Waiting for the Bull [June 27-July 1]

I guess "pick of the week"s (POWs), which are heavily based on Technical analysis, are effective only on a bullish market since all you have to do is pick the fastest horse.  As for a sideways market, anything goes.  Fundamental analysis is still champion.  And of course on a down market, just avoid, take profits and cash out.

I'm around 20% cash right now, waiting for confirmation of a bull market.  Right now, prices seem to be near resistance and I hope it will break.  I'm waiting at around 4340 before I go bullish.  Still thinking if I'm willing to put 90% of my assets into equities by then.

This week, stellar performance shown by the mining sector, especially AT and PX.  Too bad I got out with AT with a loss, good thing I still have my PX.  Seems like one can't be wrong with a long position in mining.

Picks of the Week [June 21-June 24]

This week's a short one due to today's holiday with respect to the Philippines' National Hero, Dr. Jose Rizal on his 150th birthday.  I wouldn't mind the short trading time since the market is still on sideways anyway.

I am still guarding in on my current holdings, not being able to check a lot of stock charts for this week.  The stock that I have that seems to have potential in going up would be AP as evidenced by the strong close last Friday.

Investors should be wary though, since this may only be temporary especially when forced closings are not sustainable.  But looking on Friday's data, S.B. Securities and DBP-Daiwa were responsible from the sudden jump of the stock's prices, considerably with volume.  I see this as a bullish sign.  Interestingly, DBP-Daiwa seems to be shifting its funds to AP and SCC, both of which I have.

*  I am happy to discover ChartNexus which offers its charting software for free, with PSE data also available.  If only its add-on, XpertTrader is also free, then I would be able to automate my trading system. hehehe

Picks of the Week [June 13-June 17]

The Market still does not seem good especially with the near-200 hundred drop in DOW at the end of this week.  PSEi might follow suit and break the support at 4180.

Last week's pick did not fare well as AT touched support at 16.9.  I have to cut my losses on this stock, unless it suddenly goes up on Monday.  Volume on Wednesday shows that sellers might still follow through.

I am sort of bearish since last week, but I have noticed MER's technicals to be good.  MACD buy signal plus a cross on 20SMA over 50SMA confirming the up trend.  There have been news reports about a possible joint project with one of Warren Buffet's investment firms regarding LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas).  Some developments regarding increase of rates and decrease in fees might have helped in making the prices go up.  I tried entering last week at 266, but couldn't catch up as it went straight to 279.  Will wait further on dips at 272.4.

Picks of the Week [June 6-June 10]

Last week, my sole pick was PX for the continuation of the mining play and for the PPC dividend, a way of listing by introduction of Philex Petroleum.  I did buy PX on the first 2 days of the week, doubling my position in the process.    PX prices was volatile as it reached a low of 20 to a high of 21.75.  Closing price was at 20.45, a bit lower than my average cost at 20.58.  21.75 can be set as a Resistance for now, and I aim to unload some shares near that price.

As the PSEi only shows a sideways trend, with current prices seem to be correcting, I am looking to sell most of my current holdings.  Selling at strength, to protect and to realize profits.  If ever the index breaks that range resistance, then I'm definitely putting up all of my other cash into BDO's Equity fund. :D

On the weekly charts, AT seems to be this week's top pick due to the BUY signal generated from its MACD oscillator.  Its immediate RST at 18.2 may be hurdled upon for a breakout.  Not to be outdone by the mining trio, PX/LC/MA which had gained a lot these past few weeks,  AT has a story of its own in the name of the Berong Nickel mines.

May 2011 Performance

I'm getting the hang of using excel and so I hope that my posts and record-keeping will be more organized.  I had 14 trades for the month of May, quite a lot for a month I guess.  Well, I really had the time to trade since it's our summer break.

Month to month performance:

Equity rose by 6%.  

1.68% of it were realized through cash.

For what matters most is my YTD (Year to Date) Performance in which I reinvested all my gains from last year:

Realized gains is at 2.88%.

Equity at 2.76%.

--> Equity percentage being lower than the realized gain, means that my portfolio is a bit down due to the currently sideways market.

Composition of stocks

AP	21.0%	-2.38%
FDC	13.0%	-1.61%
TA	9.7%	-14.86%	SRO shares not yet included which would reduce the loss.
LC	9.1%	6.13%
PX	8.9%	-0.94%
URC	8.8%	14.42%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
AT	6.8%	1.19%
LPZ	6.5%	-2.24%
SCC	3.4%	-4.43%	Gains from Cash dividends yet to be recognized
Exposure	87.1%

 

 Remaining 12.9% is Cash which is pretty much standard for me as this is the allocated portion for my "revolving fund".  The colored figures on the right is the actual standing of my holdings, whether it is up or on the negative.

The next table shows my exposure with respect to industry.

Power	24.4%
AP	21%
SCC	3.4%
Oil	9.7%
TA	9.7%
Mining	24.8%
LC	9.1%
PX	8.9%
AT	6.8%
Holdings	19.4%
FDC	13.0%
LPZ	6.5%
Commodities
URC	8.8%

  Shows that I am now a bit heavy on Mining and Power which when combined takes half of my portfolio.  I was able to get out of certain stocks which I held for a long time.  Most of my current stocks are relatively new ones, and that explains why most are in the red -- due to slight correction.  I got shaked out of EDC, which was one of my core stocks.  Unfortunately for me, it was just a bear trap when it touched 6.3s going back up to as high as 6.8.

I can say I am more confident with my portfolio as compared to before.  All thanks to technical analysis and some trend following pointers I have learned.  Looking forward to the coming days!