Monday, November 15, 2010

Consolidation

The 2nd week of November proved to be a bloody one as the long awaited correction has finally come.  I held on mostly to my stocks since I was still busy with the midterm exams.  By the weekend, my total portfolio went down to about 5% from last month's equity.  Not bad, I guess since I now have a diversified portfolio, albeit a bit shamefully with 6 stocks hehe.  Most of which was due to some "stuck" situations leading to a hold.  I do hope I could get out quickly, to organize my portfolio to a hold of up to 3 core stocks only.

My biggest losers were EDC and URC with around 10% loss each.  EDC has been reported to be fundamentally good, despite consolidating for 2 months now.  As for URC, no news from it yet, but I think it wouldn't be able to rise back again up for my gain.  I plan to shift it towards a moving stock, perhaps like SCC; thereby, readying myself for a loss. 

Good thing I was able to sell my ORE (although not all of them), before the rundown.  This gave me a chance to buy DMC at a low (but not so low).  On the 2nd day of market decline, I thought it was already a good buy.  Only to realize days after that the correction is not yet finished.  DMC went to a low of -8% last weekend.

Today, market produced green candles, although with low volume.  I guess we're still on a consolidation phase, but at least this may signal a near reversal in the future.  This may be a reaction to Pacquiao's win over Margarito yesterday as local investors have been on a good mood. :)  Or, let's just say a lot have already been buying, thinking it's time to shop for lows.  If on Wednesday, the market would pick up again, then that would be a good signal for the rebound.

From a -5% month-to-date loss last weekend to a -1.5% loss today, I'd say my portfolio is still doing good.

A recap on my most recent trades: 
a.) AP --> AGI  :  I got out of AP thinking of a MACD cross at the top.   Only to find out that AP's reign is not over yet.  In fact, AP has been one of the few stocks still left standing despite the correction.  I think next time, it is still better to wait for the cross, then sell on strength.
b.) ORE --> DMC:  ORE still seems to be a good hold, however with the ongoing correction, I did the right thing of selling on profit and moving to a "cheaper stock".  ORE didn't have a selldown yet, while DMC went down from a near-40 to a 35.
c.) DGTL: I am comfortably positioned on this Telco, especially with a very positive 3Q earnings report.  While TEL and GLO went down, DGTL seems to pick up the pace for the industry.  Definitely a turnaround story.  Unfortunately, I just have a relatively minor hold on this stock.
d.) EDC : It's a bit hard to trade this stock for the long term.  I guess it is not yet ripe for the year.  It usually gets a parabolic rise, then consolidates roughly.  So far, fundamentalists have a good say on this stock (now that it's on its lows), so I'm still holding on for now.
e.) URC : I will just see how far it could gain on the next few days, then will surely transfer to a better moving stock.  Seems like URC has been on its high now at the 40ish range.

PD:
EDC- 23.5%  (5% paper loss)
DMC- 17.4% ( break even)
URC- 16.3% ( 9% paper loss)
AGI-  15.4%   (3% paper loss)
DGTL- 12.7% (2.2% paper gain)
AMC- 9.6%   (1% paper loss)
ORE- 3.7%  ( 19% paper gain)
cash - 2%

Monday, November 8, 2010

1 More Exam To Go...

ORE
Beware for a shooting star has been spotted.  JAP is on the buy at an average of 3.89.  I wonder if my exit should be immediate, or at least would let JAP gain some points before selling earlier than him.  Currently thinking to sell at 3.95 (today's close at 3.81) after today's high at 4.  3.95 got a volume trade of about 5%.

EDC
Waiting for a breakout… really now.

URC
Trading sideways

DGTL
Sun Cellular subscribers surpass 16M.  I knew it that this stock was going to be worth investing prior to the quarterly reports.  Now with TEL down, GLO reporting saturated growth, it's time for DGTL to shine!  Too bad, I was just scared to increase my hold on DGTL. I treated this the same way like AMC.  For the long hold.

AMC
zzzzzzzz

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Midterms & October Stats

I'm currently busy with my midterm exams at Grad school.  Hopefully next week, I can be more relaxed. Come to think of it, only 1 month left before the finals!  Time does pass by so fast!  Just a few days ago, I have turned 26!

I am now trading in the mid-long term due to "busyness".  One stock that I have held for a long time (more than 1 month) is EDC.  During September, I was hoping that momentum would shift towards the energy sector, and so I had EDC, FGEN and AP.  I was able to swing trade on FGEN, and I have been very happy with my AP (30+% gain).  The only stock that I regret holding too long was with EDC.  I should've sold during its decline on the MACD.  Up to now, it is still consolidating.  I am not yet sure on when would be its next rise.

DGTL is still trending sideways.  There seems to be a wall at 1.64.  Currently on the lower downtrend of the MACD, I hope it rises soon.  I am hoping 3rd quarter earnings would be favorable; leading to its push.

URC.  Seems like this baby is now awake.  Too bad I wasn't able to increase my holdings @ around 44.  After consolidating for 3 weeks, now it seems to be on its rise.  There is a notable increase in volume. 

ORE.  After unloading my AP, ORE is now top performing stock in my portfolio.  This is a jockeyed + "buy on the news" mining stock, I am a bit anxious on how to exit, but so far still on the uptrend.  Ended today with a small hammer though.

AMC.  My long term stock.  Still waiting for its parabolic rise. Still flat for now :p
 
October Recap:
Okay, so for this month I have doubled my cash investment on stocks from last month.  My actual cash earnings is only at 1.13%, but this is mainly because I have held more onto my stocks for a medium hold.  In fact, I have just sold my AP with 33% gain a few days ago, but that would already be included into the November stats.  Factoring in a bigger portfolio, my equity equivalence gain registered at 6.78%

Now with a bigger portfolio, I tend to buy more stocks which should not be the case.  I should try to maintain at least 4 stocks only. 

I have also tested some trading tactics.  Long green candles does not ensure a good buy.  Always check for volume.

A long incoherent post for today.  Just had my 2nd exam for the midterms.  2 more to come.  At least I get to rest a bit. :)