Watchlist (April 25-29)

Here is my watchlist for the trading after the Holy Week (April 25-29).  Updated comments are in Blue (as of day 1 - April 25)

Will try to update this later, and see if my analyses have been correct. These are based on technical analysis.

Watchlist:
Immediate:
FDC - buy more at 4.91 - Stingy bid as the lowest price for the day is 5.02 (heavily weighted at 5.05). Closed at 5.07 (day 1)
MPI - buy if breakout from 5 mo. downtrend at 3.93 sell if 3.79 (nearing breakout level)
EDC - buy if breakout at 6.83.  Sell if bounce down.  SPT at 6.5(bounce from ST trendline support)
MA - buy 15k at 0.036 31% fib retracement after high volume - lowest was .037. maintain bid. closed at .039
URC - 36.13 madc uptrend and buy  - 37.2 (fib 38% from high); bought at 37.25, closed at 37.4 (day1) buy again if it exceeds 37.48. TP : 40
TA - buy at 1.3 (50% retracement and at support) 25k - lowest at 1.31 close at 1.34
AGI - SELL -   11.94 - day's high was only up to 11.92
MEG - breakout ascending triangle - 2.37 strong trend from DMI 25k (verify FA) - buy less than 2.41 strong DMI; TP: 2.54
RLC - breakout from 5 mo. downtrend.  buy at 13.38 (verify FA) - change buy at near SPT 13.04. channel to sideways at 13.96
LPZ - 5.75 breakout from previous high and after a flag. off to bullish DMI - opened at 5.84; close at 6.04.  weak dmi.  Just wait until it corrects to 5.78
FLI- breakout from 5 month downtrend. buy at 1.27 - buy at 1.3  - 1x risk. opened at 1.32 high at 1.35

Indifferent:
HLCM - buy at support at 12.62.  low volume though - Open and Close 13; highest at 13.4. sideways with RST at 13.85
CMT - buy if convincing volume/breakout. currently at ST support 1.64 - rising wedge leading to sideways.  must not break 1.62
BEL -  (sm owned 66%)  Casino project by end of year  - support for sideways  catch for falling knives at 5.31 RST at 6.11 - sideways at 5.32 to 6.12 (day 1 close at 5.67) buy at 5.47
PX - HOLD; sell if cross with 16SMA - sell if below 17.67, else LT TP at 19.42

Avoid:
LC- .524 -50% retracement - too high - revisit if at .56
LCB - .57 50% retracement - too high - revisit if near .64
SCC - down trend channel -revisit if near 230
ICT - 45.39 (still on a high) overbought - revisit if it reaches 47
SECB - revisit if it breakouts 98 

ORE - avoid - 5 mo downtrend

TA

Finally, was able to attend COL's Technical Analysis seminar (part I).  The TA seminars are usually scheduled on the afternoon; and since now is my summer vacation, I already have time to attend.  Part I focuses more on the trends and patterns in charts.  Oscillators and indicators have not been discussed yet.

Though I have self-taught myself in TA, there are still lot of methods I have to correct on my system.

Speaking of TA, its namesake stock has already breached its breakout point coming from a symmetrical triangle.  This, considering with an increased volume is a definite BUY for me.  I have posted my GTC order at its 50% fibonacci drop off.  I hope I could get some before it goes high flying soon.

March 2011 Performance

I am now going back closely to my previous high with regard to the amount of my equities.  Starting around November, Philippine stocks buckled away from its bullish trend as it underwent consolidation.  I even added up on my capital at the start of the year, which in hindsight was not good timing since prices continued to go down.

Mutual fund companies posts an average of around -3% YTD gain.  Based on my COL account, my YTD gain is -0.66%, already quite close to break-even.  If I am able to maintain this rate, dividend income coming in this April would be able to lead me out of the negative region.  This is definitely a relief for me since I have experienced reaching higher losses up to more than 10% during the first 2 months.

As per month-to-month performances, cash earnings went up by 1.23% while my total equity portfolio improved by 2.62%.  Below are the list of current stocks that I have:

Core:  (Long term investment based on growth potentials and that are heavily traded)
AP
EDC - after consolidating for many months.  It seems 2nd quarter would be EDC's time to shine.

Value: (Usually less liquid stocks but has growth potentials or is extremely undervalued)
AMC
FDC - I plan to accumulate more at 4.2 levels.  The firm would at one point, need to jack up its stock prices before its SRO.  They need to increase their float before November 2011, or else tax incentives as a listed company would be forfeited.  There are also plans for East West banks IPO this year.

Speculative:
PCOR - Bought this due to current prices of oil being high.  Unfortunately bought at a high, and I'm still not sure if it was the right thing to do during the time.  PCOR is more on oil distribution.  Could've explored more into oil drilling business instead (i.e. PERC)
PX - Bought this due to rumors on the PX and MA deals.  PX was relatively less risky as compared to MA, although I think MA should benefit more from the deal.  Latest news reveal that if ever the deal would push through, PX would get 60% while MA would get 40% on their deal on MA's mining rights.  Capital expenses would be provided by PX though.

Swing:
AGI - Trading at a range from 11.3 to 12.  I'll take advantage of it in order to lessen my losses.

MUSX --> Greenergy

I have been constantly looking for stocks to trade, either for value investing or for some punting.  Even before when I was just simulating my trades, I have been playing around with MUSX since it has a little bit of predictability on its share prices.  Short term trading is possible since the price of the shares are not that volatile.

What piqued my interest with this stock is on its future plans as a company.  Based on recent disclosures, MUSX is already divesting from its semiconductor businesses, and is actually changing its name from Music Semiconductors to Greenergy Holdings, Inc.  The new name seems to be connected to renewable energy.

I am thinking, at current levels, the stock may be so undervalued given the potential of the company's rebirth. If one buys at 0.067, even small amounts of increase would give tenfolds of profit.  Interesting...

I just don't know what are the possible effects of a high free float level (96%).  This lessens the financial flexibility of the company in terms of equity issues.

Below is the chart for MUSX:

Note that the MACD and RSI show a bearish divergence pattern.  I just don't know if it would hold true in the future.  I wish I could have insider info on this. :D

February 2011

Been busy these past weeks due to midterm exams.  At least for now, I am into longer terms of trading since guarding the price movements of stocks everyday is just time-consuming.

Ms. Market at the start of March generated positive gains in my portfolio.  My February month-end report should have been on a stalemate (could've been more negative) if not for the last minute rise in prices.  Portfolio moved up by 4.14% despite actual cash loss at -0.75%.  My only sale trade for February was on the repositioning of my losing MPI stock, which I placed into PCOR for some oil play.

Here is a quick rundown my current holdings:
Core:
AP (22%) - I'm very happy now with AP because of its very very strong earnings, leading to generous cash dividends with an ex-div date this March.  I love its 1.32 per share, a 4.4% dividend yield!
EDC (21.5%) - Still struggling with this one as current prices are still below my cost.  Earnings report scheduled to come out this March 25!

Momentum Play:
AGI (16.8%) - Was able to average down once, bringing down my cost.
DMC (12.14%) - Seems to be stronger than AGI due to strong developments with Maynilad and DMCI contracts.
PX ( 11.39%) - Talks with MA/MAB for some mining projects plus an increase in Gold price led me to this decision of buying this stock.
PCOR (5.18%) - Bought this stock for some oil play.  Market generally went down due to crisis in the Midwest, which may affect oil supply in the future.

Long Term/Dividend Play:
AMC (6.36%) - Despite growth in revenues and dividends in March, this stock still sticks around the 13 peso range.
FDC (4.47%) - Quite a shame for this stock as it went down as much as near -30%!  I'm still not quite sure if I should buy more of this, perhaps if there are still available funds to infuse.  Probably needs more research on the sugar industry, East West Banking (possible IPO), and the secondary offer of shares in order to increase its outstanding shares.

Mining Play

I did this before with ORE and was quite successful with it.  Lately, MA has been enjoying substantial increase on its prices due to the news that PX has been interested on one of its mines.  I am tempted to get some MA shares because of this, but as soon as PX had a mysterious drop yesterday, PX seemed like a bargain for me.

I was able to buy near the low at 14.3, with ATR being a major seller this morning.  Despite the positive news on the earnings of PX and the nearing ex-dividend this March, major brokers (foreign) went out and shifted towards AEV.  The MCPI has reportedly adjusted the weights of involved stocks, and AEV greatly benefitted from it.  Meanwhile, ICT and PX bore the decrease in prices due to the lessening of their weights.

I used my "sideline" money in buying PX and some of PCOR (oil play).  I've got to replace this ASAP.  Possible sources would be from AGI (good thing prices went up for a gain) and DMC (slightly negative).

January 2011 Performance

I have increased my equity by 50% at the start of this year.  Though I am becoming more confident with myself as a trader with at least a few months of experience, the market isn't as good as it was 2 years ago (right after the subprime mess).

I will try to remain 20% (equivalent to my max hold to 1 stock) in cash on hand as my revolving fund.  One that could help me go in and out of a stock for better market timing.  Whenever I plan to shift my funds from one stock to another, this revolving fund would act as proxy and should be replenished as soon as I have finished buying and selling the 2 stocks.  This should add discipline to my trades.

For my first month of trading this year, it has been a tough one with recurring market declines.  Some even call it as the January effect.  Counting in the 25% increase due to added infusion of funds, I was able to get cash profits of only 0.56% of my total portfolio. 

January was a month for the 3rd liners, basically composed of speculative stocks.  At least I had a small bite with the "trash" play when I had a 1-day trade of ELI, and was rewarded with a 14% stock return.  However, I made a costly mistake with MPI, buying at its high.  I did some cut loss (not yet finished), which eventually narrowed down my month's profit margin.

Total equity dropped by 8%, mostly because of my hold on MPI and FDC.

Summary:
Cash gain:  0.56%
Portfolio gain:  -8%

Slowly but surely, I am trying to practice more with my TA with the use of different indicators aside from the common MACD and RSI:
DMI
STS
RVI
CCI
Parabolic SAR

I hope I could get better with this.

Here's a look on the latest chart on the PSEi.