Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Pivot Points

I am now trying to make use of pivot points to determine my buy and sell signals.  I also confirm if these signals would act as support or resistances by using Fibonacci Retracements.

For my first try, I felt that MPI would reach a resistance and would eventually go back down.MPI pivot point was at 3.92, but I mistakenly saw Doyts selling MPI on the ticker, making me sell at 3.87.  The stock price actually reached 3.95 before going down to 3.80 at the close.

On the buy side, I waited for the nearest lower pivot point to be my buy signal.  As I left the terminal at around 11am, I was no longer expecting my orders to be hit.  As I have finally arrived back home, I'm surprised that my portfolio is currently brimming with new stocks: AP, CMT and additional shares of EDC. Since I started posting these orders at around 1030am, my entry prices are more or less equivalent to closing prices.

I am still bullish with the power sector as evidenced by my more than half of my stocks: EDC, FGEN and AP.  CMT is a "cement stock" which are currently in play right now.  This time, I wouldn't want to miss the train (assuming it still remains on the green).

So far, my portfolio is still on the green thanks to my hold with EDC and FGEN.  By tomorrow, we shall see if my decision of entering to AP and CMT would actually pay off.up:gucci handbags

PD: (considering 50% increase in cash investment)
EDC - 30%
AP- less than 20%
CMT - less than 20%
FGEN - less than 20%
SCC - more than 5%
cash - more than 5%

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Short Term -> Medium Term

I started trading while being a bum and so I had plenty of time playing with the stock market.  Now that graduate studies eat most of my time,  I think it is now time to shift from short term trading to medium term.  My definition for medium term would be at least 1 week to 1 month.up:gucci handbags

Anyway, September has been good to me as I was able to lock in greater profits as compared to my maiden month.  Being bullish in this market, I have increased my stakes hoping to take advantage of higher returns.

For the past 2 weeks, mining stocks were in play but I didn't join in.  Instead, I started investing on Power since these are the fundamentally good yet relatively cheap stocks as based on COL's assessment on each FV.

As of today, my current portfolio is composed of:
EDC - 40%
FGEN - 25%
MPI - 25%
SCC - 10%

SCC went back down to 137  (PD: aep@138.8), and I am thinking if I should buy more.  Though this stock has a huge resistance at 143, and a breakout signal at 145.

MPI just met up with its 1yr resistance at 3.8, but still needs to have a convincing breakout at around 3.9 before it goes to reach the 4.xx level.  I might need to sell if it bounces downwards from resistance; hold if otherwise. Or, since Doyts is heavily buying on MPI,  the time that they sell, would be the time that I should sell too!

FGEN remains to be a laggard, also meeting some resistance at 14.  I think FGEN is just slowly consolidating before it pumps up again.  Currently doing sideways.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Re-Entry

 Citiseconline declares a bull market until next year, even increasing most FVs of companies in the PSE.  This gives additional boost to investor confidence (at least to the local market),up:gucci bags

As I have been liquid these past few days, I am now itching to re-enter the market in bullish mode.  Mining stocks are currently in play right now, unfortunately I have already missed the train.

Despite the market being in a bullish frenzy (overbought conditions are being ignored), I am still trying to be cautious for as to avoid a whiplash.  I wanted to enter PX this morning, however the huge  gap up from 14.4 to 15.26 disabled me to do so.  JGS was also of interest for me, considering the nearing IPO of Cebu Pacific on October.  My cheapskate bids were far off from the opening prices.

Since the stocks on momentum seem to be already high up, I tried searching for relatively "cheap stocks", aiming my guns on VLL and MPI.  News about MPI liquidation by PLDT scared a chunk of shareholders which gave buying opportunity to investors.  My buying indicators already showed a buy at 3.61 after bouncing off near 3.53.  I should have not hesitated on buying since its RSI indicator is no longer in the overbought region.



When I decided to buy at 3.61, the stock eventually rose up fast, making me catch up until I was able to buy at 3.67.  Momentum2 indicators show a cross at the signal line, which makes me a bit comfortable despite buying at a higher price.  "Buy high, sell higher", as they say.

I have sliced off again on my SCC, taking profits on strength.

PD:
25% MPI
25% FGEN
12.5% EDC
12.5% SCC
25% cash

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Major Shakeout

The market had experienced a major shakeout today as most stock prices had a gap up during opening then suddenly lowered down in the middle.  It was supposed to be a good time to buy stocks but the bearish people (me included) are already scared to re-enter the market immediately.  Apparently, prices went back up for some strong stocks but was not able to continue breaking the 4k mark on the PSEi.

Perhaps there was a rush to break the 4k mark for the PSEi, and then people decided to take in profits which eventually led to the index's momentary fall.

I still feel strong for my SCC despite being shaken down to 134.  It's good to note that it has taken back its position closing at 139 (at least) for 14% of today's volume trade.   A bit of a warning though for SCC, as it nearly showed a bearish engulfing signal.  MACD also registered lower divergence.  The crossing and positive divergence remains to be good for the stock, so it's a make or break.up:gucci bags

I was able to enter FGEN during the dip as it reached my first signal buy of 12.5, considering the gap up at the opening. In hindsight, re-entering EDC @1.4, even @1.32 could have been better.  It seems I have been to pre-occupired by the shakeout and fear got me.  Anyway, fundamentally, FGEN could be better since it still has a long way to go towards its target price at 19; as compared to EDC's 7.54 (COL).

DOW-J is currently positive (+30) as of this writing.  I honestly don't know what to do now, but for now I guess holding would be a good decision.  I really need to fix my schedule (trading, tutoring and studying).

PD:
50% cash
40% SCC
10% FGEN

Monday, September 13, 2010

SCC, Good to Go, Sir!

With a DOW-J closing at +48 last weekend, PSEi has been on an extended rally and remains bullish until now.  Index gained 70pts today and is already near the 4000 mark.  This can be easily broken by tomorrow as the Philippine stock market is currently enjoying a positive momentum.up:gucci handbags

MEG is a strong winner today, having its stock and 2 warrants included in the top10 gainers.  I saw MEGW2 bottom out at 1.10 this morning, too bad I wasn't ready to enter into new grounds yet.  MEGW1 and MEGW2 closed at 1.3x levels while MEG is strong at 2.3.

I have been busy handling my 2 stocks this morning: SCC and EDC.  EDC had a gap up from 5.26 to 5.31 until its ascent to 5.47.  As soon as I sensed the decline of prices, I was able to sell my shares @5.44 (9:44am) having a favorable 10.26% net profit.  A shakeout occurred making EDC reach 3.35 before going back up again towards the end, closing at 5.5.

I plan to re-enter in EDC allotting 25% @5.34 and 50% @5.27.  Buy during 10am onwards.

I remain bullish with my SCC despite having a shakeout with the price dipping towards 137.  During the shakeout, I was able to buy 60 shares at the first drop at 140, then another 40 shares at 137.  At around 1030am, it went regaining back up to the close at 141.9.
I am hoping for a gap up tomorrow, as the MACD signals a buy for SCC.  Will see if it could breach the 145 mark by tomorrow.  I plan to sell my first 200 shares at around 145, then re-enter at 136, if able.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Let's Play ALI

ALI has been good to me ever since I have started trading, always welcoming me with profits.  ALI has also been quite a tease pushing and pulling the PSE index with its high-low combinations on its closing prices.up:gucci bags

Just recently last week, ALI jumped on the close from 18 to 18.7; too bad my shares got bitten as it was sold at 18.  I now plan my re-entry as I expect it to open at a lower price again, just like what happened last time.



20% is allotted at 17.4
30% on 17.16
50% on 16.8
increase buying below 16.8 with an immediate support at 16.2

Buying on the 16.xx level is good since TP from COL is at 19.75 (as of 9/8/10).

Friday, September 10, 2010

On a High

It was my first day at graduate school today (1st class at 1pm) so I was not able to monitor the market until its close.up:gucci handbags

Last night's DOW-J was green and so I was still expecting a longer run for EDC at 5.28.  Gen. DS declared a buy at 5.2, and so I have decided to take hold of my shares yet, cancelling my exit.  The price did go up higher at 5.37 then eventually went back down closing @ 5.26.  In hindsight, selling at my original target exit was ok, but I need to find a new target entry.  EDC's FV is at 7.54 (as of 9/8) which means the stock is still cheap. 

The market started strongly with SCC having a gap up to 134 (+4) at the opening, reaching 140 before 10am.  This is already a paper gain of 7% for me, even better than the magic of ALI.  My tipster, Gen. DS, sold at 140 and was planning on re-entering at 135.  I guess he was able to enter at 136.  Multiple entries with SCC is great since break-even can be easily achieved at a peso per share cost.  Fluctuations should have been in tenths (0.x), but just like what had happened this morning, it went by the peso.  If DOW-J would show weakness, I'd aim for at least 140, if not, I could wait until 150.  Buy the dips, 20% per decrease of 3.  Currently closed @139.

Since I already need to leave, I just posted a sell order for my ALI @18.  This was supposed to be a "delayed sale" after the intraday jump and so I have set this as my exit target.  Another surprise move at the close; if only I have set my order a bit higher than 18, then I could have been given a bonus for the 18.7 close of ALI.  DBP-Daiwa is again buying bullishly forcing the close at these levels.  Definitely not a fluke.  Let's see how they play.  I'll be waiting for the dips on monday.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Feeling Bullish

As many have expected, I was not able to sell my ALI shares @18 during the opening since it started at a low of 16.5  Holding ALI for the meantime is not a problem for me since I had just bought it about 2 days ago.  Too bad though that I could've had achieved a personal record if only I was able to sell immediately.  But with a red DOW-J from last night, buying up would still be a hard thing to do for investors.up:gucci bags

ALI's performance this day was still impressive.  Starting at 16.50, it slowly came up towards 17.7 before sliding back down to 17.3.  Disregarding the forced buy up yesterday, ALI still proves to be in an upward trend, posting a new low at 16.44.  I am looking at an immediate sale @17.78, but I can still wait further when it reaches the 18 mark.

With 50% cash on my portfolio, I tried following some tips coming from DS by buying SCC shares @129.5.  Technicals show a "bullish engulfing" candlestick, and at the same time the narrowing of bollinger bands has been observed.  Check also the change in MTM2.

Company Disclosure also says that one of their directors bought shares at around 127.  Let's see if we can sell at my TP of 148. :D

As for my EDC, I've checked on my charts hoping I could sell at at least at 5.11. As the price seems to be stable reaching 5.08, I decided to sell a slice at this price and leave the rest at 5.11.  Interestingly, the price was closed at 5.05; however, pre-closing bids was set at 5.10.  This made my 5.08 bid be taken away and was rewarded with a bonus of .02 per share.  Closing period interests me now.  I realize how much sellers of ALI at the close had gained yesterday, when it jumped to 18.  Just wow. 

Note to self:  Sell at the close on a down market.

The Magic of ALI

A few weeks ago, ALI had a "super discount sale" ,  rumored to be due to human error from a broker at ATR.  Stocks were sold @14, 2 Pesos lower from the ongoing price at around 16 per share.  PSE index had a major pulldown that day because of ALI.  Eventually, ALI pulled back up the following day when it was traded at around 15 during the opening (and even rose further upwards).

After trading back at "normal" levels, ALI had been silently moving towards its upward direction.  Thinking that I should move in back to property stocks, I was able to reposition myself with ALI, albeit on a slightly earlier time.

And so I was a bit sad realizing that I still need to practice more on my buy and sell indicators/strategy.  Since I didn't expect ALI to bounce back upwards as it is still on its RSI high, I had just been monitoring my EDC shares hoping to find a good exit.


My dental appointment was scheduled on this day, so I had no choice but to leave my stocks and hope that nothing bad would happen abruptly.  Today was also a tennis day for me and my friend, so I was only able to go home at around 5pm.

Lo and behold!  I got amazed that ALI had been traded at 18 during closing!  This gives me around 7% paper gain in only 1 day!  And since my picking of ALI yesterday was based mainly on my decision, I felt proud of myself.  (But I think it's really just luck! hehe)up:gucci handbags

BUT... one should not count the golden eggs yet, as this is still just a paper gain.  Going back to the Time Sales, I found out that ALI was trading at 16.9 then jumped to 18 at the close.  The trade started with a cross-sale within S.B. Securities, then lots of brokers participated in the killing.  DBP-Daiwa bought solidly while ATR had cross trades in the millions.

This is a very interesting sight for me, since I still have my shares with me.  The big question is, could I be able to sell at the 18.xx price point?  Target: Lock in on profits, sell @18!

Monday, September 6, 2010

Extended Rally

With EDC left on my helm (75% cash), I wasn't able to enjoy today's fanfare for an extended rally.  I think my technical indicators are overextended, that I should decrease my stops to achieve proper exit/entry strategies.

Though I did plan to wait near the close, I believe EDC sale @5.11 is a good price exit.  At around 11am, EDC was already running at 5.07 levels.  I was not yet convinced to sell through since there would be no trading at the US markets due to labor day.  Hopefully, positive momentum is still on our side.up:gucci bags

Since being cash-ready puts me in a position to be a buyer, I have been marking up stocks that could be a possible buy.  For now, most are already in oversold conditions.  I have been eyeing on property stocks lately, and tried to position myself into ALI.  Another proof that my stops have been overextended as my buy order got hit @ 16.78, while the price went down further to 16.3.  If I have followed the ideal stop, I could get it at exactly that price.

I definitely have many more to learn.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Refresh

Lost a week's post because of the deleted database on one of my subdomains (my fault).  Too bad since I was on a blogging spree due to the bountiful market last week, plus I had with me charts coming from COL.

Anyway, now I'm 75% cash ready for this week, hoping not to repeat my earlier mistakes of eagerly getting in the market. 

DOW-J ended favorably last Friday with a +130 on its scales.  It seems that PSE's market would still be on the rise tomorrow.  This would be good for my EDC as it has already surpassed break-even levels.  I should be ready on my exit which has been one of my problems last weekend.up:gucci handbags
EDC Chart via Citiseconline
 I'm looking at an exit @5.2 , but with the positive effect of DOW, I shall wait near the close.

General DS of FM has now issued his last free POW.  Though I have not been to dependent on it, I guess I should take advantage of his tips now while it's free and available. So far, I'm currently looking in the following stocks:

RFM:
-consistent long term uptrend
-still looking for more entry signals.  Might be a sideways to down on the short term.
-buy@1.79
-RSI = 61.6

PNB:
-#2 of DS' POW
-sideways to up trend
-buy below 42
-RSI = 54.7

Buy on the dips on Property Stocks:
MEG - 1.92 ; FLI - 1.17; ALI - 15.9

DMC - Reentry @21.25

Friday, September 3, 2010

Freedom!

What a boo-boo!  I have deleted a subdomain on my web account, and it seems that my Trade On wordpress blog has been linked to its database!  Now I'm back here at blogspot, and good thing there is an undelete function.  Unfortunate to me, this week's posts have been gone to waste!  I hope I would be able to return to it soon.up:gucci bags

Anyway, this week has been good for PSE in general, as most stocks came up on a rise.  This is due to a favorable gain from DOW-J.

As I had been reeling in the beginning for having a reddish portfolio by the end of August,  this Friday, I was able to unload 75% of my hold while the remaining one is on the green.

Next week, I'll be on the lookout for good buys on the market.  I promise to myself that I shouldn't enter unless I'm going to be sure of it.

PD:
On 9/2:
- sold JGS @ 18.78  for a small net profit of 1.62%.  If I have waited just a day longer, 9/3 closed at a high of 19.5 (5.5%!)  I was holding this stock too long, which led me to be eager on releasing it ASAP.

- I nearly sold EDC at break-even, but COL became buggy at my end, disabling me to trade that day.  It turned out to be a good thing as EDC went up high the next day and closed @5.02 giving me some paper profit.


Today:
- sold DMC for a net profit of 4.33%.  It had a breakout closing at 23.2, that could have been 7.1% net.
- sacrifice sale of DGTL @ 1.42 for a loss of 2.46%.

Although I am happy now that I have cash on hand for future buys, at the same time having positive net gain, I still need to learn more on proper exits.  One notable mistake would be my eager trading at the early rounds.  I have sold my shares even before 10am.  I still need to learn on how to be patient, and wait on the prices to become stable.  Being too early cost me the chances of enjoying the breakout.