yesterday's trading price with 17% volume) or higher.
EDC, still consolidating. Plan to sell shares bought at 5.99 (50%) to reduce some load.
It was a good thing I still have some SCC left in my portfolio. Buy the dips on the first rung of fibonacci. 4 consecutive green candles. Perhaps tomorrow would be its last run. Just waiting for a sell signal.
FGEN, slight gap up but with a shooting star. Still trading sideways.
Looks like tomorrow is a selling spree for me! :)
CMT is still consolidating. Wrong move since funds used here came from my sale of MPI which has increased to 4.11 today. MPI has now a buy signal based on MACD.
AP shows a shooting star, sell asap for a swing. Currently at 22.15, plan is to submit a sell order at 22.3 (yesterday's trading price with 17% volume) or higher.
EDC, still consolidating. Plan to sell shares bought at 5.99 (50%) to reduce some load.
It was a good thing I still have some SCC left in my portfolio. Buy the dips on the first rung of fibonacci. 4 consecutive green candles. Perhaps tomorrow would be its last run. Just waiting for a sell signal.
FGEN, slight gap up but with a shooting star. Still trading sideways.
Looks like tomorrow is a selling spree for me! :)
Saturday, October 2, 2010
September Ends
Quite a fruitful trading month for me. For my actual cash gains, I managed to net 7.26% relative to last month's closing equity value of my portfolio. If I cash out everything on September's end (I am currently holding 5 stocks), I could increase it to 9.87%.
Recap:
August (5.13% cash earnings; 2.69% End of the month equity value)
- For this month, gains in equity value was lesser than actual cash earnings due to a slump in the market at month's end. Gains were credited from a long position at ALI (1month) and a momentum trade with MPI (10 days). Getting out of JGS too early, when it was on an uptrend was a mistake. I was just too hasty in taking profits after being stuck with the stock for nearly a month. Got a bit lucky with 3rd liners NI and ORE with an attempt in range trading. Nearly got bitten by an ORE downtrend but was able to escape at break-even.
September (7.26% cash earnings; 9.87% End of the month equity value)
- Significant improvement in trades. Played shifting with some 7 stocks on the momentum. Implemented some top slicing on my core stocks such as SCC and EDC. Swift gains coming from ALI and MPI.
==
DS foresees some major correction on October as the August and September markets have been in overbought conditions. I have increased my cash positions which would be reflected on this month. Cautious trades are advised. Now that I am busy with my graduate studies, I plan to try to implement a buy and hold strategy on fundamentally good stocks, starting with the power sector.
PD:
EDC - 30%
AP- less than 20%
CMT - less than 20%
FGEN - less than 20%
SCC - more than 5%
cash - more than 5%
(note: CMT is a "cement stock", while SCC is a cross between power and mining)
Recap:
August (5.13% cash earnings; 2.69% End of the month equity value)
- For this month, gains in equity value was lesser than actual cash earnings due to a slump in the market at month's end. Gains were credited from a long position at ALI (1month) and a momentum trade with MPI (10 days). Getting out of JGS too early, when it was on an uptrend was a mistake. I was just too hasty in taking profits after being stuck with the stock for nearly a month. Got a bit lucky with 3rd liners NI and ORE with an attempt in range trading. Nearly got bitten by an ORE downtrend but was able to escape at break-even.
September (7.26% cash earnings; 9.87% End of the month equity value)
- Significant improvement in trades. Played shifting with some 7 stocks on the momentum. Implemented some top slicing on my core stocks such as SCC and EDC. Swift gains coming from ALI and MPI.
==
DS foresees some major correction on October as the August and September markets have been in overbought conditions. I have increased my cash positions which would be reflected on this month. Cautious trades are advised. Now that I am busy with my graduate studies, I plan to try to implement a buy and hold strategy on fundamentally good stocks, starting with the power sector.
PD:
EDC - 30%
AP- less than 20%
CMT - less than 20%
FGEN - less than 20%
SCC - more than 5%
cash - more than 5%
(note: CMT is a "cement stock", while SCC is a cross between power and mining)
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